mob1

11/5/2

Cloud tops are warming a bit, but I think this might be pretty normal during the daytime and is not necessarily indicative of gradual weakening. Either way, the stage has already been set for a devastating storm surge and even if the storm does weaken upon landfall it won't make a huge difference in that regard.

Absolutely stunning presentation

Definitely. I'd be very surprised if the threat doesn't shift significantly south and/or is tempered altogether.

10 percent hatched tornado proba for Dallas.

That cell near Centralia looks like it's about to go off. Edit; it kind of petered out. Stroms are having a tough time becoming surface-based.

Morning convection is pretty scattered, might not help alleviate mixing issues most models show. Interesting day ahead, parameters warrant the moderated risk but it's one of those days that can easily yield very little with the capping issues advertises (and whatever does develop might struggle to become surface based). On the flip side of this, spacing likely won't be an issue and if cells can take advantage of the environment they can go bunkers. Definitely high bust potential, but can also end up being a big day if just a few cells can really get going.

Looks like something is developing east of Gainesville, could probably use a TW soon.

Tornado emergency for that storm now. Looks like it'll hit a fairly populated area on the south side of Covington.

I hope there are no structures in the oath of that western TN tornado, velocities have been absolutely bonkers.

Good God

That cell near Wynne AR has a beautiful structure

Now confirmed TOG. If it can outrun the line to it's west a bit, it'll be trouble.

That cell near Hedrick IA looks nasty

Wow

Pretty strong rotation on the cell headed just north of Little Rock

Pretty wild depiction. HRRR can sometimes be very inconsistent with moisture returns, but in this particular case it has a large swath of 65 degree dew points up to northern IL.

First tornado warning of the day out for Western Arkansas.

You have a snow map? Never mind, it was posted in the New England thread and looks pretty good.

Inch here

Pretty nasty couplet headed towards Jefferson Texas. Edit; a bit broader on the last few scans

Closing in on an inch (on colder surfaces, though the pavement is covered as well) in Staten Island and snow is still coming down nicely. It's a shame that the radar shows a large lull in precipitation in about 30-40 minutes as the next batch will probably be rain or mixed precipitation.