Roger Smith

Final scoring for November 2022 These scores are based on final anomalies as posted in the table above. IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA are scored from minimum progression (60, 54, 48 ... 12, 6, 0) with some values boosted by 2-4 points to account for actual differentials if they were within one or two tenths of the next higher progression value. Normal has raw score for IAH, and scaled adjusted scores for DEN, PHX and SEA. DEN has an odd situation for scoring in that one forecast (mine) was quite close to nullifying minimum progression and all the other forecasts would have scored in the range 00-20 on raw scores alone. However, I determined that the scores derived from the usual minimum progression rules did not impose any significant penalties on any of the higher scoring contenders and I tried to keep the differentials similar to what they had been with the raw scores. Given that I am well outside the scoring range for most forecasters on an annual basis, my own disadvantage in this application has no actual result for the contest outcome. FORECASTER ________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL BKViking _____________________ 94 _ 90 _ 62 __ 246 __ 86 _ 92_ 60^__ 238 _484 _ 50^_ 36^_ 48^__134 ____ 618 RodneyS _____________________ 74 _ 88 _ 58 __ 220 __ 92 _ 88 _ 54^__ 234 _ 454 _ 40^_ 58^_ 60^__158 ____ 612 wxdude64 ___________________ 90 _ 94 _ 68 __ 252 __ 76 _ 96 _ 42^__ 214 _ 466 __ 22^_ 48^_ 54^__124 ____590 wxallannj _____________________ 82 _ 84 _ 98 __ 264 __ 82 _ 74 _ 36^__ 192 _ 456 _ 28^_ 18^_ 48^__094 ____550 ___ Consensus _______________ 90 _ 88 _ 86 __ 264 __ 72 _ 74 _ 32^__ 178 _ 442 _ 34^_ 36^_ 30^__100 ____ 542 DonSutherland1 ______________ 94 _98 _ 76__ 268 __ 48 _ 96 _ 28^__ 172 _ 440 _ 10^_ 42^_ 40^__ 092 ____ 532 Roger Smith __________________ 76 _ 62 _ 72 __ 210 __ 44 _ 72 _ 32^__ 148 _ 358 _ 60^_60^_ 30^__150 ____ 508 Tom __________________________ 90 _ 88 _ 86 __ 264 __ 62 _ 72 _ 12^__ 146 _ 410 _ 50^_ 28^_ 10^__088 ____ 498 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 70 _ 80 _ 88 __ 238 __ 48 _ 88 _ 22^__ 158 _ 396 _ 16^_ 36^_ 18^__070 ____466 Scotty Lightning ______________68 _ 62 _ 34 __ 164 __ 78 _ 82 _ 52^ __ 212 _ 374 _ 54^_ 18^_ 16^__088 ____ 464 ___ Normal ____________________48 _ 42 _ 14 __ 104 __ 58 _ 52 _ 68 __ 178 _ 282 _ 57^ _ 44^_ 26^__ 127 ____409 StormchaserChuck! __________ 52 _ 58 _ 86 ___196 __ 72 _ 48 _ 00 __ 120 _ 316 _ 16^_ 00 _ 04^__020 ____ 336 RJay __________________________52 _ 08 _ 46 __ 106 __ 02 _ 68 _ 06^__ 076 _ 182 _ 34^_ 06^_ 26^__066 ____248 __________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL each finished close enough to consensus that no extreme forecasts scored higher than third. ORD and ATL narrowly missed qualifying as a win-loss situation but third coldest forecast took high score (ORD, tied ATL). IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA are all wins for coldest forecasts, from BKViking (IAH), Roger Smith (DEN, PHX) and RodneyS (SEA). Normal also scores a win for IAH. =========

