Roger Smith

June had no activity so the scoring (out of four possible points) looks like this: 4 pts (0,0,0 forecasts) __ Julian Colton, Stormlover74, Cyclonic Fury 3.5 pts (1,0,0 forecasts) _ all others except below 3.0 pts (1,1,0 forecast) __ Roger Smith 2.5 pts (2,1,0 forecast) __ ineedsnow ================================= July may get some action apparently.

First report on anomalies and forecasts ... ________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _ 8d _____ (anom) _______ +2.8 _+3.7 _+6.1 __ +4.5 _+3.9 __0.0 ___ --0.3 _+0.4 __0.0 _ 8d _____ (p14d) ________+0.4 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____ 0.0 _+0.5 _ +0.2 _ 8d _____ (p24d) ________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.4

Table of forecasts July 2019 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxallannj __________________+2.2 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +0.4 _+1.6 _+1.7 ___ --1.1_+1.2 _+2.2 Roger Smith ________________+2.2 _+1.8 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ --0.5 _+1.1 _+0.4 smerby ____________________+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.8 __ --0.8 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ --1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 BKViking ___________________+1.9 _+1.9 _+1.5 __ +0.5 _+1.1 _+0.9 ___ --0.2 _+1.2 _+2.4 Jakkelwx __________________ +1.9 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +0.6 _+1.1 _+2.1 ___ +0.5 _+1.4 _+1.2 hudsonvalley21 _____________ +1.7 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +0.7 _+1.4 _+0.3 ___ --0.2 _+0.9 _+1.0 ___ Consensus _____________ +1.7 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +0.4 _+1.1 _+0.5 ___ --0.4 _+1.0 _+1.6 RodneyS ___________________+1.7 _+1.2 _+1.0 __ +0.2 _+1.1 _+0.3 ___ --0.6 _+0.4 _+1.8 wxdude64 _________________ +1.6 _+1.3 _+1.1 __ --0.2 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___ --0.7 _+0.7 _+1.7 DonSutherland1 _____________+1.2 _+1.2 _+0.6 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.3 ___ --0.4 _+0.3 _+1.5 Tom _______ (-5%) _________+1.2 _+0.9 _+1.1 __ --0.2 _+1.5 _+1.1 ___ +0.5 _+1.1 _+1.6 Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ Normal __________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ================================================================ Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded, but Normal is lowest for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL (tied IAH), PHX and SEA. Welcome smerby and Jakkelwx. (consensus is median value, 6th ranked of eleven forecasts).

+2.2 __ +1.8 __ +2.0 ___ +1.5 __ +1.0 ___ 0.0 ____ --0.5 __ +1.1 __ +0.4

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-June 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL RodneyS ________________ 377 _492 _478__1347 __402 _402 _506__1310__2657__437 _402 _352 __1191___3848 DonSutherland.1 __________367 _518 _414 __1299 __352 _364 _500 __1216 __ 2515 __ 389 _450_354__1193___3708 ___ Consensus ___________ 419_526_456 __1401__378 _358 _468 __1204 __ 2605 __ 349 _382 _306 __1037 ___3642 wxdude64 _______________395 _495 _433 __1323 __443_318 _453 __1214 __ 2537 __ 380 _375 _301 __1056____3593 wxallannj ________________402 _436 _458 __1296 __316 _396 _476 __1188 __2484 __ 318 _380 _300 __ 998 ____3482 hudsonvalley21 ___________357 _530 _464__1351 __334 _384 _466 __1184 __2535 __ 251 _390 _294 __ 935 ____3470 Roger Smith _____________ 412 _456 _408 __1276 __314 _302 _422 __1038 __2314 __ 427 _322 _318 __1067 ____3381 BKViking ________________ 415 _512 _446 __1373__348_314 _427 __1089 __2462 __ 278 _328 _287 __ 893 ____3355 Scotty Lightning ___________371 _476 _468 __1315 __336 _360 _452 __1148 __2463 __ 210 _322 _260 __ 792 ____3255 Tom ____________________327 _470 _382 __1179 __ 410 _246 _468 __1124 __2303 __257 _368 _284 __ 909 ____3212 ___ Normal ______________ 288 _508 _430 __1226 __374 _258 _470 __1102 __2328 __ 229 _417 _237__ 883 ____3207 Stebo (4/6) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 __ 569 ____2225 RJay (4/6) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 __ 730 ____2083 tplbge (1/6) ______________ 90 __ 94 _ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___ 72 _ 88 __32 __ 192 _____684 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category _ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine). _ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___2 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN Roger Smith ____________ 3 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0 BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________1 ___0 ___2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts STANDINGS to date in 2019 RodneyS ____________ 9-4 Roger Smith _________ 9-3 DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0 Scotty Lightning ______ 3-0 Normal __________ 3-1 Stebo ______________ 3-1 wxallannj ____________3-2 wxdude64 ___________ 3-0 hudsonvalley21 _______2-0 RJay ________________1-0 Tom ________________1-1 tplbge ______________ 1-0 ______________________________________________________________________________

