Roger Smith

Maybe this northwest gale will blow the warm water away and we can get going on some actual winter? Or maybe not.

A R _ T I _ B L A S T I'd like to solve, with spelchek

These are excerpts from Alexis Caswell's weather journal at Brown University Providence RI. Three classic cold outbreaks from 1855 to 1857 with his comments. FEB 1855 _ After several rather cold days, severe cold set in during the 6th, when it was -3F at sunrise, -7F at mid-day and -14F in the evening; by morning of the 7th Caswell measured -15F and commented it was the coldest reading in the 24 years he had kept up the observations. The mercury only recovered to 10F at mid-day, started to fall a bit in the evening but then snow began and became heavy, Caswell measured 1.25" liquid and stated that 12 to 14 inches of snow had fallen by 9th, with moderate northeast winds drifting it considerably. It stayed rather cold for a few more days then a thaw with heavy rain followed (2.80" fell 14th-15th, temperatures recovered to the low 40s). JAN 1856 _ He describes a "violent" two-day snowstorm on the 6th with 18-20 inches of snow, very strong northeast winds, and mid-day temperatures only 11F and 19F. Temperatures struggled up to 30F by the 8th with a light 2" snowfall followed by a sharp temperature drop to -8F the morning of the 9th, and a mid-day reading of only 2F. This cold wave moderated slightly on the 10th and severe cold did not return until the 25th when readings were between 5 and 7 F with strong northwest winds. The first half of February was generally very cold, with a remarkably fast drop from 40s to single digits on the 12th, and -3F on the morning of 13th. Then another severe cold wave struck in March, perhaps the coldest March weather recorded in the region. Mid-day readings on 9th and 10th were only 11F and 13F with a morning low of -2F on 10th. Caswell commented that the moderately strong west to northwest winds at the start of this cold wave made it excessively cold. Only 2" of snow fell before it turned cold but given the winter in general there was probably at least some snow cover before that fell. There were enough variations in temperature to lead me to speculate that it was probably a frozen snow cover of about 8-10 inches at that point. Warming later in the month was very modest and the 31st had a temperature range of 19 to 31 degrees, Caswell said this was "cold but not unpleasant" so I guess he was resigned to it by then. JAN 1857 _ There had been severe cold on Dec 18th (range -5 to 2 F) and the entire month of January 1857 was extremely cold with a mean around 15F. There were no 40 degree temperatures until the 27th. A snowfall of 10" on the 3rd probably remained untouched during two weeks of frigid weather, despite generally dry conditions. It became exceptionally cold on the 18th with -9F in the morning, slowly moderating during the day but then a ferocious snowstorm began, lasting through the 19th with strong northeast to north winds and according to Caswell, it was an exceptional and violent snowstorm, 2.50" of liquid gave 18" of snow although it was much drifted by extreme winds (he used a five point wind speed scale and rarely used the 5, gives that for sunrise 19th). Temperatures during the blizzard never exceeded 12F. Snow fell to mid-day after which he says the air was "full of snow" indicating severe blowing snow. However once the blizzard passed, a slight moderation followed with a high of 36F on the 21st. Light snow fell at times on 21st and early 22nd and then the temperature began to fall rapidly. It was -6F by 10 p.m. 22nd and stood at -14F at sunrise 23rd with a "force 4 (out of 5) NW wind" making it "exceptionally severe to be outside." The mid-day reading was only -5F making it about equal to Feb 7, 1855 for sustained cold. The next morning (23rd, a Saturday in 1857) it was back down to -14 F. (an aside, this event produced record cold in Toronto also, the lowest reading was -22F and a high of -13 F on the 22nd). There was slight but steady moderation thereafter, and in February 1857 temperatures swang to the other extreme, with severe flooding as a result. Starting with a heavy fall of wet snow and rain on Jan 31, two weeks of incredible oscillations followed (my wording not his), with a heavy rainfall of 1.25" and temperatures near 50F on the 7th-8th with dense fog not surprisingly. It fell to -3F on the morning of the 12th, accompanied by a barometer reading of 30.87" which Caswell says was the highest he had ever seen to that point. It then turned very mild with more heavy rainfalls. The highs on 16th to 18th were at least 55, 61, 57 (his mid-day readings, he does not mention any specific highs as he sometimes did during extreme spells). I think I recall reading about severe flooding on the Connecticut River during this event although it could have been due to the the earlier 7th-8th rainfall. No doubt ice jams were prolific given the depth of earlier snow and severity of cold. Anyway, this seems to be the time to set your time machine, 1854 to 1857 would be epic. Before those three winters, the winter of 1853-54 was mostly more "normal" but there was a heavy snowstorm on Dec 30, 1853 leaving a cover of 16-18 inches. The summer of 1854 had severe heat waves and forest fires must have erupted somewhere in upstate NY or maybe closer, as his comments include thick smoke at times. The highest temperatures Caswell ever witnessed were in the high 90s, he never saw a 100+ reading. Caswell (who lived from 1799 to 1877 and was a professor at Brown U with interests in astronomy as well as meteorology) kept this journal from 1831 to 1860, and became associated with the Smithsonian Institute, part of a movement to create an American weather bureau which was realized at some point during his later years, so perhaps we could say he was the original weather weenie (unless that was Benjamin Franklin). His comments sound remarkably modern in places despite the change in the language from the mid-19th century to today. He was certainly fortunate to be observing through many very extreme years (and several very active solar cycles with the dark skies of his era, producing many vivid descriptions of aurorae), in particular these three years, but also some other remarkable events that are not seen nowadays, such as a mixed rain and snow nor'easter in the first week of October, 1841. He had one brush with a hurricane (October 7, 1849) but did not use the term hurricane and I have to wonder if he knew it was a hurricane at the time (I feel certain he would have known of the existence of hurricanes). The eye of it seemed to pass near his location during the 7th. He recorded 2.75" of rain and noted heavy rain with thunder around 07-08h 7th. If you want to see this journal, I would suggest you go to the Alexis Caswell page on wikipedia and look for the link under Biography. I tried block-copying the link but as I live in Canada I think it takes me to a part of google that you cannot access, so I would have to think your link will be different but takes you to the same place, where there are links to an e-book showing the full journal. It's worth seeing. He didn't comment very often in the first decade and became more and more active with the comments. His reports include three daily temperature and barometer reports, cloud amounts, and wind data using that five point scale I mentioned. His precip reports are mostly daily and sometimes two or three day events just summed up without breaking them down by days.