I found some data for Fort Erie, ON which is across the border from Buffalo. The period Jan 26 to 31 1977 had these snowfalls (measured in inches, my source has converted them to cm, Canada went metric the next year though) ... A lot of snow fell there, whether it was from the sky or the lake this is what was reported along with max and min temps to show how frigid the blizzard period was ... Date ____________ Snow (in) ____ Max (F) __ Min (F): 26th Jan 1977 _____ 7.0 _________ 21 _______ 15 27th Jan 1977 ____ 11.0 _________ 20 ________ 4 28th Jan 1977 _____ 5.0 ________ 20 _________ 0 29th Jan 1977 ____ 12.0 ________ 11 _________-11 30th Jan 1977 _____ 4.0 ________ 10 _________ -8 31st Jan 1977 ______4.0 ________ 17 __________ 3 ____________________ 43.0" total _ 16.5 _______ 0.5 avg temps Light snowfalls continued for several days into Feb 1977 with gradually moderating temperatures. I would estimate there was 15 inches of snow on the ground when this began and as Don has mentioned it was an extremely cold month (and two month interval, the winter began to moderate in stages through Feb 1977). This event was accompanied by very strong winds, I don't have a specific number from this location but St Catharines A had gusts in the 40-50 mph range every day during this period. Snowfalls at that location (about 30 miles northwest near Lake Ontario) were only about 15 inches in total and snow depths were decreasing from snow depths at a rate suggesting that even that snow was being blown away by the strong winds. So that "Buffalo blizzard" had frigid temperatures and wind chills. I remember it was just sunny and cold most of that week in southern Ontario and Toronto sent a convoy of snow plows south to help out, whether it was in Fort Erie or Buffalo I don't recall.

Don or anyone able to find the data, surprised not to see any dates from late Jan 1977 (the infamous Buffalo blizzard) in that list, what were the amounts then? I remember seeing news stories (out of Buffalo as I lived in range of WBEN etc) talking about six feet of snow and the city cut off etc. Was it more of a wind factor with that, or do you find any missing days there (probably 26th-31st Jan and possibly 1st-2nd Feb). Maybe it evades the list by spreading out a lot of snowfall in 12" type amounts over five days? Looking at that list, I think the Jan 1902 and March 1936 storms were probably entirely synoptic and not lake effect (based on Toronto having similar record amounts on those days, and also inspection of historical weather maps), and the Jan 11 1982 storm was probably a mix of 6-8" of storm snowfall and subsequent lake effect.

Do the local governments around BUF place identifying poles on fire hydrants? They do that in some snowy areas in this country. Once there's a lot of snow on the ground and plows have made huge piles beside the roads, if there's a fire then these poles indicate to firefighters where to find a hydrant. Crews dig them out as soon as possible so the fire-fighters don't also have to do that. The poles are left behind though as wind could drift the snow back into the dugouts and it wouldn't be visually obvious where they were. I have seen a similar amount of snow once, in Jan 1976 a heavy squall band hit London, ON. I don't recall if any weather stations had the maximum amounts, the nearby airport was only about half as badly snowed in. Another very large dump of snow happened in the Georgian Bay snow belt in the week of Jan 26 to 31, 1971. I was about a hundred miles to the south of that one, but got fairly close to the maximum snowfall zone a few weeks later, most of it stayed on the ground until mid-March.

LOL, Buffalo Weather is getting snowstorms every six hours that would generate hundred-page threads on most forums.

Heaviest bands will likely shift north for part of Saturday as winds back to SSW ahead of trough due to impact the region Saturday night. Winds likely to increase steadily tomorrow and peak at 35-45 mph Saturday night. I realize having lived in a snow belt region once upon a time that winds inside these steady-state snow bands can be rather variable and you can get some boundary winds near the edges of them that are hard to model or predict. But on the larger scale, winds should become more of an issue tomorrow and Sunday. Looking at a recent satellite image which I have added (it will update so can be used by later readers, check time stamp), you will note the upper level trough in the western Lake Superior region, ahead of that winds will back to SSW then slowly return to WSW, becoming WNW after it passes (est 10 p.m. Sat for BUF). Notice also that Lake Erie is almost 100% covered by lake effect generating cloud mass, parts of western Lake Ontario remain cloud-free. http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_ecan_1070_100.jpg

