Roger Smith

Extreme Forecast Update -- August 2018 Rjay (+3.0 all three) scores three for the eastern locations (DCA, NYC, both +2.9 and BOS +5.3). Roger Smith (+2.5, +3.5) scores two for ORD (+3.9) and SEA (+2.7). Don Sutherland (+0.1) scores one for DEN (-0.1) , Normal also gets a win. For PHX (+0.4), wxdude64 (+0.8) and Normal have wins, RodneyS (-0.9) has a loss. updated annual standings Roger Smith __________13###-0 (can fall to 10-0 see below) RodneyS _____________ 7-3 RJay ________________ 7-2 __ Normal ____________ 6-5 wxdude64 ____________ 5-0 AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0 Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see below) DonSutherland1 ________4-1 wxallannj _____________3-0 Scotty Lightning (SD)____3-1 so_whats_happening ___ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 2-0 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 Stebo ________________ 1-0 BKViking ______________1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0 Tom _________________ 0-1 * no decision (Mar for IAH) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- # wins excluding "a few Univ b n" will be withdrawn if a few Univ b n enters a third contest.

The clock has run out on TD6 as a potential named storm in August, the 03z advisory maintains it as a tropical depression, so its future exploits (if any) will belong to September. The scores listed above will now become confirmed for the contest to date.

+3.1 _ +3.4 _ +3.8 __ +2.5 _ +0.7 _ +0.7 __ +2.4 _ +0.8 _ +1.0

Just for clarification, the contest rules state that storms that begin their life cycle in a given month then go on to count in that month regardless of when they begin the higher stages, but I always score both ways so people can compare. It has often happened in past contests that an Aug 30 or 31 storm becomes a hurricane in early September (all counting for August). As to the timing of the named storm portion, that has been based on EDT in the past contests, not UTC. That effectively means that 03z is the cutoff for this system (No. 6) to count in August. If it isn't a tropical storm by 03z, its further development goes into September. Classification as T.D. Six would not change the timing. I can't see anyone being adversely affected by Florence hitting the books for August so I think we're all rooting for this -- most scores would gain about 2 or 3 points.

12z GFS shows Jebi striking the central Honshu coast on Tuesday around 10-12z (late evening Japanese time) with central pressures remaining sub-920 mb. Looks very similar to Katrina on these maps. The current landfall zone is south of Osaka placing Nagoya and Chita in the forward sector but Osaka and Kyoto very close to the fast-moving eye as it swerves northeast. I've been advising travelling friends who at this point are booked into hotel in Kyoto 1st to 4th but main point being this could shift either way so at this point just as safe to be there as Tokyo or far western Honshu. The models have been fairly consistent for days although speeding up the landfall, with respect to central Honshu as the target. Could be a high impact storm for any of these large cities or even Tokyo especially if track shifts east at all. On this track looks like Tokyo would see cat-1 conditions while Nagoya and Chita could see as high as cat-4. You also have to wonder if a significant earthquake would be imminent given these approaching tidal stresses.

The contests are quite close, be sure to enter on time for September before the Labor Day weekend (and have a good one) ... As always, predict the temp anomaly (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 for DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ DEN_PHX_SEA Good luck !!

--- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - Aug 2018 ====>>>> -- ----   Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. ... May (none in July) best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked* ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five three months including May by end of year (did not in June, did in July, not in Aug). ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months) ... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^ ... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already). ... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #) ... same thing entirely for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now) ... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. ... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn.  FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores Roger Smith ________536 _556 _528 ___1620 ____ 438 _526 _360 ____1324 ___ 2944 __2*3*2 13*1 .2.1 __ MAY DonSutherland.1 ___ 472 _464 _474 ____1410 ____ 383 _522 _425 ____1330 ___ 2740 ___ 000 220 .0.1 wxallannj __________ 456 _484 _496 ____1436 ____ 396 _432 _473 ____1301 ___ 2737 ___ 001 001 .0.0 hudsonvalley21 _____ 437 _444 _440 ____1321 ____ 371 _481 _541 ___ 1393___ 2714 ___ 000 001 .0.1 jaxjagman _________ 458 _428 _464 ____1350 ____ 395 _486 _465 ____1346 ___ 2696 ___ 001 000 .0.1 ___Consensus ______ 441 _445 _478 ____1364 ____ 391_478 _451 ____1320 ___ 2684 ___ 000 100 .0.0 BKViking ___________435 _477 _492 ____1404 ____ 353 _467 _457 ____1277 ___ 2681 ___ 001 000 .0.1 wxdude64 _________ 481 _462 _428 ____1371 ____ 368 _464 _437 ____1269 ___ 2640 ___24^0 002 .2.0 Scotty Lightning (SD) _467 _461 _466 ___ 1394 ____ 393 _441 _411 ____1245 ___ 2639 ___2^11 102 .2^.1 _ JAN^ RJay ______________408 _446 _459 ____1313 ____ 315 _470 _477 ____1262 ___ 2575 ___ 122 001 .2.1 __ APR, AUG Tom ______________ 417 _445 _471 ____1333 ____ 353 _481 _407 ____1241 ___ 2574 ___ 001 000 .0.0 __ JUN Stebo _____________ 389 _396 _436 ____1221 ____ 405 _466 _452 ____1323 ___ 2544 ___ 000 111 .0.1 RodneyS ___________416 _448 _440 ____1304 ____ 375 _420 _430 ____1225 ___ 2529 ___ 210 200 .0.3 _ MAR, JUL ___Normal _________438 _433 _429 ____1300 ____ 372 _453 _327 ____1152 ___ 2452 ___ 001 111 .0.0 __ JAN^ dmillz25 ___________ 386 _375 _393 ____1154 ____ 358 _460 _466 ____1284 ___ 2438 ___ 000 011 .0.0 so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB mappy (5/8) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx _(5/8)_179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (2)_114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0 Mercurial (2/8) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/8)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/8) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/8) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: * so_whats_happening missed July all shown (2/7) missed March to August, Orangeburgwx (5/8) missed January, July, August.  ... mappy (5/8) missed June to Aug, and H2OTown_wx (3/8) missed April to August.   Part Two: Western and All Nine contests  ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals  for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring  FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 448 _ 592 _ 498 ____ 1538 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 4177 (= 2) BKViking _______________374 _ 568 _ 502 ____ 1444 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 4125 (= 4) __ JUN DonSutherland.1 ________ 448 _ 540 _ 443 _____1431 __________2^1 1 __ Jan _______4171 (= 3) _ JAN^ RodneyS_______________ 464 _ 558 _ 401 ____ 1423 __________ 1 3#1 __May ______ 3952 (= 8) _ MAR, APR, JUL hudsonvalley21 _________ 432 _ 503 _ 475 _____1410 __________ 0 1 1 __ Jul _______4124 (= 5) __ Consensus __________ 400 _ 554 _ 432 _____1386 __________ 0 1 0 _____________4070 (= 7) wxallannj ______________ 420 _ 564 _ 383 _____1367 __________1 1 0 __ Mar _______4104 (= 6) Tom __________________ 425 _ 516 _ 396 _____1337 __________ 1 0 0 _____________3911 (=10) RJay __________________397 _ 476 _ 462 _____1335 __________ 2 1 0 _____________3910 (=11) Roger Smith ____________356 _ 518 _ 448 _____1322 __________ 2 0 1 __ Jan _______4266 (= 1) __ MAY wxdude64 _____________ 432 _ 483 _ 407 _____1322 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 3962 (= 7) __Normal ______________412 _ 480 _ 418 _____1310 __________ 2 1 1 _____________ 3762 (=12) __ FEB dmillz25 _______________ 336 _ 527 _ 435 _____1298 __________ 0 1 0 __ Jun _______ 3736 (=12) jaxjagman _____________ 332 _ 468 _ 434 _____1234 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3930 (= 9) so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB Stebo _________________ 266 _ 479 _ 250 _____ 995 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 3539 (=13) Orangeburgwx (5/8)______251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb _______ 2090 (=15) mappy (5/8) ____________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=16) H2OTown__WX (3/8) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20) afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 1135 (=17) Mercurial __ (2/8) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/8) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/8) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)  __________________________________________________________________________________________________  Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - August _) REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL New York City _____ 1687 ____ 1566 ____ 1701 _____ 4954 Mid-Atlantic _______ 1704 ____ 1612 ____ 1545 _____ 4861 Central + Western __1774 ____ 1463 ____ 1368 _____ 4605 Philadelphia _______ 1641 ____ 1377 ____ 1574 _____ 4592 __ Consensus _____ 1364 ____ 1320 ____ 1386 _____ 4070 Tenn Valley _______ 1398 ____ 1346 ____ 1244 _____ 3988 __ Normal ________ 1300 _____1152 ____ 1310 _____ 3762 Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1221 ____ 1323 _____ 995 _____ 3539

