Juliancolton

If you said this about Lofoten or the outlying islands of Svalbard, then sure, but c'mon..

0.76" liquid equivalent for the event. Certainly not a dry system.

Almost the same deal here, 2.1" of sleet and now ZR. There's definitely a little bit of novelty with the sleet and how it behaves so much differently than snow, but it's a short-lived curiosity.

It is rather frustrating. I still think it'll be hard to escape the first half of March without a nice snowfall in the interior (although this winter has never backed down from a challenge).

Seems like precip will be shutting off within the hour except for some spotty snow or freezing rain showers. Not too shocked by the earlier end time... that happens. What an abysmal performance by the global models though. I thought the warmer mesos had a clue but still expected a two or three hour thump of snow before the flip.

So much spiking and dunking, so little snow.

Doesn't seem like any big surprises are in store tonight. My half-assed call: HPN: 2.9" MGJ: 4.3" SWF: 3.8" POU: 5.1" ALY: 8.6"

Great series of posts tonight.

I'm still leaning toward a warmer solution, along the lines of Upton's current map. The NAM, HREF, and even extended HRRR have fared well in sizing up mid-level WAA this season. Since they all introduce mixing into the interior, and given what we know about SWFEs in general, I think expectations should be tempered. The upside is that rates will be good to start out - that's a solid NW-SE fgn signature coinciding with the best upper-air support. Even where changeover is delayed/avoided, though, ratios will get progressively worse as the event wears on, with moisture becoming shallower and riming more prolific. Could be a fun event for many, but nobody in this subforum should be expecting a blockbuster.

8 posts in a row, impressive for a Wednesday night.

So are you confirming or denying that you don't have a brain?

The POU ASOS reached 68 at 12:45. Record is 69. Booo.

I think I would split the difference between the GFS and NAM, given their respective biases. The extended HRRR has shown some real skill with thermals this season, so I'll be watching that... maybe not as a primary guidance source, but definitely for corroboration. In another 24 hours, if it's GFS and RGEM vs. HRRR and NAM, I know which way I'd hedge. Also, we're really torching ahead of this front. 64/55 here and quickly spiking. Paying our first dews of the season.

No clue what you mean, people have been texting me that we're locked for 16" https://hudsonvalleypost.com/timeline-up-to-16-inches-of-snow-forecast-for-hudson-valley/

You can't tell that from the 850mb layer. The core of the warm tongue is quite a bit higher in the column, somewhere between 750 and 800.

Epically bad weather tonight. The stuff of legends.

ZR is the worst p-type overall but sleet is the dumbest. The Ralph Wiggum of hydrometeors.

Friday looks like a sleet fest to me. Hopefully wrong, but hard to imagine a ML warm tongue underperforming with relatively weak dynamics.

Yeah, can feel the draft throughout my house. Wind is a bummer.

Definitely intense for a few moments. About on par with the late Jan 2019 squall, I think. Added 0.2" here as well.

1.1" here at home from the first round.

Mod snow in New Paltz with nice flake size. Roads are becoming covered

Yeah, crazy. I dropped 10 degrees in 30 minutes in the 6 o'clock hour. Down to 38 from a high of 61 at.

The guys in the pattern thread are jinxing March with all due haste. Hate to see it.

58/47 here so far. This isn't a few hours of mild breezes ahead of the cold front. It's a legit torch.