This month could see a record differential between first and second half temperatures for November ... at NYC where the average drop is 5.6 deg in mean temperature (1-15 to 16-30 Nov), these are the top eight differentials: 1 __ 1880 ___ 20.1 (49.0 to 28.9) ___ 2022 (57.8 to ???) needs to average 37.6 to beat this 2 __ 1938 ___ 16.8 (56.7 to 39.9) ___ any second half 37.8 to 40.9 gives 2022 second place 3 __ 2008 ___ 16.0 (53.8 to 37.8) 4 __ 1888 ___ 15.9 (53.1 to 37.2) 5t__ 1903 ___ 15.0 (49.6 to 34.6) 5t__ 1936 ___ 15.0 (50.2 to 35.2) 7 __ 1974 ___ 14.8 (55.6 to 40.8) 8 __ 1929 ___ 14.5 (53.4 to 38.9) ___ a 2022 second half of 43.3 would tie with this final contender _____________________________________ Of these, only 1938 and 1974 had notably warm starts, although most including 1903 had a couple of warm days. In 1880 it was more of a change from variable near normal to extreme cold which then persisted (at least intermittently) for much of the winter that followed. Despite the warm start in 1975, that second half was still above normal and the drop was only 10.2 deg. As these are mean temperatures, it should be noted that even a small diurnal range around 6-8 deg would imply that mean maxima are 3-4 above the values discussed above.

What happens before a Buffalo snowstorm? They get a foot of snow.

Hope you're tall, Jeb. This looks like it might shift north towards Niagara Falls for some part of Saturday then drift back south again Saturday night, could be snowing at a rate of 6-8 inches an hour during that period. Will shift further south Sunday mid-day then weaker snow shifts north back into BUF Sunday night. Despite warm advection might continue well into Monday at a lesser rate. (did not read the above post until this got posted, seems about the same)

This month, first half similar to 1975, second half begins to look like 1875. Some very cold maps on 00z GFS run.

Looks to me like 2-4 feet of snow by Saturday then a reinforcing shot of deeper cold creating extreme conditions on Sunday on top of that, seems quite possible to me that it equals or even outdoes 2014 eventually. The storm "chase" will be a question of where do you most want to become snowed in? The recovery would be rather slow as temperatures look set to remain in the high 30s to low 40s most of the following week, one third to half of this snow could still be on the ground by following weekend when a mixed event is indicated for the region.

I think one has to insist that one is always right to qualify as a crank, if one just says they are working on developing a theory and have seen good results from it, but do not claim that it's a finished work that operates like a fully accepted scientific theory, then one avoids that designation. Anyway, if I don't, it won't make any difference, either this is a good path or not a good path. I think it's a good path. And yes, being 73 does open up questions of preserving the work, I have a lot of contacts on various weather forums and in my personal life, this work won't just disappear entirely when I do. If I do, I am quite healthy and the way medical advances are going, ya never know. My first summary may have made this point, but I thought I would underscore this, when I talk about the role of lunar tidal forces, they are only being claimed as partly responsible for weather systems, not patterns, those are more likely to be linked to variations in the solar system magnetic field. One could believe the latter but not my contention that planetary positions in orbit modulate this, so a test of the hypothesis could be two part, does the pattern reflect the state of the SSMF, and does that reflect planetary positions? It could in theory be yes for (a) and no for (b). There may be others researching that concept, when you hear the term "space weather" it is not this specific, it is used more as a title for a field of study and reporting but it does refer to energy flux from the Sun and how that impacts on our atmosphere. I have read other scientific papers, some published (mostly in eastern Europe) and some just circulated for review, investigating many of the same concepts as my theory attempts to develop. The lunar portion had some other adherents back in the mid-20th century, I don't think it survived to the present time. The problem for other researchers has always been that they never caught on to the timing line concept and expected the energy levels to appear everywhere at once. This of course is not going to happen, the atmosphere is not going to ebb and flow as a whole entity, such energy flows will always be localized. Why an interference pattern? Well the main reason is that unlike the oceans, the atmosphere has no absolute boundaries (in the horizontal axis), there are partial boundaries presented by mountain ranges and the ITCZ, but energy flowing around in the atmosphere will not be constrained by coasts like ocean tides. If the world had an unbroken ocean, tidal effects would start to operate in the same way, an interference pattern, since the waves of energy keep moving outward. Having coastlines means that oceans have to produce periodic tides. and the more constraining the coast, the bigger the tides.