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA deadline is 06z Monday July 1st.

Final scoring for July 2019 Scoring is based on final anomalies shown in the previous post. High scores in bold type. Warmest forecasts in red, coldest in blue. Late penalties (BKV) are ** for 2 point and * for 1 point deductions. FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL (all nine) wxdude64 _______________74 _ 92 _ 82 __ 248 __ 98 _ 80 _ 88 __ 266 __514 __ 96_ 94 _ 88__ 278_____ 792 ____ Consensus __________ 94 _ 94 _ 96 __ 284 __ 64 _ 84 _ 86 __ 234 __ 518 __ 70 _ 92 _ 58 __ 220 _____738 RodneyS ________________92 _ 94 _ 98 __ 284 __ 80 _ 72 _ 84__ 236 __ 520 __ 82 _ 68 _ 64 __ 214 _____ 734 ____ Normal _____________ 76 _ 96 _ 90 __ 262 __ 76 _ 92 _ 94 __ 262 __524 __ 64 _ 94 _ 46 __ 204 _____ 728 DonSutherland1 __________ 86 _ 94 _ 94 __ 274 __ 66 _ 88 _ 94 __ 248 __ 522 __ 70 _ 92 _ 42 __ 204 _____726 wxallannj _______________ 86 _ 70 _ 86 __ 242 __ 64 _ 62 _100__ 226 __ 468 __ 92 _ 86 _ 74 __ 252 _____ 720 Scotty Lightning __________ 96_ 84 _100__ 280 __ 66 _ 88 _ 86 __ 240 __ 520 __ 64 _ 86 _ 46 __ 196 _____ 716 hudsonvalley21 ___________80 _ 98 _ 88 __ 266 __ 60 _ 92 _ 98__ 250 __ 516 __ 60 _ 90 _ 50 __ 200 _____ 716 BKViking ___ (-2%) _______ 88**82**88**_ 258 __ 63*_86**84**__233 __491 __ 47*_88**76**_ 211 _____ 702 Roger Smith _____________ 94 _ 96 _ 60 __ 250 __ 92 _ 58 _ 66 __ 216 __ 466 __ 96 _ 76 _ 60 __ 232 _____ 698 tplbge __________________ 90 _ 94 _ 78 __ 262 __ 46 _ 80 _100__ 226 __ 488 __ 72 _ 88 _ 32 __ 192 _____ 680 Tom ___________________ 94 _ 78 _ 90 __ 262 __ 40 _ 70 _ 86 __ 196 __ 458 __ 48 _ 96 _ 56 __ 200 _____ 658 _________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts for June 2019 Five locations qualify ... ORD (-1.2) _ wxdude (--1.3) has high score with second coldest forecast, takes a win, RodneyS (-2.2) would take a loss (changes to a win if -1.8 or colder). ATL (+0.4) _ hudsonvalley (+0.8) has high score and wins for ATL at any outcome colder than +0.9 ... Normal has a loss here (shares win if outcome +0.4 or lower). IAH (+0.3) _ wxallannj and tplbge share a win. DEN (-1.8) _ Wxdude64 (-1.6) and Roger Smith (-2.0) share a win with high scores, wxallannj takes a loss (-2.2) with coldest forecast. SEA (+2.7) _ wxdude64 (+2.1) has high score and wins for SEA. ___________________________________________________________________

