Juliancolton

I'd love to see it develop 12-18 hours earlier, lest the best conveyor belt dynamics be relegated to NNE. That system is in its infancy there.

They should have sent a poet.

Measure that, you ingrate!

Something between a dusting and a coating here. 21/18

It's funny how quickly "you never want to be in the bullseye 7 days out" turns into "the day 7 threat is dead" when only one or two models at a time have you in the bullseye.

The airplane guy will have a conniption.

That's a good point about snowcover differences. The deeper the better for radiating. I'm down to about 1.5" of crunchy glacial refuse.

Strange night for sure in that regard. -15 in Bethel and -16 in Woodbourne stand out on a cursory look... wouldn't be surprised if a few hollows in Sullivan and/or western Orange touched -20. -5.8 was the low here. My general call held up nicely in and around the valley, at least.

-4.4 currently. Some impressive cold showing up in sheltered spots in the southern Catskills (I see you, -13 in Fallsburg)

7/-3 currently. My P&C got nudged up a bit to -2, so we'll see. The cirrus canopy is a good bit farther north than modeled... gotta get that out of here. As an aside, I'm going to become the Joker if this verifies.

I was actually thinking fairly pedestrian again. The models keep the northerly winds going through the night at 4-6 kts, enough to prevent most places from decoupling. The HRRR tries to calm things down toward 6z, but it's touch and go with pressure falls occurring to the south. We do have a pretty good jumping-off point though - I'm sitting at 16, down from a high of 17. With otherwise good conditions as you pointed out, it wouldn't take more than a couple hours of slack winds to really nosedive, so I will leave that possibility open. I'll go -5F for me and -3F for you. Our spread last Sunday was 3 degrees, so tighten that by a degree or so per the slightly breezier conditions.

I was gonna say... this region is like the Mecca of isolation a short drive from civilization. There are countless towns in Litchfield, Ulster, Pike, etc. where you can own a house miles from your neighbor, be unable to find a cell signal, and not have your road plowed until three days after it snows, while still being 90 minutes from the financial capital of the world.

Yeah, winding down here after a very pretty 1.0". Better than a sharp stick in the eye.

Yeah, I've never found a useful period for KPOU snowfall. It's a shame. Years ago, someone showed me these highly detailed average snowfall maps for the Appalachian Trail corridor, which includes a good swath of NNJ, the HV, and the Berks. I never found out too much about where the data comes from or what the period of record is. Still, given the lack of alternatives (plus how pretty they are), I do refer to them at times. https://weathercarrot.smugmug.com/Weathercarrot-photos/AT-Snow-Maps/

How's everybody doing on running snow totals? I have 8.6" YTD. I'm sure someone has the data to show that's only like 3" below average for the date, but subjectively it ranks up there with the all-time stinkers imby

The timing was abysmal though, no sugar-coating that part. Everything was starting to get that marshmallow look when I got up at 3:30 to measure, but of course it was slop by the time twilight rolled around.

Definitely nothing to write home about. Purely from an academic perspective, I think we did about as well as we could have given the setup. The valley stayed frozen for as long as the coldest guidance, and ended up near the upper bounds of the QPF progs. It could have easily been 1.5" followed by hours of alternating sleet and drizzle.

What a despicable slushy mess. It was pouring rain at times while I was clearing. Sun's out now, which is good for getting down to pavement, but would have been welcomed about 90 minutes ago...

The HRRR held its own too. I'm starting to like that model for marginal temp setups. Glad you guys cleaned up... I knew a good thump was in the cards, but definitely didn't see 8+ coming down the pipe Up to 40F here, meanwhile

3.4" measured just after the flip to sleet. Not terrible, all things considered. 31.6F

Snow growth sucks here and will probably not improve much through the evening. I still think west of the river stands to do better... more distance from the core of the mid-level warm tongue, less shadowing off the Taconics.

Snowing with decent intensity here in central Dutchess. Not sure I'd say it meets the moderate threshold yet. Coating on all surfaces.

Column is well-saturated by 9 pm on the HRRR. Maybe flakes start flying around 8?

I think folks west of the river are in for a nice front-end thump. Model trends have been good for speeding up precip onset and delaying the mid-level warmth a bit. Wouldn't be shocked to see someone in the OC get 6" before the mix.

Up to 23F here under mostly sunny skies. Sneaky nice day.