According to 18z RGEM the thickness drops to 498 dm from Newburgh to Islip by 06z and NYC is at about 500. Winds will no doubt slacken considerably towards dawn as the high approaches. Could imagine -10F or lower in Hudson valley and will guess overnight lows of 0 or 1 F at CP and JFK, -3 at EWR, ISP and LGA. No snow cover or those could be -5 F to -8 F. Seems unfair to get it this cold without an antecedent snowfall (of any consequence) or apparently a post-cold spell snowfall right away at least. I don't think we've been below -20 C here all winter and we have had a constant snow pack of 20-40 cm or more since early November.

Some 6 p.m. temps upstream in eastern Ontario .. Bancroft -27 C (-17 F) Ottawa -26 C (-15 F) Peterborough -23 C (-10 F) Kingston -23 C (-10 F) Trenton -22 C (-8 F) Toronto airport -16 C (3 F) Record low for Toronto (downtown) for morning of 4th is -29 C (-20 F) set in 1863 before any appreciable urban effect existed (the downtown weather station at that time was in a rural setting on the edge of the much smaller city). A more recent minimum downtown was -7F in 1970. The lowest maximum on today's date was -18 C (0 F) set in 1886. It was -19 C (-3 F) for a maximum on the 4th. There were even colder spells in Feb 1855 and Feb 1895 starting on the 4th but peaking in severity 5th-7th. I don't think it can reach -20F nowadays in downtown Toronto, but other stations without records in the 19th century are sure to set records tomorrow morning. The lowest temperature at 6 p.m. anywhere in Ontario was -31 C (-24 F) at Moosonee on James Bay and it was also -30 C (-22 F) at Timmins in northeastern Ontario. In Quebec the 6 p.m. highlights are -26 C Montreal (-15 F), -29 C (-20 F) Quebec City, and also at Sherbrooke near the NH border. Many locations in central Quebec around -30 to -35 C and coldest is -39 C (-38F) in the subarctic community of Puvirnituq.

