Juliancolton

-5

I was pretty shocked to see it when I got up. By the time I got to 84 on my way to Cold Spring for sunrise, my truck thermo was already up to +10. Pretty localized decoupling.

I just realized I'm a complete idiot and forgot that the Friday morning snow is included in those totals. That brings me much closer to the pack. Dumb.

OK, here we go. Here are the three closest observers to me. My LE is very much in-line with these, no issues there. The problem is that DT-8 and DT-12, located roughly equidistant from me in opposite directions, both measured 60% more snow than I did. I measured on my usual snow board in the middle of a big open field, far away from any obstructions and, therefore, drifting. The snow was dry but dense, consistent with heavily fractured crystals and a windswept storm. To add a little more data, I just went out and took some sample measurements throughout my yard of the loose snow depth sitting atop the crusty old pack that had been through many freeze/thaw cycles. I found one spot where my ruler went in 3.3" before hitting solid ice, but most were closer to 3.1". This encompasses 0.9" on Monday, 0.7" on Friday morning, and my apparent 2.3" Friday night to Saturday morning. The first two events were high-ratio, and likely compressed heavily with the weight of new snowfall (not to mention sublimation and any surface melting), but yesterday's snow wouldn't have been subject to nearly as much compaction after the end of the storm. This morning's "depth" makes it hard for me to believe that I severely under-measured. So, was saltation much more prevalent at my house vs. surrounding points for some reason? It was definitely windy, but I get the impression it was windy just about everywhere. I wish I could be sure I wasn't overlooking something obvious.

Not sure why folks are laughing, lol. I was being serious. That's generally how it goes here. I downslope on just about any wind direction and my south-facing hill is very poor for pack retention, but I radiate extremely well as a rule.

The bottom absolutely fell out up here. Low of -13F.

Verification based on closest reports from Albany and Upton PNS and NWSChat: HPN (Armonk): 8.4" (+1.6) SWF (Gardnertown): 4.0" (-0.5) MGJ (3 WSW Middletown): 3.5" (+0.6) POU (4 SSE Poughkeepsie): 2.5" (-0.9) Should have tightened up the gradient a bit, but not bad.

Hmm, I didn't expect that much of a difference. I feel quite confident in my core sample, so either I under-measured my snow or we really did just take different routes to get to the same place. I'll have to corroborate with cocorahs reports in the morning.

My 2.3" melted down to .33" for an epic ratio of 7:1.

I've been intrigued by that for a few days now. It's exactly the kind of 50F rainer mirage that slowly but surely resolves into a nice thump ending as a little drizzle. On the other hand, after the last few storms, I take the Euro about as seriously as that NASA model someone posted out of left field.

The same here. Please just kill me if I ever again spend 10 days tracking 2.3" of snow.

I know the feeling, I'd have 16" if it would just snow more.

Little bit of a band taking shape just east of the NY/CT border. Danbury probably approaching 1"/hr rates. With the low jetting off to the NE now I don't think there's much room left for westward progress of heavier snow.

There's something so nostalgic about WeatherTap radar during big storms.

I'll attempt an averaged measurement in a bit but it can't be more than 2". Bitterly cold at 5F

The GFS doesn't calculate snowfall forecasts, that's up to model vendor algorithms. Thanks for the attempted sanctimony, though.

There's so much more to snow-liquid ratios than just column temp and wind. There are lots of great resources available online that explain the crosshair method of snow growth forecasting. That will get you much closer to realistic expectations than simply assuming that colder is better.

Choose your adventure: 1) 500mb looks epic, the surface has to respond 2) meteorology not modelology 3) ratios will be good, don't worry about QPF

I have a feeling that 3-6" might not be good with you, though

You don't see too many dril references on here.

Good. Save the ice, as we have all wished from the beginning. Nothing dim about it here, it's turning into a bona fide nice day. Heavy, heavy taking down of Christmas lights.

0.7" new snow in central Dutchess. The sun angle genuinely is working its magic, as most paved surfaces have already melted out.

Well, right or wrong, the time has come for my final call. Time is running out for those of us in the interior NW burbs to realize a major storm. The mesos are not only correcting east a bit but also trending toward more strung-out cyclogenesis, which will focus the precip shield along the SW/NE axis. I no longer believe we're in contention for the deform band, and in fact may spend most of the time under enhanced subsidence. The WV loop, while a thing of beauty, shows no major surprises at this stage. HPN: 6.8" SWF: 4.5" MGJ: 2.9" POU: 3.4"

I was down in Fishkill right as the snow stopped and had never seen such vividly blue snow. Plow piles just emanating this deep turquoise glow. What a spectacle. Then I returned home and my lawn was emanating a nice green.