Roger Smith

Just 0.1" of snow reported from NYC up to midnight so the contest period didn't miss out on much with that start.

It should accelerate now which may eventually weaken it, but it's being pulled quickly into the circulation off the coast and will be advancing more like 50-75 mph from now on. It's going to be through DC and Baltimore before 0230 at the rate it is going, and beyond all southeast parts of this forum before 0330 except far southeast VA, may have lost a lot of its identity by then with just remnant flurries.

Contest closed to new entries ... table of entries repeated here ... Contest entries to 06z Saturday February 6th listed in order of coldest max to warmest max, then coldest min to warmest min within each group FORECASTER (order of entry) ___________ MAX _ MIN ___ snow Roger Smith (19) __________________________16 ___ 4 _____ 0.6" RJay (18) _________________________________ 16 ___ 4 _____ 0.2" Northshorewx ( 7 ) _______________________ 16 ___ 6 _____ 0.4" Tony (via RJay post) (15) _________________ 17 ___ 2 _____ 0.6" CPcantmeasuresnow (12) ________________ 17 ___ 3 _____ 1.4" bkviking (14) _____________________________ 17 ___ 4 _____ 0.7" DonSutherland1 ( 1 ) ______________________ 17 ___ 6 _____ 0.2" TriPol ( 9 ) ________________________________ 18 ___-1 _____ 1.3" IYC77 ( 6 ) ________________________________ 18 ___ 7 _____ 0.8" dmillz25 (10) ______________________________19 ___ 5 _____ 0.7" ___ Consensus (mean of entries) ________ 19 ___ 6 _____ 0.5" Stormlover74 (11) _________________________ 19 ___ 7 _____ 0.4" coastalplainsnowman ( 2 ) ________________19 ___ 9 _____ 0.75" SACRUS ( 3 ) _____________________________20 ___ 5 _____ 0.4" [email protected] ( 4 ) ___________ 20 ___ 9 _____ -- -- snowman19 (17) __________________________ 21 ___ 2 _____ 0.5" wxallannj ( 8 ) ____________________________ 21 ___ 8 _____ 0.2" Prue11 ( 5 ) _______________________________ 21 ___ 9 _____ Tr Rwes1 (13) _______________________________ 22 ___ 8 _____ 0.1" PositiveEPOEnjoyer (16) __________________24 ___ 8 _____ 0.5" ___________________________- Contest rules are in the original post.

The upstream radar already looks fairly healthy and would support a widespread 2-4" foundation with the possible local augmented values already discussed. It appears to be a steady light snow all over upstate NY and Vermont already.

Okay, thanks, and I have added your forecast to the earlier table and updated the time stamp to 04z ... two hours are left until the contest closes. We have 19 entries so far. I will check through earlier entries to make sure nobody edited table values that I posted yesterday. Maybe we will get one or two more entries by deadline, maybe not ... good luck to all.

Moderate snow at ROC and radar imagery over w NY and L Ont suggest frontal band is activating and post-frontal squalls are driving in behind, so I would caution that parts of Long Island could see similar results off Long Island Sound by late overnight. Winds are picking up, widespread gusts to 40 mph near Lake Huron and in south central ON.

Front now going through Erie PA and Buffalo NY, still not all that windy as system begins to develop its offshore low component tonight. Will predict right on midnight for fropa at EWR-NYC-LGA, a few minutes earlier for some northern forum people and a few minutes later in parts of NJ and south shore LI. Could be a rather gradual temperature drop judging by post-frontal readings in Ontario, takes six hours after fropa there for readings to go sub-zero (F). With stronger winds it might take four hours to go sub-15 F but probably it will just stabilize at whatever value after sunrise and then drop again tomorrow afternoon/evening.

I edited it to slightly earlier time when I realized where you were asking for, the front has not yet passed Toronto but colder air is moving faster to west of Lake Ontario, going to say the front will be more of a rapid windshift and increasing wind speed feature as it rips through.

Will likely be 0100h up there and 0130-0230h EST further south.

Boosted self esteem I guess.

