mob1

16 degrees in Central Park with a DP of -13. Models show the column saturating relatively quickly once the precipitation moves in, but some virga is to be expected.

It's possible. Very often in storms like this models underforecast the low level cold initially, but later in the forecast period the opposite is actually true. I've seen the city be stuck in the 20s all day in SWFE events despite models having it higher, then jump to the 40s or even higher towards the tail end when the dry slot approaches and/or the primary cutting north and west of us. With that said, the wind direction here argues against that. Maybe if coastal moves so far north that it actually bisects LI.

Yeah, that's what I mean, not piles in a parking lot.

Staten Island (I should really update that). I have about 300-400' elevation and don't get nearly the foot or car traffic I had in Brooklyn and it makes a big difference. I'll take and post a pic in a minute

I still have surprisingly decent snow coverage here, so technically this counts as the fabled snow on snow people north of me always talk about.

I was in Belleayre last Wednesday and conditions were already excellent, it's going to be beyond epic this week. I'm pretty much out of vacation days, but can always get sick

Both

RGEM is fine, stops the bleeding for now.

What an ugly 18Z suite so far. If it looks the same at 0Z, totals will have to come down by a lot.

I think 4-8" is the right forecast now till you get to 25+ miles north and west of the city.

That's 12Z, the new run is a lot further north.

NAM gets you to 32 for a bit, and if it's right about the primary being that strong and holding on for so long, it can be even warmer. Still snow and sleet with frigid temperatures to start, but when you can't just say it's cold when the entire dynamics change and it's entirely possible that a large chunk of coastal areas get to or above freezing.

For areas getting sleet on that frame, the issue is below 700 mb.

I'll add one. No single NYC proper airport or ASOS site (JFK, EWR, LGA, and NYC) will report double digit snowfall totals.

Sleet at least adds up and makes the snowpack last, we want to avoid rain though (NAM shows a bit at the tail end for southern parts of the city). Just need the NAM 30-40 miles south and I honestly don't care if we flip to sleet a bit earlier than modeled.

Sleet is all but guaranteed for most of us in the end, what I'm looking at now is heavier precipitation before the switch.

We'll see when the money frames come out, but so far the NAM seems marginally improved.

It's always far too cold/snowy in this range for this type of storm. It's a well known bias, and it can be pretty extreme sometimes.

Plus it's the shallowest of warm layers (something that heavy rates can perhaps overcome). Either way, it's hard to imagine that being ZR.

Relatively speaking (to what I was responding to). For me personally, 6 inches would be a success and anything more gravy. Less than 6 would hurt a bit

Surface temps aren't the issue though, it's the warm nose in the mid levels that are screwing us. No amount of cold waters will offset that.

GFS is always too progressive overall, kills off primaries too quickly, and sucks at thermal profiles that mesoscale models excel at. I'd be cautious with it when it's so different than other models.

Sleet has some serious staying power though, it would preserve the snowmaking for a while (though in this case it's crazy cold afterwards so it wouldn't matter).

The NAM is beautiful. I'd much rather have the thermals trend favorably and then figure out the precipitation distribution and intensity than the other way around.