Anomaly tracker updates and forecasts ... _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 8th ______ (7d) ________ +2.1 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +0.1 _+2.6 _+2.1 ___+1.7 _--0.2 _+1.6 15th ______ (14d) _______--0.5 _--0.7 _+0.6 __ --0.9 _--0.1 _+1.2 ___--0.7 _+1.3 _+4.6 22nd ______ (21d) _______+0.6 _--1.0 _+0.3 __ --3.2 _+0.3 _+1.2 ___--2.0 _+0.8 _+3.6 29th _______(28d) ______ +0.9 __ 0.0 _+0.4 __ --1.7 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___--2.4 _--0.1 _+2.6 8th ______(p14d) _______+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.7 __ --0.2 _+0.3 _+2.5 ___--0.6 _+2.0 _+2.0 15th ______(p21d) ________0.0 __0.0 _+1.0 __ --1.3 _--0.4 _+1.5 ___--0.8 _+0.9 _+3.0 22nd ______(p28d) ______ +1.2 _--0.5 _+0.7 __ --1.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___--1.3 _+0.5 _+2.2 8th ______(p24d) _______+0.2 __0.0 _--0.5 __ --0.8 _--1.0 _+2.0 ___+0.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 15th ______(p30d) _______+0.5 __0.0 _+0.5 __ --0.6 _--0.5 _+0.5 ___--1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 22nd ______(p30d) ______ +1.0 _--0.5 _+0.5 __ --1.4 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___--1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 29th ______(p30d) ______ +1.0 _--0.5 _+0.5 __ --1.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___--1.5 _+0.5 _+2.5 1st July __ final anoms ___ +1.2 _+0.2 _+0.5__ --1.2 _+0.4 _+0.3 ___--1.8 _+0.3 _+2.7 __________________________________________________________ 8th _ the story this coming week is a gradual build up of heat in the west, PHX has excessive heat warnings posted for mid-week. Rather cool for mid-June in the east and north central states. These trends seem likely to continue for most of the outlook period but anomalies in the east will remain fairly close to normal. 15th _ The past week NWS forecasts appear to have been quite accurate with an average error of about 0.9 deg. ... as expected the west had a heat wave, PHX has already hit 112 and SEA 95 towards the seasonal max contest. I don't think there are any other contenders yet. This coming week looks relatively bland almost everywhere while staying rather hot in the Pac NW. The portion of the month derived from the GFS 8 to 16 day charts also looked quite close to average for late June with faint signs of a heat wave towards the very end of the guidance in the east, but probably a bit below average for most of the period. 22nd _ The past week had reasonably good forecasts, the average error was 0.8 deg (compare blue text lines). The coming week will be generally a bit warmer than normal except in the Pacific northwest, and trends for 29th-30th appear similar. 29th _ The past week was well predicted, the average error was about 0.5 deg. The provisionals have been retained for the first five locations and changed slightly for the last four. Scoring will be adjusted and annual totals added soon. _______________________________ Note: The 2018-19 snowfall contest is probably done with no snow chances in the DEN forecast or on any maps out to 384h, so you can find the latest updated table in the March thread; RodneyS is the winner.