Okay, just to check that you are predicting the lowest max there? Contest requires lowest max of the three. Note to others: DEADLINE APPROACHES ... 0100h TABLE POSTED, ENTRIES AFTER THAT NOT ELIGIBLE

Where most likely in your opinion? I am thinking there could be 5-6" near ORH and one 4-8" band southeast of BOS maybe Scituate or Plymouth. It will be a general 2-4" further west. I get the higher estimate though, this will take several hours to develop overnight so some place could in theory have nine or ten hours of low density snow.

This winter would be top three futility winters in this region ... we have 5% of normal snowfall to date and both Vancouver and Seattle WA have had no snow at all. They were saying on our local TV news that the last winter with no snow in Vancouver was 1982-83. I recall 1997-98 as being relatively snow free also, but it's rare, there are usually two or three snowfall events on the coast, and my location often has snow almost every day for the core months of winter. Peak snowdepth has averaged 27" here in recent years, this winter it is 4" and now we are down to patches on sheltered lawns and a few icy plow piles. With that temperatures have averaged 2 to 4 F above normal and even bigger anomalies in the past few days.

Basically no warm air advection at surface ahead of front, BUF is only 22F with light southwest wind. Front is near southern end of Georgian Bay in Ontario, will soon be passing Toronto to Ottawa line. Winds behind front moderate northerly so far in this early stage of development but temperature drops rapidly below zero F.

Complaints are proportional to the square of days elapsed since last measurable snowfall. C = D(s)^2 Some authorities give C = D(s)^3

I am sure the forecast for strong winds is correct but note they occur because of the offshore development, right now the north wind behind the cold front in Ontario is only 20-30 mph. Temperature does drop very quickly with the front which is now about one-third of the way through Lake Huron (and halfway through Georgian Bay). It should go through Toronto around 7 p.m. EST and then it accelerates because it is racing to catch up to the offshore low starting to develop tonight. There was never much of a warm sector once this system left the plains states and prairies. Temperatures are not even going to spike at all ahead of this front now. With a light SW wind Buffalo NY is only 22 F. Moderate northerly at Sudbury ON and -4 F.

Still time to enter the contest, deadline is 06z or 0100h tonight. Please note the snowfall period for the contest is Saturday to Tuesday, so any snow falling this evening will not count towards your forecast total. Current location of the cold front is approaching northern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, temps below zero in northeastern ON and around 23-25F in central ON where winds have not yet turned northerly. The front will accelerate and air masses are mixing rapidly as development shifts offshore. My contest forecast of 0.6" would represent a forecast of 1.0" for overnight snow since some will occur before midnight, but I am thinking of adding a bit, looking at any potential for further snow Monday or Tuesday also (these are in the contest period).

Re: start a thread? There already is a thread in the form of the contest for low temperatures and weekend snowfall. If you enter the contest (deadline 06z or 0100h tonight) please note, snowfall as per rules begins on Saturday so anything before midnight won't count towards contest results. Feel free to discuss the cold and snow as well as entering contest there.

Thought I was in the cold weather discussion for some reason. More general comment, this will be a low pressure system with no real warm sector, there's never a notable rise in thickness before it begins to fall off during the IVT formation Friday night. It will be a case of cold air becoming saturated then a stronger northerly wind setting in, as temperatures drop further. Peak temperatures may only be around 25-28 F for many as the snow begins to fall. This low is going to lose its identity while the coastal develops and a "norlun" or IVT forms. Interesting evolution. 2-4" snow potential in places given that ratios will be quite good (15 to 20 : 1 ) Note there is some very cold air in central Quebec waiting to push into this developing IVT and that may cancel out any WAA from the west-northwest. Watch temperature trends in Ohio and Pennsylvania as the dying low approaches.

In case you missed the post I made in western subforum, highs in 70s today in coastal Oregon and in chinook zones of Montana, and near 60F in Vancouver and Seattle. The clipper coming southeast tomorrow will not pull any of that in but right now it is above freezing in southern Manitoba so you may get a brief spike in temps Friday afternoon or evening before the arctic cold front arrives. It quickly falls to -30 F (-34 C) as that front passes through northern Manitoba. The source of the cold air is transpolar but more from Greenland than Alaska or Siberia.

