Juliancolton

Nice, that's an awesome example. Biggest one I've seen from last night (twss)

-4 here. As an aside, the westward-moving pressure wavefront around midnight was quite a bit more pronounced around here than the first perturbation, might be worth checking your station again. I had a 1.7 mb drop in 5 minutes between 12:04 and 12:09. Here's the Walkill mesonet station with fully a 2-mb drop. I don't even care about the storm anymore. This stuff is way more fun, lol

I'm definitely no expert on wave propagation. Then again, I'm no expert on any of the things I carry on about here...

It's somewhere in there, if you squint your eyes. What's your refresh rate? You can *just* see it in my noisy 5-minute data.

I have it centered around 10:50 am. You can see the progression of the wave easily via the NY Mesonet... here are the stations at Buffalo (pressure wave at 10:35), Belleville (10:45), and Dover here in my neck of the woods (10:55). It loses a lot of amplitude as it moves away from the lakes and has to contend with terrain once again.

Already down to 4 here. We'll see where it ends up. Pipes are frozen despite my heat tape so that's a bummer. It was cool seeing my station pick up the pressure rise/fall couplet from the Tonga volcano. Nothing like places on the east coasts of water bodies, but still fascinating to me.

Made it down to -1 here earlier. The wind is a killer today...

We all hold the models in different levels of esteem. Some feel compelled to stay up late for the Euro a week ahead of time, while others are content to just wait and see what falls. It's all fair play. It must be said, though, for those so inclined, we've never had access to more free model data than we do now. In fact, with Pivotal and weather.us supplying free hi-res Euro graphics, I don't subscribe to any paid sites anymore. This is the golden age of wx info.

Fact check: true. Real snow comes from biological ice nuclei. Accept no imitations.

Banned

I wouldn't take it so personally. Opinions and personal best guesses are fair game here. I also feel it's going to be a tall order to verify Albany's current map for those of us in the valley. Hopefully I'm wrong.

With decent consistency from the models today, it's getting pretty hard to imagine any big snowfall totals east of the river on Monday. The eastern Cats could really clean up if the mid-levels are more like the GFS and less like the NAM

Yeah, some of the best storms have sleet or mid-level dryslot issues nearby. I had mixing in all three of those events. The Euro isn't far from something like that, albeit with a more progressive system overall.

At this stage, we're all pretty much in the same boat. All model guidance has been trending toward a more amplified storm, and a mixed-precip event is currently favored over an all-snow one. As Rob says though, it's a volatile upper-air pattern, so changes are likely. Climo and the cold antecedent airmass argue for at least some accumulating snow before any change to rain.

The strength and location of the West Coast cutoff low seems important... and it's worth noting that this run ingested recon data from that environment this evening

Our lows are always unremarkable in CAA regimes... we're far enough south that we need radiational cooling to get us below zero. This was a plenty cold airmass, with Albany's 12z 850mb temp of -26.3C falling just a few tenths short of the daily record. That's how you get impressively cold highs. In an ideal world, this cold high would park itself for a few days as we radiate down to like -15F the first post-fropa night, and then moderate a couple ticks with each passing day. Instead, we don't even get one good radiating night before the airmass gets usurped by + 850 anomalies.

Down to 3F currently. I think this is probably close to my low before the temp starts creeping up again.

Temp is still coasting downward here, more than an hour and a half after sunrise... but only to 7F, which is pretty meh for the widely advertised "bitter blast"

29.5F in central Dutchess with steady light rain. My driveway is glazed over and probably not passable, so just taking it easy at home for now.

Temp has risen from 11 to 18F in the last 40 minutes as the lightest SW flow gets underway. Just that quickly, the surface is recoupling with the airmass. Love this stuff.

Down to 12F/6F already - ideal radiating conditions so far this evening in advance of WAA onset. Surfaces are getting nice and cold to maximize ice accretion tomorrow.

Newburgh is basically Nunavut. We'll just use our snow machines and Zamboni-brand ice resurfacers to get around.

6F here currently, coldest morning of the season by some margin. A little fresh snowcover goes a long way.

My live tree stays up until it starts dropping needles (and being something of a horticulturalist, I know how to pick 'em). Lasted well into March a few years ago although late Jan/early Feb is more typical.

Shit. I'm so sorry, what an awful hand to be dealt to start the year. Keeping you and your family, especially your mom, in my thoughts. Let me know if I can do anything.