That unusual volcanic event in Tonga blasted a lot of water vapor into the upper atmosphere. I've read that this, unlike volcanic ash dust veils, could have a warming influence. The location is in the southern tropics but effects could have spread into eastern Asia and the western North Pacific by now. This could also be related to the strange weather patterns we see this winter in North America? Just another part of the overall bad hand we have been dealt.

The GFS, I think that is short for great for second week because it usually is. Snowfall opportunities in the northeast, not too clearly defined, followed by a powerful second cold wave, looks quite ominous for central states near end of the run (19th). Sort of 1979 vibes with this. Could come to nothing but something to track anyway.

Table of forecasts for February 2023 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stormchaser Chuck _________+5.5 _ +6.0 _ +6.5 ___ +5.5 _ +5.0 _ +3.5 __ +1.0 _-2.0 _ -3.0 RJay _________________________+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +5.0 ___ +3.5 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 __-1.0 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 BKViking _____________________+3.8 _ +3.4 _ +3.4 ___+2.2 _ +3.2 _ +1.2 __+0.8_ +0.2 _+0.2 so_whats_happening ________+3.3 _ +3.3 _ +3.1 ___ +3.0 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 __-2.0 _ -1.2 _ -0.8 wxdude64 ___________________+3.1 _ +3.0 _ +2.8 ___ +0.6 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 __ -0.7 _-0.7 _ -0.4 wxallannj ____________________ +2.9 _ +3.2 _ +3.0 ___+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.6 __ -0.6 _-1.2 _ -0.4 ___ Consensus ______________ +2.9 _ +3.1 _ +2.9 ___ +2.1 _ +2.6 _ +1.6 ___ -0.6 _ -1.2 _ -0.9 Roger Smith _________________+2.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.5 ___ +2.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.7 __ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 Tom _________________________ +2.7 _ +2.3 _ +1.9 ___ +1.4 __+2.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.4 _ -0.9 _ -1.1 DonSutherland1 _____________+2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ___ +1.0 _ +3.5 _ +1.5 ___ -1.0 _ -2.3 _ -1.6 hudsonvalley21 _____________ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.0 ___ +1.8 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 ___ +0.2 _-1.4 _ -0.8 RodneyS ____________________ +1.5 _ +2.1 __ +1.4 ___ +2.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___-1.6 _ -1.8 _ -1.6 Scotty Lightning ____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 ______________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH. Persistence (added Sep 2023) __ _ Jan 2023 ano s ___________ ___ Persistence ___________ +7.7 _ +9.8 _ +7.9 __ +7.1 _ +6.9 _ +4.1 __ -6.7 _ -2.9 _ +0.7