This early list will provide contest entrants with a faster way to review entries ... if you edit one of these, your order of entry will change. Entries are still welcome until deadline of 0100h Saturday (06z) or just after midnight Friday. Contest entries to 04z Saturday February 6th listed in order of coldest max to warmest max, then coldest min to warmest min within each group FORECASTER (order of entry) ___________ MAX _ MIN ___ snow Roger Smith (xx) __________________________16 ___ 4 _____ 0.6" RJay (18) _________________________________ 16 ___ 4 _____ 0.2" Northshorewx ( 7 ) _______________________ 16 ___ 6 _____ 0.4" CPcantmeasuresnow (12) ________________ 17 ___ 3 _____ 1.4" Tony (via RJay post) (15) _________________ 17 ___ 2 _____ 0.6" bkviking (14) _____________________________ 17 ___ 4 _____ 0.7" DonSutherland1 ( 1 ) ______________________ 17 ___ 6 _____ 0.2" TriPol ( 9 ) ________________________________ 18 ___-1 _____ 1.3" IYC77 ( 6 ) ________________________________ 18 ___ 7 _____ 0.8" dmillz25 (10) ______________________________19 ___ 5 _____ 0.7" Stormlover74 (11) _________________________ 19 ___ 7 _____ 0.4" coastalplainsnowman ( 2 ) ________________19 ___ 9 _____ 0.75" SACRUS ( 3 ) _____________________________20 ___ 5 _____ 0.4" [email protected] ( 4 ) ___________ 20 ___ 9 _____ -- -- snowman19 (17) __________________________ 21 ___ 2 _____ 0.5" wxallannj ( 8 ) ____________________________ 21 ___ 8 _____ 0.2" Prue11 ( 5 ) _______________________________ 21 ___ 9 _____ Tr Rwes1 (13) _______________________________ 22 ___ 8 _____ 0.1" PositiveEPOEnjoyer (16) __________________24 ___ 8 _____ 0.5" ___________________________- Contest rules are in the original post. 19 emtries to date.

This will be an awesome weather weekend but football? May be a fridge too far. Ideal weather at San Fran for the SuperBowl. Not saying Pats are a shabby team but Seahawks have a lot of assets, will be one of the better games anyway. I hope Seahawks don't do that snatch defeat from the jaws of victory they did one previous time. May be in a minority on that.

In the very mild air mass, dense fog developed late overnight and has persisted all day in many parts of eastern WA and southern interior BC. It returned to yesterday's very warm readings closer to the coast and also in chinook zones. Some current readings: 73F Tillamook OR, 68F Cut Bank MT (71F highest value in MT), 59F Portland OR and Abbotsford BC (Fraser valley), 36F dense fog Spokane WA, 43F dense fog outside my place, visibility under 100 yards. Probably sunny on local peaks but visible satellite shows widespread low cloud in valleys.

Would I be right in assuming Liberty Bell = Weathergeek2005 = Tony? Asking because RJay posted a forecast from Tony in contest and RJay's inbox is full so I can't ask him that way.

The lowest thickness values of 505 dm are over NYC around 06z Sunday (0100h EST Sunday) after which they slowly increase. It could be one of those nights in rural areas where temperatures tank in the evening, hit rock bottom after midnight then waver or rise slightly towards dawn. In rural areas of NJ and se NY could see -10 F or lower. The air mass waiting to come south is not brutally cold, it is currently -30F in western Nunavut (Ennadai Lake, Rankin Inlet) to -35 C at Cambridge Bay. But there's a pool of -35 C over northern Quebec that will be pulled into the circulation without having to cross any bodies of water to get to western New England or the Hudson valley. Great Lakes influence will be modified too, as Lake Erie is frozen over in many areas, and Lakes Huron and Ontario have near-freezing water temps and some ice cover too. Hudson and James Bay are of course frozen now but even so air crossing ice covered water can pick up slight amounts of heat if snow cover on that ice is not overly deep.