I'm wondering how many Augusts have performed worse than this one at 2/0/0 which looks rather likely to be the final count. You might have to go back to those low count years around 1910. If 2/0/0 holds up, then these will be the scores (and they are generally not a pretty sight) out of 12 possible points. Updates also through June, July and August combined. 2 1 0 __ 11.0 __ hlcater (new total Jun-Jul-Aug 17.5) 3 1 1 ___ 9.0 __ snowlover 2 (JJA 17.5), UIWWildthing (JJA 15.5) 3 2 1 ___ 7.0 __ Yoda (JJA 16.0), crownweather (JJA 15.5), NCforecaster89 (JJA 15.5), ncskywarn (JJA 15.0), _ _ _ ___________ afewUniv b n (JJA 15.0), NHC mid-range (JJA 15.0), jburns (JJA 14.5), Stebo (JJA 12.5). 4 2 0 ___ 6.0 __ pcbjr (JJA 15.5), SRRTA22 (JJA 13.5) 3.7/2.2/1_5.2 __ Contest mean (JJA 13.1) 4 2 1 ___ 5.0 __ cobalt (JJA 14.0), blunder storm (JJA 14.0), contest normal (JJA 12.5), consensus, (JJA 12.5), _ _ _ ___________ NorthArlington101 (JJA12.0), jbamafanwx (JJA 12.0), jackstraw (JJA 11.5) 4 2 2 ___ 3.0 __ Rtd208 (JJA 10.5) 5 2 0 ___ 3.0 __ OSUmetstud (JJA 10.5) 3 3 2 ___ 2.0 __ jaxjagman (JJA 9.5) 4 3 1 ___ 2.0 __ RJay (JJA 9.5), mryanwilkes (JJA 6.5) 4 3 2 ___ 0.0 __ Roger Smith (JJA 7.0) 7 5 2 ___ 0.0 __ Orangeburgwx (JJA 7.5) These scores will be adjusted if any further tropical storm activity occurs in August, or confirmed around September 1st if not.

One plausible outcome is that the storm, always slowly weakening, never makes landfall (as defined by center crossing a coastline) anywhere populated, and drifts south of Kauai by Sunday to west of Kauai by Monday as a tropical storm. This is the GGEM solution and it makes some sense given the position and intensity of the northeast Pacific high. That would not rule out cat-1 wind gusts over some central and western portions of the state. I would still say though a 30-40 per cent chance of a hurricane landfall and that most likely to be in Oahu or possibly western Maui. But I think the rainfall will be the only major problem and it could be a rather complex pattern given the slow-moving nature of Lane, the rotating bands of moisture, and topography.