After one week ... _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 8th _______ (7d) ________ +2.1 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +0.1 _+2.6 _+2.1 ___+1.7 _--0.2 _+1.6 8th _______(p14d) _______+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.7 __ --0.2 _+0.3 _+2.5 ___--0.6 _+2.0 _+2.0 8th _______(p24d) _______+0.2 __0.0 _--0.5 __ --0.8 _--1.0 _+2.0 ___+0.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 __________________________________________________________ 8th _ the story this coming week is a gradual build up of heat in the west, PHX has excessive heat warnings posted for mid-week. Rather cool for mid-June in the east and north central states. These trends seem likely to continue for most of the outlook period but anomalies in the east will remain fairly close to normal. Note: The 2018-19 snowfall contest is probably done with no snow chances in the DEN forecast or on any maps out to 384h, so you can find the latest updated table in the March thread; RodneyS is the winner.

Table of entries for 2019 Atlantic Tropical-Season Forecast Contest This year, will be keeping all the non-contest-entrant data in a separate zone at the top of the table. For entrants, the forecasts are listed in descending order of total storms with total hurricanes the second point of breaking ties, and majors the third point. FORECASTER ___________ SEASONAL __ MAY ___ JUN___ JUL ___ AUG ___ SEP ___ OCT ___ NOV-DEC Contest Normal ___________16 8 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 Contest consensus ________ 15 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 NHC (high end) ___________15 8 4 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0 NHC (midrange) __________ 12 6 3 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 0 0 0 CSU (June fcst) ___________13 6 2 _____1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 0 0 0 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Roger Smith _____________18 12_4 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 1 __ 1 0 0 ineedsnow _______________17 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 1 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 4 1 0 __ 0 0 0 RJay ____________________16 9 4 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 snowlover2 ______________ 16 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 0 0 0 NorthArlington101 _________16 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 Julian Colton _____________ 15 9 4 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 4 2 2 __ 2 1 0 NCforecaster89 ___________ 15 7 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0 hlcater __________________15 7 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0 Stormlover74 ____________ 15 5 1 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 2 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 0 0 __ 1 0 0 AfewUniv b n _____________14 9 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 3 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 2 0 __ 1 0 0 Stebo ___________________14 6 3 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 CyclonicFury _____________ 14 6 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 1 0 0 yoda ____________________13 7 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 3 1 0 __ 0 0 0 yotaman ________________ 13 5 2 _____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Apart from my somewhat higher forecast, the rest of our 14 entrants have chosen values fairly close to the long-term average with a bit of a spread, and so the contest is likely to be closely fought (unless we get a very active season). Our consensus is very close to the top of the NHC range.

Okay so that's 13 more named storms, a total of 14 counting the one already recorded in May ... care to mention how many will be hurricanes and of those, major hurricanes? I will enter your numbers scaled to the contest normal in the absence of any further numbers. Thanks. And in general, we have reached the deadline now, so a table of entries will be posted soon.

Table of forecasts for June, 2019 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA wxallannj _______________+1.9 _+1.7 _+1.2 __+0.6 _+2.3 _+0.3 ___--2.2 _+1.0 _+1.4 RodneyS ________________+1.6 _--0.1 _+0.4 __--2.2 _+1.8 _+1.1 ___--0.9 _--1.3 _+0.9 Tom ____________________+1.5 _+1.3 _+1.0 __+1.8 _+1.9 _+1.0 ___+0.8 _+0.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith ______________+1.5 __0.0 _--1.5 __--0.8 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___--2.0 _+1.5 _+0.7 Scotty Lightning ___________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____0.0 _+1.0 __0.0 ____ Consensus __________ +0.9 _+0.5 _+0.3 __+0.6 _+1.2 _+1.0 ___--0.3 _+0.7 _+0.6 BKViking ___ (-2%) ________+0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+0.6 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+0.8 _+0.8 _+1.6 tplbge __________________ +0.7 _+0.5 _--0.6 __+1.6 _+1.4 _+0.3 ___--0.4 _--0.3 _--0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+0.6 ___--0.3 _+0.7 _--0.2 hudsonvalley21 ___________+0.2 _+0.3 _--0.1 __+0.8 _+0.8 _+0.4 ___+0.2 _--0.2 _+0.2 ____ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxdude64 _______________ --0.1 _--0.2 _--0.4 __--1.3 _+1.4 _+0.9 ___--1.6 _+0.6 _+2.1 _________________________________________________________________ warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded ... normal is below all forecasts for ATL and IAH. With ten forecasts, the consensus is the mean of fifth and sixth ranked (rounded upwards).

