mob1

Finally hit 32 here. Light snow continues but is finally sticking to all surfaces. Streets are now fully covered.

Radar hole quickly filling in

Flurries in Staten Island.

3K NAM much improved as well.

It was already pretty good to begin with so it's encouraging to see.

RGEM looks awesome

It was a bit better than I thought, but overall I think it's time to temper expectations a bit.

3K NAM also moved SE, with 1-2" for the area now.

Not a good start. HRRR doesn't look great either.

Overnight trends were discouraging, hopefully the 12Z runs are a bit better but for now the only model that improved is the 6Z Euro.

But there's this one unincorporated town in Morris County NJ that lost a hundredth of an inch so technically everyone was right. All kidding aside, the difference is negligible. I just hope we slowly increase QPF amounts from here on out.

Decide for yourselves...

Here's the sounding from the GFS for his area (roughly), that's actually decent temps for the dendritic growth zone but the winds at height probably argue against really good ratios. Precipitation rates also come into play here as you'd need something heavier (like the NAM shows) to get proper dynamic cooling. Light rates with a surface temperature of just about freezing won't do much. A general rule that would serve people well is that for coastal areas the ratios don't usually exceed the standard 10-1. There any obviously plenty of exceptions but more often than not it's best to ignore ratios for the coastal plain.

For skiers, this has been a fantastic start to the season. Belleayre is nearly fully open, which is exceedingly rare for this time of year, and VT is faring extremely well. In general, even if nothing pans out, I'd rather cold with at least the prospects of some snow threats than warmth. It's exciting and the emotional roller coaster is part of it, it's similar to how I root for terrible sports teams (something about hope being eternal).

Such a crap model

ICON completely lost Sunday's wave

Canadian has the wave on the 14th as well (albeit a weak one)

We hope and pray

Was a nice surprise this morning to wake up to a dusting here in Staten Island. Now I'm ready for some real snow.

GFS looks nothing like the Euro and is significantly warmer than its own 12Z run. North and west of the city still make out well. Pretty good for the ski resorts.

EWR, JFK, and LGA all gusting to 45 mph now. Decent winds here but nothing particularly noteworthy.

Recon is going in on a SE to NW pass

All kidding aside, they're already gusting past 60 mph there.

There's supposed to be one, but it's been going in circles next to Haiti so I'm not sure what's happening.

Yeah...