Final scoring for August 2018 FORECASTER __region___ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS wxallannj ______NYC_____ 78 _ 90 _ 54 __ 222__ 40 _ 84 _ 92__ 216 __438 __ 72 _ 70 _ 58 __ 200 _____ 638 DonSutherland.1 __NYC___ 62 _ 72 _ 32 __ 166__ 32_100_ 92__ 224 __ 390 __ 96_ 74 _ 58 __ 228 _____ 618 Roger Smith ____C+W____ 82 _ 82 _ 40 __ 204__ 72_ 76 _ 74__ 222 __ 426 __ 38 _ 68 _ 84 __ 190 _____ 616 so_whats_happening _PA__ 76 _ 80 _ 44 __ 200__ 58 _ 82 _ 86__226 __ 426 __ 56 _ 62 _ 68 __ 186 _____ 612 RJay ___________NYC____ 98_ 98_ 60__ 256__ 42 _ 66 _ 74__ 182 __ 438 __ 38 _ 68 _ 66 __ 172 _____ 610 Tom __________PHL______72 _ 74 _ 26 __ 172__ 48 _ 84 _ 88__ 220 __ 392 __ 68 _ 78 _ 64 __ 210 _____ 602 __ Consensus ___ _ _ ____ 76 _ 78 _ 40 __ 194__ 44 _ 82 _ 86__ 212 __ 406 __ 60 _ 78 _ 58 __ 196 _____ 602 RodneyS _______MA______62 _ 76 _ 58 __ 196__ 66 _ 68 _ 84__ 218 __ 414 __ 64 _ 74 _ 44 __ 182 _____ 596 dmillz25 ___ (-2%)_NYC___71*_90** 39*__200__ 12 _84** 94**_190 __ 390 __ 59*_76** 67*_ 202 _____ 592 hudsonvalley21 __NYC____ 74 _ 86 _ 36 __ 196__ 44 _ 74 _ 86__ 204 __ 400 __ 60 _ 82 _ 44 __ 186 _____ 586 Scotty Lightning ___PHL___ 62 _ 62 _ 10 __ 134__ 32 _ 86 _ 94__ 212 __ 346 __ 88 _ 88 _ 56 __232 _____ 578 Stebo ________GL/OV____ 92 _ 82 _ 30 __ 204__ 62 _ 76 _ 88__ 226 __ 430 __ 38 _ 88 _ 16 __ 142 _____ 572 BKViking _______NYC_____86 _ 82 _ 40 __ 208__ 38 _ 82 _ 86__ 206 __ 414 __ 32 _ 72 _ 50 __ 154 _____ 568 jaxjagman ______TNV____ 82 _ 76 _ 38 __ 196__ 44 _ 68 _ 82__ 194 __ 390 __ 40 _ 78 _ 54 __ 172 _____ 562 __ Normal ______________ 42 _ 42 _ 00 __ 084__ 22 _ 94_ 86__ 202 __ 286 __ 98_ 92 _ 46 __ 236 _____ 522 wxdude64 ___ (-1%) _MA__59*_ 51*_00 __110__ 20 _ 75*_87*__182 __ 292 __ 69*_ 91*_67*__227 _____ 519 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ * note: late penalties are small enough that they are shown in raw score line, * for each point deducted. High scores with color codes are also extreme forecast winners (the color tells which type of extreme prevailed). High scores in bold black type are not extreme forecast winners. Also subtotal maximum scores are shown in bold black. So far, DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, DEN and SEA appear likely to be extreme forecast wins (RJay 3 for east, Roger Smith 2 for ORD and SEA, all those being warmest forecasts, ... Don Sutherland 1 for coldest forecast at DEN, Normal also gets that one if the outcome is 0.0 or negative. Extreme forecast annual updated scoring table to be added later. Normal has high score for ATL so a forecaster with a lower score has high score indicated. There are quite a few ties for high score at IAH but at least some of those will drop out if the value changes. Regional Rumble scoring for August 2018 Region __________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL NYC _____________ 256 _____ 224 _____ 228 _______ 708 M A ______________196 _____ 218 _____ 227 _______ 641 PHL _____________ 172 _____ 220 _____ 232 _______ 624 C + W ___________ 204 _____ 222 _____ 190 _______ 616 PA / NY __________ 200 _____ 226 _____ 186 _______ 612 __ Consensus ______194 _____ 212 _____ 196 _______ 602 GL/OV ___________ 204 _____ 226 _____ 142 _______ 572 TNV _____________ 196 _____ 194 _____ 172 _______ 562 __ Normal _________ 84 _____ 202 _____ 236 _______ 522