It's interesting that no readings above 65 occurred between 7th and 14th inclusive. Perhaps this year will void that outcome. The record high for the 7th is particularly low-hanging and could go soon, you would think.I have also listed any other readings not (or no longer) record highs in the 65+ category. Also listed are any "warmest since" more ancient records (two from 1874 and 1890 as well as LYD 1880 have survived). February record high maxima and minima for NYC (Central Park) Date _____ Hi max ______ Hi min __________ Other maxima 65+ (and warmest since records set before 1980) Feb 01 ___ 67 1989 ____ 50 1988 _________ Feb 02 ___ 59 1988 ____ 42 1952 Feb 03 ___ 64 1991 ____ 46 1999,2006 Feb 04 ___ 68 1991 ____ 46 1991 _________ Feb 05 ___ 70 1991 ____ 51 1991 __________ also 68 in 1890, 65 in 2019 Feb 06 ___ 68 2008 ____ 42 1884,1938 Feb 07 ___ 56 2020 ____ 42 1904 __________previous record was 54 (1938) Feb 08 ___ 62 2017 ____ 48 1965 Feb 09 ___ 63 1990 ____ 46 2005 Feb 10 ___ 61 1990,2001_ 43 1999 Feb 11 ___ 65 1960,2009 _50 1966 Feb 12 ___ 62 1999,2018 _ 45 1966 Feb 13 ___ 64 1951 ____ 47 1880 Feb 14 ___ 63 1946 ____ 50 1949 __________ 1949 was 59F, warmest since 1949 are 1990, 2011 58F Feb 15 ___ 73 1949 ____ 49 1984 ___________ 69 in 1954, warmest since that 62 in 2018 Feb 16 ___ 71 1954 ____ 44 2002 ___________ warmest since 1954 was 60 in 1976 (also 62 in 1921) Feb 17 ___ 68 2022 ____ 49 2022 ___________ also 67 in 1976 Feb 18 ___ 68 1981 ____ 48 1981 ____________ also 67 in 2011 Feb 19 ___ 66 1997 ____ 53 2017 ____________ also 65 in 2017 Feb 20 ___ 69 1930,39__48 1939 ____________ also 67 in 2018 Feb 21 ___ 78 2018 ____55 2018 _____________ also 68 in 1930, 67 in 1953 Feb 22 ___ 69 1997 ____ 46 1996 _____________also 66 in 1874, 1991 Feb 23 ___ 72 1874 ____ 55 1985 _____________ (warmest since 1874 was 70F in 1985, also 68F in 2022, 65F in 2017). Feb 24 ___ 75 1985 ____ 58 2017 _____________ also 65 in 1930, 1961 Feb 25 ___ 75 1930 ____ 51 1930 _____________ also 70 in 1976, 67 in 1985 Feb 26 ___ 65 1890 ____ 49 1976 _____________ warmest since 1890 was 62 in 1951, 1976 Feb 27 ___ 72 1997 ____ 49 1976 _____________ also 68 in 1880, 67 in 1976, 66 in 1971 Feb 28 ___ 67 1976 ____ 47 1903,10,2017 ________ warmest since 1976 was 62 in 1997 Feb 29 ___ 69 1880 ____ 47 1896, 2016 ______ warmest since 1880 was 67 in 1976 (61 in 2016) -- - - - - - - - - - - --

It's interesting that no readings above 65 occurred between 7th and 14th inclusive. Perhaps this year will void that outcome. The record high for the 7th is particularly low-hanging and could go soon, you would think.I have also listed any other readings not (or no longer) record highs in the 65+ category. Also listed are any "warmest since" more ancient records (two from 1874 and 1890 as well as LYD 1880 have survived). February record high maxima and minima for NYC (Central Park) Date _____ Hi max ______ Hi min __________ Other maxima 65+ (and warmest since records set before 1980) Feb 01 ___ 67 1989 ____ 50 1988 _________ Feb 02 ___ 59 1988 ____ 42 1952 Feb 03 ___ 64 1991 ____ 46 1999,2006 Feb 04 ___ 68 1991 ____ 46 1991 _________ Feb 05 ___ 70 1991 ____ 51 1991 __________ also 68 in 1890, 65 in 2019 Feb 06 ___ 68 2008 ____ 42 1884,1938 Feb 07 ___ 56 2020 ____ 42 1904 __________previous record was 54 (1938) Feb 08 ___ 62 2017 ____ 48 1965 Feb 09 ___ 63 1990 ____ 46 2005 Feb 10 ___ 61 1990,2001_ 43 1999 Feb 11 ___ 65 1960,2009 _50 1966 Feb 12 ___ 62 1999,2018 _ 45 1966 Feb 13 ___ 64 1951 ____ 47 1880 Feb 14 ___ 63 1946 ____ 50 1949 __________ 1949 was 59F, warmest since 1949 are 1990, 2011 58F Feb 15 ___ 73 1949 ____ 49 1984 ___________ 69 in 1954, warmest since that 62 in 2018 Feb 16 ___ 71 1954 ____ 44 2002 ___________ warmest since 1954 was 60 in 1976 (also 62 in 1921) Feb 17 ___ 68 2022 ____ 49 2022 ___________ also 67 in 1976 Feb 18 ___ 68 1981 ____ 48 1981 ____________ also 67 in 2011 Feb 19 ___ 66 1997 ____ 53 2017 ____________ also 65 in 2017 Feb 20 ___ 69 1930,39__48 1939 ____________ also 67 in 2018 Feb 21 ___ 78 2018 ____55 2018 _____________ also 68 in 1930, 67 in 1953 Feb 22 ___ 69 1997 ____ 46 1996 _____________also 66 in 1874, 1991 Feb 23 ___ 72 1874 ____ 55 1985 _____________ (warmest since 1874 was 70F in 1985, also 68F in 2022, 65F in 2017). Feb 24 ___ 75 1985 ____ 58 2017 _____________ also 65 in 1930, 1961 Feb 25 ___ 75 1930 ____ 51 1930 _____________ also 70 in 1976, 67 in 1985 Feb 26 ___ 65 1890 ____ 49 1976 _____________ warmest since 1890 was 62 in 1951, 1976 Feb 27 ___ 72 1997 ____ 49 1976 _____________ also 68 in 1880, 67 in 1976, 66 in 1971 Feb 28 ___ 67 1976 ____ 47 1903,10,2017 ________ warmest since 1976 was 62 in 1997 Feb 29 ___ 69 1880 ____ 47 1896, 2016 ______ warmest since 1880 was 67 in 1976 (61 in 2016) -- - - - - - - - - - - --

