Juliancolton

With decent consistency from the models today, it's getting pretty hard to imagine any big snowfall totals east of the river on Monday. The eastern Cats could really clean up if the mid-levels are more like the GFS and less like the NAM

Yeah, some of the best storms have sleet or mid-level dryslot issues nearby. I had mixing in all three of those events. The Euro isn't far from something like that, albeit with a more progressive system overall.

At this stage, we're all pretty much in the same boat. All model guidance has been trending toward a more amplified storm, and a mixed-precip event is currently favored over an all-snow one. As Rob says though, it's a volatile upper-air pattern, so changes are likely. Climo and the cold antecedent airmass argue for at least some accumulating snow before any change to rain.

The strength and location of the West Coast cutoff low seems important... and it's worth noting that this run ingested recon data from that environment this evening

Our lows are always unremarkable in CAA regimes... we're far enough south that we need radiational cooling to get us below zero. This was a plenty cold airmass, with Albany's 12z 850mb temp of -26.3C falling just a few tenths short of the daily record. That's how you get impressively cold highs. In an ideal world, this cold high would park itself for a few days as we radiate down to like -15F the first post-fropa night, and then moderate a couple ticks with each passing day. Instead, we don't even get one good radiating night before the airmass gets usurped by + 850 anomalies.

Down to 3F currently. I think this is probably close to my low before the temp starts creeping up again.

Temp is still coasting downward here, more than an hour and a half after sunrise... but only to 7F, which is pretty meh for the widely advertised "bitter blast"

29.5F in central Dutchess with steady light rain. My driveway is glazed over and probably not passable, so just taking it easy at home for now.

Temp has risen from 11 to 18F in the last 40 minutes as the lightest SW flow gets underway. Just that quickly, the surface is recoupling with the airmass. Love this stuff.

Down to 12F/6F already - ideal radiating conditions so far this evening in advance of WAA onset. Surfaces are getting nice and cold to maximize ice accretion tomorrow.

Newburgh is basically Nunavut. We'll just use our snow machines and Zamboni-brand ice resurfacers to get around.

6F here currently, coldest morning of the season by some margin. A little fresh snowcover goes a long way.

My live tree stays up until it starts dropping needles (and being something of a horticulturalist, I know how to pick 'em). Lasted well into March a few years ago although late Jan/early Feb is more typical.

Shit. I'm so sorry, what an awful hand to be dealt to start the year. Keeping you and your family, especially your mom, in my thoughts. Let me know if I can do anything.

She's adorable. I've been missing my dogs lately... they always loved a good romp in the fresh snow. Thinking it might be time for another one soon.

My excuse is I've been zonked out the last few days from either the flu or a nasty cold (2x neggy tests so feel safe as far as that goes). Between that and not having much of a dog in the fight as you say, there was definitely no staying up for the 00z Euro... or the 12z on some days.

I didn't think KU-esque bands were on the table with this thing, but I guess I should know by now that if it's a coastal low, someone's getting 3-4"/hr rates. Very impressive. 2.2" here, looks nice but hard to get excited about

This leaves much to be desired in terms of moisture and mid-level lift. At least the air is cold enough to accommodate light snowfall rates. 1-3" still looks like a safe bet, with the hope that any localized enhancements within the initial WAA push can get one toward the high end of that range.

Agree. It's hard to envision big totals anywhere to be fair... I'd be a little surprised if anyone sees half a foot. Not one of our classic blockbuster fringe jobs, thankfully.

Not too much action up this way aside from some quick bursts of mixed precip in the last hour or so. Glad I don't have to travel south though.

Oh good, the OPC maps are back.

9F here with a persistent breeze overnight (something something real cold...) Nice to be watching a potential wintry event in the short-medium range. Not to insinuate anything about this threat in particular, but it's been quite a while since we've had a big storm during the month of January. 6.5" gets me my biggest January snowfall since 2011.

Despite staying dry today, the overcast streak continued. Tuesday was the last time my PWS recorded more than 100 w/m2 of solar irradiance.

At least this system is escorting out the soupy air that's been in place for days on end. Might even see the sun tomorrow.

33 and pouring rain, lovely...