Had some time today to update anomalies and projections: _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD_ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____ (11d) ____+3.2 _+4.1 _+7.2 __ +4.8 _+0.1 _--1.0 ___ --0.5 _+1.7 _+4.3 _____ (16d) ____+2.9 _+3.4 _+5.9 __ +4.9 _+0.4 _--0.6 ___ --0.4 _+0.4 _+4.0 _____ (23d) ____+2.4 _+2.1 _+4.4 __ +3.8 _+0.2 _+0.6 ___ --1.5 _+0.8 _+3.8 ____ (p23d) ____+2.0 _+2.3 _+4.0 __ +3.5 __0.0 __0.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+4.2 ____ (p31d) ____+3.0 _+3.0 _+4.5 __ +4.0 __0.0 _+1.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+3.0 ____ final anom _+2.9_+2.9_+5.3 __+3.9_+0.3_+0.7 __--0.1_+0.4_+2.7 and there have been no new seasonal max values anywhere this month, BOS tied their earlier max of 98 on Aug 29th. (17th) _ Anyone hoping to make a move on your leader will have to overcome the ongoing SEA factor this month, which may wash away the other deficiencies, we shall find out later. Will post provisional scoring around the 24th this month when we are closing in on reliable estimates. (24th) _ Have updated through 23 days as the forecasts for later in the month in east and also around IAH seem to have torched considerably, and the p31d values generated on 17th are probably a bit low there. The p23d average error was a very good 0.52 deg considering that DEN was rather off the mark by 2 deg. ... As the new projections were largely based on NWS forecasts (30th and 31st from GFS/ECM blend) I felt more confident about generating provisional scoring today, see next post for those scores. When I updated today I checked these provisionals and any error in them will likely just drop all scores slightly so would have no impact on the contest (depending on how hot it actually gets in the east, but sometimes a thunderstorm can make an impact in the downward direction during heat waves). Will be adding the annual updates fairly soon. We also have some seasonal scoring, many of the totals are very close and points could change so I'll leave that for the final scoring phase. (31st into 1st Sept) _ Confirmed anomalies are now posted. The values currently in the p31d line were posted on 25th.

Having a fabulous time in the western states, just a brief internet access at a coffee shop in Utah (could be the only one :)) ... So had time to look up the 11-day anomalies so far ... +3.2 _ +4.1 _ +7.2 __ +4.8 __ +0.1 __ --1.0 ___ --0.5 __ +1.7 __ +4.3 no new seasonal max, SEA tied theirs during the period, PHX got to 114. seems warmer than normal here in northeastern UT, 100 F last three days.

Table of forecasts for August 2018 FORECASTER __region___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RJay ___________NYC___+3.0 _ +3.0 _+3.0__ +1.0 _ +2.0_ +2.0___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 Stebo ________GL/OV___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___ +3.0 _ +1.0 _ --1.5 BKViking _______NYC____+2.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ +3.3 _ +1.8 _ +0.2 Roger Smith ____C+W___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.5_ +1.5 _ +2.0___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.5 jaxjagman ______TNV___ +2.0 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 __ +1.1 _ +1.9 _ +1.6 ___ +2.9 _ +1.5 _ +0.4 wxallannj ______NYC____ +1.8 _ +2.4 _ +2.7 __ +0.9 _ --0.5 _ +1.1 ___ +1.3 _ +1.9 _ +0.6 so_whats_happening _PA_ +1.7 _ +1.9 _ +2.2 __ +1.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ +2.1 _ +2.3 _ +1.1 __ Consensus ___ _ _ ____ +1.7 _ +1.8 _ +2.0 __ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ +1.9 _ +1.5 _ +0.6 hudsonvalley21 __NYC____+1.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.4 ___ +1.9 _ +1.3 _ --0.1 dmillz25 ___ (-2%)_NYC__ +1.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 __--0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +1.9 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 Tom __________PHL_____+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.3 __ +1.3 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.9 RodneyS _______MA_____ +1.0 _ +1.7 _ +2.9 __ +2.2 _ --1.3 _ --0.1___ +1.7 _--0.9 _ --0.1 DonSutherland.1 __NYC___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.6 __ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ +0.3 ___ +0.1_ +1.7 _ +0.6 Scotty Lightning ___PHL___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 wxdude64 ___ (-1%) _MA_ +0.9 _ +0.5__ 0.0 __ --0.1 _ --0.9 _ +0.1 ___ +1.4 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 __ Normal _________ _ ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _________________________________________________________________________ color codes show warmest, coldest forecasts. Normal is colder for DCA, NYC and DEN. ... I may be away from the internet from today to 21st, if anyone feels like posting anomalies, that would be great. ... note (21st) ... table edited, entering forecasts into excel file, noted dmillz25 +2.5 +2.0 NYC BOS

