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Everything posted by Blizzard-on-GFS
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Yeah I WAS skeptical, but after looking over all the 0z model runs. Seems like tight consensus for another 18-22" for us. So when this thing gets cranking and pivoting, things might change quick. Dew point is currently at 31 so as soon as this next band rolls through I think we start cooking.
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18.5" MAX over my house in Manahawkin, NJ. HRRR prints out another 20" here in south jersey. I only have 2" so far so I hope I cash in when these bands start pivoting.
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Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Blizzard-on-GFS replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
WOOF. I'm in a good spot in Manahawkin,. I'm hoping this deathband pivots over me. Where ever it pivots on is going to get clocked. -
"I'm playing both sides that way I always end up on top" [emoji23] Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk
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Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Blizzard-on-GFS replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
I'm riding out the storm at my parents house in Manahawkin New Jersey and I think we have a real chance at 30 in down there. Going to be a historic storm. I'm hoping this will be the best snow storm I've ever seen in my life as a 34 year old. Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk -
For me at the Jersey shore in Ocean county this might be the best model of run I've ever viewed ever for my town lol going to be 3 ft at least Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk
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I feel like that goes for really any of the major models. When one model is absolutely locked on to a solution with consistency you have to give it greater consideration. Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk
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A lot of you guys are going to owe the GFS a big apology after this storm wrecks us lol Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Blizzard-on-GFS replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Ripping snow in Bordentown, NJ Sent from my SM-F966U1 using Tapatalk -
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Blizzard-on-GFS replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
lmao you beat me to it! I was about to post this hahah. Day After Tomorrow Vibes! -
Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed
Blizzard-on-GFS replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Hey that's 2" for my house in CNJ, I TAKE. LOL. not gonna happen.... -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion
Blizzard-on-GFS replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
so cool! thanks for the heads up! Also, that Timelapse I stunning. I've always wanted to see the northern lights my whole life so hopefully tonight is the night!- 1,105 replies
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- tropics
- heavy rainfall
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2024 Obs/Discussion
Blizzard-on-GFS replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Thanks for the awesome explanation! Based on this chart, can you give a rough prediction for the next time window we might see the lights again in our area? I missed the first round!- 1,105 replies
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- tropics
- heavy rainfall
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(and 5 more)
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check out the massive differences below. 10” for CNJ on 10-1 vs 2” on snow depth. That should always be a tell tale sign.
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One thing I’ve learned from this is if temperatures are iffy, always use the snow depth snow maps, or look at soundings. Kuchera and 10-1 maps were completely off, even the 12z Kuchera this morning were printing out over 8 inches of snow for central New Jersey when most places in that area ended up with 1-2” at best. I remember last night the RGEM snow depth had about 1 to 3 inches for the area so it was pretty dang close and it was also pretty good for north and west areas where it had 6 to 8 inches modeled.
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Epic Bust here in CNJ happy for the NW crew though. We got less than 2" and it has all been completely melted by mid-afternoon here in Bordentown, NJ. Kind of amazing how every model this morning had 4-8" for the area. Probably got around 1.5" if that....
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That 1-3” zone is going to bust terribly. Should be at least 4-8”
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i-95 CRUSHJOB!
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Starting to buy into the idea of an area-wide 5-10". With real heavy rates.
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BARK BARK!
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Yes, slightly but the whole idea that this is going to be nothing but rain for odd 95 is definitely a doomer attitude. This is legitimate threat for I 95.
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Well, well well, the “it’s going to trend north Crew” is in shambles right now lol.
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January 19, 2024 Powder Snow Event
Blizzard-on-GFS replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Ripping snow down in Manahawkin, radar looks great down here, we only saw a little over an inch with the earlier bands. This is our chance here for accumulations. SE Jersey coast looks to be in good shape. Waiting/hoping that this band pivots into an inverted trough as the low pulls away. Gonna be real interesting to see if that feature ends up setting up or not. -
Waiting from them to drop a TOR warning on that bucks county cell. Rotation keeps strengthening