Reasonably good turnout for a first time contest, I for one would not mind seeing an extension through the weekend with a final push for more entries. There's no real "tells" on tonight's GFS that's for sure. But then again, June 1936 was not a very hot month. Little known fact, there were actually some record lows a few days before the big east coast July 1936 heat wave. I think you'll find some for BWI daily max earlier in the month.

April 8, 2024 ... long totality from west TX northeast to upstate NY and Quebec. Bound to be some cloud along that line but should be within reach of most people on the forum with a bit of planning (my target would be west TX, unless a week in advance it looks like a big high over Quebec then I can go there instead).

It's all good, you are not late (deadline 06z) ... My pathetic attempt follows ... +1.5 _ 0.0 _ -1.5 __ --0.8 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 ___ --2.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.7 Good luck and welcome to tplbge.

The deadline for entries will be extended through the weekend of June 1-2 to encourage a larger field. Those who have already entered may edit current forecasts during this time. Absolute deadline June 3rd 0600z, or earlier if the current slowly developing system depicted on NHS guidance map near Belize gets a more definite forecast for named storm activity. Thanks for entering.

I see there's a new invest candidate in the western Caribbean. The seasonal forecast contest will remain open past deadline tonight through the weekend or until that storm gets a more definite forecast posted. See two posts back for the link to the contest.

I wonder if another older analogue might be 1911? There was a very warm May in the east followed by one of the worst heat waves on record in early July. It was a low solar year back in the last weak solar long-term period before the current one (1905-07 peak considered weak, 1917 peak moderate strong).

Would expect best chances of tornadic cells about 30-50 miles south of ORD as remnants of occluded front interact with Lake Michigan and extensive east winds over northern IN southern MI to set up barrier to northward advection of tropical air mass, max risk somewhere around Galesburg to Streator to Kankakee.

As always, predict the anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 06z June 1st).