Have been on the road for ten days but I'm thinking July will be 2/2/0 ... let me know if that seems right. If so, the scoring (out of 6 possible points) using the half-strength deductions that apply to shoulder months (not ASO) will be (with June points added in brackets after each name) 2 2 0 ___ 6.0 ___ ncskywarn (8.0) 3 2 0 ___ 5.5 ___ SRRTA22 (7.5) 2 1 0 ___ 5.5 ___ pcbjr (9.5) ... blunder Storm, Cobalt, Yoda (all 9.0), NCforecaster89 (8.5), Consensus (7.5) 2.4 1 0.2 _ 5.2 __ Contest mean (7.9) 3 1 0 ___ 5.0 ___ snowlover2 (8.5) ... RJay, rtd208, jaxjagman (all 7.5) ... NorthArlington101 (7.0) ...Stebo (5.5) 1 1 0 ___ 5.0 ___ jburns (7.5), Roger Smith (7.0) 3 2 1 ___ 5.0 ___ crownweather (8.5), jbamafanwx (7.0) 3 1 1 ___ 4.5 ___ UIWwildthing, jackstraw and hlcater (all 6.5) ... mryanwilkes (4.5) 2 0 0 ___ 4.5 ___ Orangeburgwx (7.5) 1 0 0 ___ 4.0 ___ AfewUniv b n and NHC mid-range (both 8.0) ... OSUmetstud and Contest Normal (7.5) Leading total score so far is 9.5 out of a possible 10 for pcbjr, followed by 9.0 for blunder storm, cobalt and Yoda. NCforecaster89, crownweather and snowlover2 have 8.5 points. on to August which accounts for 12 points, and errors are now full strength deductions until Nov-Dec.

Predict the temperature anomaly (F deg) for these nine locations (relative to 1981-2010) : DCA__NYC__BOS___ORD__ATL__IAH___DEN__PHX__SEA My forecast is included, may be off-line until late August 1st (on time deadline is 06z 1st) ... +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0_ +3.5

June's actual count was 0 0 0. Scoring will be max of 4.0 points for pcbjr and afewUniversesbelownormal, also NHC mid-range. 3.5 points awarded to 1 0 0 (Blunder Storm, snowlover2, crownweather, cobalt, Yoda, OSUmetstud, and Contest Normal). 3.0 points awarded to 1 1 0 (NCforecaster89, Orangeburgwx) 2.7 points for 1.6 0.5 0.0 (Contest mean) 2.5 points go to 2 0 0 forecasts (RJay, rtd208, jaxjagman, jburns) 2.0 points for 2 1 0 forecasts (SRRTA22, Roger Smith, jackstraw, jbamafanwx, UIWWildthing, NorthArlington101, hlcater, NCskywarn, also Consensus) 0.5 points for 3 1 0 forecast (Stebo) 0.0 points for 3 2 0 forecast (mryanwilkes)

Our consensus from 24 forecasts (not including the NHC mid-range but closer to top of their range) is for a fairly average season by recent standards. The contest normal is derived from data since 1989 and is boosted by one due to the out-of-season May storm. But in general terms, the consensus looks for a somewhat more active early season (July in particular has higher numbers than average) and a somewhat flat end of the season (October shows this tendency).