The dynamics for the wind gust potential don't look all that severe now, but the dry slot to the west may force this oncoming frontal rain to max out over the NYC region, further west, lower totals until central PA with the heavier rain from the dying tropical depression over w PA and upstate NY towards BGM and BTV. Could be some locations in n NJ that get essentially dry slotted until the cold front arrives.

Updated reports on anomalies and projections: ________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _11th __ (10d anom) ___ +10.2_ +9.7 _+10.2 __+11.9 _+10.5_ +6.3 __ +2.1 _ -5.9 _ -6.2 _21st __ (20d anom) ___ +3.4_ +3.6 _ +5.3 ___+1.4 __+1.5 _ -2.7 __ -5.4 _ -6.2 _ -5.2 _11th __ (p20d anom)___ +4.0_ +4.0 _ +4.0 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 __ -4.0 _ -3.0 _ -5.0 _11th __ (p27 anom) ____ +3.0_ +3.0 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 __ -2.0 _ -2.0 _ -3.5 _21st __ (p30 anom) ____ +2.5 _+2.0 _+4.0 __ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ -1.5 ___ -3.0 _ -4.0 _ -3.5 _26th __ (p30 anom) ____+3.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ -1.5 ___ -3.5 _ -4.5 _ -3.5 _ 1st __ anomalies _______+2.6 _+2.9 _+4.3 __ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ -1.6 ___ -3.8 _ -4.9 _ -4.5 -------------- (11th) _ After a very warm start in eastern and central regions, much colder air will be arriving within a few days, the impact will be particularly strong for ORD and DEN, somewhat less for the eastern stations. This will push the very large anomalies back into a more typical range. After the 21st the flow appears to return to a modified mild pattern so the values reached by the 20th are held relatively close, with any severe cold in the western regions also flushed out for a time. (21st) _ The very cold spell has more or less cancelled out most of the very warm start, while the west stayed cool. The last ten days of the month appear closer to normal or even slightly above in some cases, so the projections are based on averages between zero and +2 for that interval. (27th) _ The provisionals have been adjusted in some cases. Preliminary scoring has been adjusted also ... (1st Dec) _ Final anomalies are being posted, scoring adjusted when these are confirmed.

As to Nicole not being a 'cane at landfall, probably true near the center, but if you noted that report from the space center further north (100 mph gusts above the surface), I think what happened was that strongest winds decoupled from the core when the storm straddled the coast, and were ejected north. So there was a hurricane aspect to the landfall, but very non-classical as to location of that remnant. How are storm surge outcomes north of the Cape? That might be another aspect that was better anticipated from hurricane Nicole than TS Nicole designations. It's sort of like the Sandy landfall in that what the storm was named could mislead some vulnerable coastal residents, in hindsight many thought that Sandy should have been retained as a hurricane to landfall. Some in storm surge situations might have (wrongly) surmised that Sandy wasn't even a hurricane any more, and let their guard down. This was widely discussed IIRC in the days after landfall. Also a storm with a 16' storm surge and 90 mph wind gusts could safely be called a hurricane for a few extra hours.

The strong side of this eye is about to hit the Cape (Space coast) in about 2h from now, would say the eye is now 60% inland with the center about 20 miles south of Melbourne FL.

I don't see much "radar degradation" and the eye is still about 50% over the ocean. Is landfall when the eyewall hits the coast or when the center of the eye hits the coast?

Just starting to cross the warmer core of Gulf stream, I would say Nicole reaches at least low end cat-2 at some point tonight, possibly mid-range cat-2, and also performs more of a curve north than model consensus, earlier was asking people what they thought of a grazing coastal track, possibly some inland movement now probable, but I think Nicole will try to stay over warm water as long as it can, could mean a landfall Jupiter to Melbourne. Never all that far inland, heads up NNW with enough of circulation over water to retain cat-1 intensity for quite a while, strong TS near Georgia coast in 36-42h. Long duration fetch means storm surge issues must be taken very seriously. This is now almost as strong as Sandy approaching NJ and Staten Island comes to mind. Were not the storm surge forecasts lowballed there? Or did people not take accurate warnings seriously? One or other as I recall.