Four Seasons scoring update (Spring March, April, May) Rankings from winter with spring added in second line for each forecaster east, central not counted in total as c/e is counted. ... Consensus and Normal ranks do not affect forecaster ranks. * indicates tied rankings (note format is based on low score total ranking) (numbers indicate ranks, 1 = first or highest total, etc) __ a perfect score would be 12 in this format. FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__all nine__TOTAL RodneyS _________winter___8 __ 8 __ 3 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 3*__ 4 __ ( 4) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ______ 67 ________________ spring __ 4* __1 __ 3 __ ( 4) ___ 1 __2 __ 1*__( 1) __ 1 ___ 1 __ 2 __1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______19 __ (86) DonSutherland.1 __ winter __ 4 __ 5 __10 __ ( 6) ___5 __ 2 __ 3 __ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 7 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 46 ________________ spring __ 7 __ 2 __ 4 __ ( 7) ___ 6 __ 8 __ 1*__( 2) __ 4*___3 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 43 __ (89) wxallannj ________ winter __ 3 __ 4 __ 1 __ ( 2) ___10 __1 __ 1 __ ( 1) __1 ___ 3 __ 8 __ 7 ___ 7 ____ 1 ______47 ________________ spring __ 3 __ 9 __ 5 __ ( 6) ___ 2 __ 3 __ 7 __ ( 3) __ 6 ___ 7 __ 3 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 4 ______ 59 __ (106) ___ Consensus ____winter__ 5 __ 6 __ 6 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __ 7 __ 6*__( 6) __ 6 ___6*__ 6 __ 5 ___5 ___ 7 ______ 71 ________________ spring __ 1 __ 2 __ 4*__ ( 1) ___ 2 __ 4 __ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 ___ 4 __ 5 __ 4 ___ 4 ____ 3 ______ 40 __ (111) hudsonvalley21 ____winter __5 __ 2 __ 7 __ ( 4) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 4 ___ 4* __4 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 54 ________________ spring __ 6 __ 3 __ 1 __ ( 1) ___ 7 __ 1 __ 5 __ ( 4) __ 2 ___11 __ 6 __ 8 ___ 8 ____ 6 ______64 __ (118) Roger Smith ______winter __1 __ 11 __ 4 __( 5) ___11 _ 6 __ 2 __ ( 7) __ 7 ___ 2 __11__ 1 ___ 2 ____ 6 ______ 64 ________________ spring __ 9 __ 5*__ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 _10 __ 9 __ ( 9) __ 9 ___ 2 __ 5 __ 9 ___ 3 ____ 7 ______ 81 __ (145) Scotty Lightning ___winter___2 __ 1 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 3*__ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 __11 __10 __10 __11 ____ 4 ______ 64 ________________ spring __ 8 __ 8 __ 2 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 4 __ 4 __ ( 7) __ 8 __ 10 __ 9 __ 6 ___ 9 ____ 9 ______ 85 __ (149) wxdude64 ________winter __ 9 __ 5 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 __ 8 __ 7 ___ ( 6) __ 9 ___ 9 __ 7 __ 9 __10 ____10_____100 ________________ spring __ 2 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 7 __ 6 ___ ( 6) __ 4* ___ 4 __ 4 __ 2 __ 4 ____ 3 ______ 52 __ (152) Tom ____________ winter __11 __ 6 __11 __(11) ___ 1 __11 __ 9 __ ( 9) __11 ___10 __ 3 __ 4 ___ 8 _____11______96 ________________ spring __ 4*__ 5*__ 7 __ ( 5) ___ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ___( 4) __ 3 ____ 6 __ 7 __ 8 ___ 6 _____ 5 _____ 65 __ (161) BKViking _________winter __ 7 __ 3 __ 5 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __10 __ 8 __ (11) __ 6 ___4*__ 9 __11___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 85 ________________ spring __ 1 __ 4 __ 8 __ ( 2) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 8 __ ( 8) __ 7 ___ 8 __ 8 __ 5 ___ 7 ____ 7 ______ 76 __ (161) ___ Normal _______winter___9 __ 3 __ 8 __ ( 7) ___ 3 __ 7*__ 9*__ ( 6) __ 6 ___10 __ 3 __12 ___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 86 ________________ spring __11 __ 8 __ 4 __ ( 9) ___ 4*__11 __ 3 __ (9) __ 9 ____11 __ 3 __ 9 ___ 8 ____ 10 _____ 91 __ (177) Stebo ____________winter__ 6 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 7) ___ 2 __ 9 __10 __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 8 __ 5 ___ 6 ___ 6 ____ 8 _____ 81 ________________ spring __10 __10__10 __ (10) ___11 __9 __11 __(11) __10 ___ 9 __11 __11 __11 ____10 _____123 __ (204) RJay ____________winter___10 __10 __ 8 __(10) ___ 7 __ 7 __11 __ (10)__10 ___ 1 __ 1 ___ 8 ___4 ____ 9 _____ 86 ________________ spring __11 __ 11__11 __ (11) __10 __11__10 __(10) __11 ___ 5 __10 __10 ___10 ___ 11 ____121 __ (207)

I came to very similar conclusions from a different research perspective (summary posted in whatever we call the main forum, I call it the Quiet Zone). Would not be surprised if there is some exceptional heat at some point in July or August as you seem to be implying. Good luck with your forecast, if you're right, I'm right.

FWIW I foresee a season that has an active coastal track similar to the peak years of the mid 1950s, as I think we will see a summer pattern similar to years like 1953 to 1955. And here's a contest you can enter in the main forum (a.k.a. the Quiet Room) ... Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/

Posting a notice in all regional forums -- 2019 hurricane (all named tropical storms) seasonal forecast contest open in tropical headquarters forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52312-2019-hurricane-all-named-tropical-storms-forecast-contest/