2018 North Atlantic tropical season contest -- Table of entries Entries include the 100 count for May and are adjusted when monthly totals appear to add up to seasonal forecasts (in other words, the 100 is added on). Where May is included the total is left as posted. When there is only a seasonal forecast and no monthlies, the contest normal values are used scaled to the forecast (* appears beside forecaster name). These forecasters can supply monthly values before future months begin if they wish, and subject to the following: Contest rules state that your monthlies do not have to add up to your seasonal. But if anyone thinks this is an error and wants to adjust, you have until end of June 7th to adjust (PM sent to one entrant on this issue). All forecasters have the option to adjust future months before they begin if they wish (post new numbers). Note -- have added BlunderStorm's entry which I overlooked (made the table from page one thinking all the entries were there, oops) -- tied seasonals are listed in order received. FORECASTER _____________ SEASONAL __ May __ June __ July _ August _ Sept __ Oct _ Nov-Dec ___ Points available ___________ 50 _______ -- ____ 4 ____ 6 ____ 12 ___ 16 ___ 10 ____ 2 ____ 100 SRRTA22 __________________ 22 _9 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 0 _ 4 2 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 _ 3 2 1 Roger Smith ________________21 15 7 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 4 3 2 __ 7 5 3 __ 5 4 2 _ 1 1 0 Jackstraw __________________20 10 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 2 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 2 2 0 _ 0 0 0 Orangeburgwx ______________ 19 9 4 ____100 __ 1 1 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 7 5 2 __ 4 2 1 __ 3 1 1 _ 1 0 0 RJay ______________________ 19 9 3 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 0 _ 1 0 0 jbamafanwx ________________18 10 5 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 Rtd208 ____________________ 18 8 5 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 2 __ 6 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 0 0 0 Stebo _____________________ 18 8 4 ____100 __ 3 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 jaxjagman __________________17 9 4 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 3 2 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 0 _ 0 0 0 mryanwilkes ________________ 17 9 4 ____100 __ 3 2 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 BlunderStorm _______________ 17 9 4 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 3 2 1 _ 1 0 0 UIWWildthing _______________17 9 3 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 3 1 1 __ 6 5 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 NorthArlington101 ___________ 17 8 4 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ Consensus ______________17 8 3 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 hlcater ____________________ 17 7 2 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 2 1 _ 1 0 0 ___ Contest Normal __________16 8 3 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 snowlover2 _________________16 5 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 1 1 __ 6 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 ncskywarn _________________15 11 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 2 2 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 2 1 _ 1 1 0 jburns _____________________15 8 4 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 NCforecaster89 _____________ 15 7 3 ____100 __ 1 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 (Jul 210 rev) crownweather ______________ 14 7 3 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0 cobalt _____________________14 6 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 1 0 0 a few Universes below normal*_13 7 3 ____100 __ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0 ___ NHC mid-range _________ 13 7 2.5 __ 100 __ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 0.5_0 0 0 Yoda ______________________13 6 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 2 1 __ 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0 OSUmetstud _______________ 13 5 1 ____ 100 __ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 5 2 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0 pcbjr _____________________ 11 5 1 ____ 100 __ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0 _______________________________________________________________________ Contest means ___16.5_8.2_3.4__100__1.6_0.5_0__2.4_1.0_0.2__3.7_2.2_1.0__4.8_3.0_1.5__2.3_1.4_0.6__0.5_0.2_0.0 (Consensus is the contest mean rounded off to nearest whole number -- these rounded off monthly numbers add up to 17 8 4)

We are closing in on the contest deadline, there's nothing too imminent so I will allow entries and edits to end of day June 5th then post the table of entries -- let's say 03z June 6th will be when I harvest the entries so if you're going to edit or enter, do it before that time.

Thanks for entering the contest ... further entries will be accepted at least to June 4th then we will make up a table of entries. We use a "contest normal" which is basically derived from the average of 1989 to 2017, the active season last year has bumped up the values slightly from last year's contest. Also we add in the out-of-season May 1,0,0 to that contest normal as we have done the past two years for January to May activity. This makes the contest normal _________________________ SEASON __ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG_ SEP _ OCT_ N-D Adjusted Normal 1989-2017____ 16_8_3 __ 100 _ 100__100__421__641__321__000 (note that N-D has an actual average of something like 0.4/0.1/0.01 so it rounds down to 000) :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: We also take the NHC "mid-range" from their published seasonal forecast. It is assumed that the May activity is part of their forecast. The mid-range of their 2018 forecast is 13 7 2.5, which is almost identical to the Weather Channel at 13 7 2. (source: Wikipedia article) To make their entry complete, I have scaled their forecast to the contest normal as follows: NHC mid-range ___________ 13 7 2.5 __ 100 _ 000 _ 100 _ 321 _ 531 _ 3 2 0.5 _ 000 If you have entered only a seasonal prediction, I will scale a set of monthlies for you and you can always adjust them going forward. If you have entered monthlies and they do not include a 100 count for May but add up to your seasonal total, I will add the May 100 to your seasonal forecast. If you have that in your mix then I won't adjust your total. A reminder -- you can adjust monthly forecasts up to the start of each month if you spot new trends. Your seasonal is carved in stone once we set the table of entries though.