This will be a complex interaction and I don't think one should take 48-72h guidance with its usual reasonable precision either. Once this makes the turn and seeks out the oncoming Colorado low, all bets are off.

How about a similar temperature profile with less snow? Something like -2, +2, +1 for the three months. Here's something interesting too, this November in western Europe resembles Nov 2009 to some extent. Later Greenland blocking potential?

Thanks, BUF had about 1.4" of rain and 6.2" of snow (only on 10th), highs in 50s to 32F on 10th.

Does anyone have access to weather records in PA or upstate NY from Nov 9, 1913? On that date, a strong low formed over GA and tracked north into southern ON, creating the northerly winds over Lake Huron that caused a huge loss of shipping on night of 9-10th. Would be especially interested in total rainfalls 8th-10th. Temps (based on Toronto) probably in mid-60s dropping to 30s by 10th.

This Saturday event could be epic but perhaps a bit further west? I see strong chances of a phaser that drops a quick 4-6 inches of rain maybe in ePA and central upstate NY. Closer to 2" for NYC metro, peak wind gusts perhaps into 60s. If it tracks over western LI though then the NYC metro could get the 4-6" rains. There was a "snow hurricane" in autumn 1804, I don't think the air mass is quite cold enough to wrap around the phased storm that quickly here, in fact I see better chances of the actual final result being a lower Great Lakes phaser like Nov 1913 to some extent. The mid-latitude low was back in eastern UT last time I looked at maps, maybe it's into w CO now. Lots of cold air available, it's about -15 C in most of western Canada today. I have -5 C here and a fresh 8-10" snow cover, full on winter here after so many weeks of way above normal ending Oct 20th. We have not been above normal since then.

Are you not entertained? Anyway what I really expect is a fairly normal winter for your region with perhaps one good wintry spell and a brief snow covering from one big storm, if you're thinking 2015-16 analogue, sort of like that only I don't think this December will be anywhere near as warm as Dec 2015, in fact it could be where the wintry spell happens. A better analogue might be 1963-64.

At the risk of over-simplifying some rather complicated constructs in my own research, the energy level concept can be taken to mean potential energy for storm intensity following a theory that atmospheric variations are partly governed by external astronomical factors, notably lunar, operating within an interference pattern type of grid in the atmosphere. This interference pattern has been postulated to consist of nine focal "timing lines" which can oscillate but at equilibrium are located around the hemisphere at equal separations, starting from the first (arbitrarily defined) timing line which corresponds to the geomagnetic feature known as the invariant arc (where compass north is due north) but smoothed out and running approximately Beaufort Sea s.s.e. through central northern Canada to western Great Lakes, South Carolina and on towards west Africa (all of this grid is postulated to be reflected in the southern hemisphere; the magnetic poles are taken as "meteorological north poles" although a separate set of assumptions is required to handle polar climate outcomes in better detail. So the other timing lines run parallel to that one, you would be located fairly close to timing line 9 which drops out of the western arctic through BC, Idaho, w Colorado into e NM and then towards the GOM. The timing lines are numbered (arbitrarily again) in an eastward direction. ... So the energy level hypothesis in its raw form states that storm development near these nine timing lines will depend on an interaction between lunar tidal forces (moving through the interference pattern) and conventional meteorological considerations which involve placing ridges and troughs in this grid, also based on certain assumptions about solar system magnetic field interactions with our atmosphere. The net result is that one can forecast at least in terms of statistical averages how the circulation will respond and within that, using principles that every other type of model also uses, generating storm track intensity predictions. Split flow outcomes in this model will create separate low pressure areas on timing lines but they will not be aligned north-south, but along the curving grid lines of the model, so that for example on some occasions a low moving through west Texas could be in phase in this model with another low in the eastern GOM or in central BC or the Yukon. You could find a much more detailed summary over at the Net-weather forum in their science sub-forum, under my name (same as here except that to create an account I had to use my middle initial so I am Roger J Smith on net-weather). As I say, this is a theory under development, and not widely known, certainly not accepted (for whatever that's worth in this world, acceptance of certain ideas and rejection of others now appearing to be some sort of cosmic circus and of little interest to an old guy with better things to do than butt heads with scientific authorities).