Entrainment of several cells will bring a risk of dangerous flash flooding around Baltimore next 3 hours. Potential for 8" rainfalls. (IMHO)

What kind of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season do you foresee? Our annual contest asks you to predict the total number of storms, and break it down by months. As you know, the "count" is total number of named storms, then total number of those that become hurricanes, and finally total number of hurricanes that become major (cat-3 or stronger). Last year the final count was 17/10/6 and our contest winner was Rockchalk83. The rules are fairly simple. You need to post a seasonal total by the deadline which I am setting as June 4th as we often seem to be getting entries past the season's June 1st starting point. I will try to expand the field by publicizing the contest in regional forums this year. Your seasonal total should include any developments in May, but if there is an outcome (GFS keeps showing a late May hurricane in the eastern Gulf) earlier forecasts that are backed up by monthly predictions will be adjusted if it appears that the May storm is not anticipated. Seasonals that have no complete monthly component will be left unadjusted as it could be assumed that the May storm is included. Last year, all entrants gave monthly predictions and almost all left them unedited, but the contest rules allow you to submit these up to 06z of the first of each month, or to revise them by that deadline. Note, there is no requirement for your monthly numbers to add up to your seasonal numbers and you can use decimal points to express uncertainty. Since most of the seasonal forecasts were the sum of the monthly predictions, I assumed that any May activity could be factored in. Some past years, we have had to deal with even earlier storms that happened before the contest announcement (January, April). I am going to post my forecast mostly as a guide to how your forecast should appear (not the numbers but the format) ... Roger Smith ____ 21 16 7 ____ (Jun) 2 1 0 _ (Jul) 1 1 0 __ (Aug) 4 3 2 __ (Sep) 7 5 3 __ (Oct) 5 4 2 __ (Nov-Dec) 1 1 0 (this assumes a 1 1 0 May, would be adjusted to 20 15 7 if 0 0 0 or 21 15 7 if 1 0 0) Scoring for the contest is as follows: 50% of the score is based on the seasonal. You start with 50 points and in each category, you lose half of (1 point per error plus that number squared). Example, you predict 16 storms, the actual is 19, your error is (3 + 3 squared)/2 = 12/2 = 6. If you had similar errors for hurricanes and majors, your total score would then be 32/50. The other 50% of the score is based on your monthly forecasts starting with June and ending with Nov-Dec. These are worth 4, 6, 12, 16, 10 and 2 points in order from June to Nov-Dec. Then the errors reduce your possible score in the same way as the seasonal formula, except that June, July and Nov-Dec go with half the reductions (in other words, you lose points at half the rate of the other more active months). In the past few years, highest scores in the contest have been close to 90 and seasonal scores of 48 to 50 have been achieved. A good monthly set will earn 41-43 points. Good luck if you enter. The deadline will be made more precise around June 1st and all entrants can edit up to the eventual deadline without notice, you can assume that I won't be copying down or storing any forecasts until a firm deadline is posted in the thread and up to that firm deadline, so no need to post new numbers, just edit the old ones. Once a table of entries appears, your numbers are set for the seasonal and June portions but you have the option of posting revised monthly numbers at any point during the contest before monthly deadlines. Late monthly revisions will be penalized at a rate of 10% per day but will not be valid after any named storm is declared in the month. As you see, I am expecting a very active season. There seems to be no particular reason why the outcome from 2017 would change very much this year, hopefully the majors will stay out to sea more often and avoid the sorts of landfalls that caused so much devastation in 2017.

It would appear that all but four of our predicted first high risks are now in the rear view mirror and out of the running with three left standing in May and one in Nov (well the latest of the passed dates is April 9 so that one remains in contention until about the 20th when May 1st takes over). So if today's risk happens to go high, April 9th takes it. No huge contenders on the current model output. These were the forecasts I noted as being April 7 or later: rolltide_130 (Apr 7) freshgeek (Apr 9) cstrunk (May 1) bjc0303 (May 2) GSwizzle83 (May 4) NRGJeff (Nov 18) Would now say around May 10th perhaps. Recent maps remind me of spring 1947 (the Woodward OK tornado which was in early May IIRC). Pretty good call by freshgeek (Apr 9) who also said MS-AL, now under tor watch (enhanced).

You people throw some mighty fine snow parties. I had two weeks like you're having now, back around end of December and into New Years. That snow is still in my back yard today despite the past five days being sunny and around 40-45 F.

Seems like a movie in the making ... SNOW WARS Long long ago in a snowstorm far away different measurement techniques came into conflict "Luke, where is your snowboard?"