It's not quite as bad (for most of us) as my preliminary scoring, turns out it has been a while since I last had to apply the different system for the larger anomalies and I had one part of it backwards which was shaving points off the lower scores more than necessary. Now that I'm working my way through the final scores, most people are going to score about 100 points more than I first indicated. Also IAH came in much colder than it was looking a few days ago with big negatives on 30th and 31st, net result of which is everyone gained quite a few points on that forecast. You may still come to the same conclusion but you're not that far behind a few others and the higher scores didn't go up as much as the lower scores so the spread is a bit less extreme. I corrected the explanation offered for the 1 and 2 point scoring deduction zones to read correctly. Back to the scoring now ... it won't take that long as there's no annual scoring to add up. This is it. (LATER EDIT) _ Scoring is now complete, scroll back two posts above.

I think another unusual feature of Jan 2023 is how inactive the atmosphere was for a winter month. This is illustrated by the fact that Toronto managed to produce a top five month with a maximum monthly temperature of only 6 C which is near the bottom of the list of January extremes, only the really cold months have a lower value and more than two-thirds (including a lot of below normal Januaries) have a higher monthly extreme. It was almost an atmospheric dead zone over the region in general. It was similar here, day after day of almost no weather. I wonder if besides global warming we are seeing a phenomenon of global blanding; much is made of the potential for extreme weather and high variability in this era, but a lot of the time the weather seems to do almost nothing for days on end. It is becoming the main adversary of weather forums in many different regions, having so little significant weather. It actually makes the weather of the 1980s look exciting by comparison, and the 1970s hyper-active. I'd be interested if this is anyone else's take, and I realize a case can be made for the extreme weather paradigm, it's just not overly frequent.

+2.8 __ +3.2 __ +3.5 __ +2.5 __ +3.5 __ +1.7 __ -1.5 __ -1.5 __ -1.5 (possibly)

The 1932 record will likely fall as it would require a minimum of around 18F at midnight to preserve a tie, possibly lower as I estimated the mean max would remain close to value through 30th of 48.7F. However, if we consider the relative urban heat island magnitudes in 1932 and 2023, the differential may prove to be slightly less, meaning that in a list that is "u.h.i. adjusted" 1932 could remain ahead of 2023. It won't be quite the same record shattering that was done on several occasions for December. This is a table of the top 12 Decembers including ranks for Toronto, and it can be seen that 1982 began a series of record breakers (from 1891) that for NYC included 1984, 2001 and 2015, which added an incredible margin of 3.7 C or 6.7 F deg to the existing record (2015 vs 2001) and 4.7 C (8.5 F) for 2015 compared to the 1891 record first broken by 1982. For Toronto the existing record was (NYC's 12th place December) 1923, and this was only tied in 1982 and 1998, then broken in 2001 and eventually 2015 (a margin of 2.0 C). At both locations the old record was eclipsed by nine or ten other years (some of which never held the record) after 1982. January has had a different evolution but perhaps in the future will begin to break the 1932 record more frequently in the style of December and also February which has many recent contenders also. The different performance of various months in this recent climate warming era is an odd detail as some months have moved ahead more frequently and with a larger margin than other months. DECEMBER RECENT WARM MONTHS at NYC and TORONTO compared by ranks Rank _ Year __ Mean (C,F) ___ Tor rank, Tor mean 01 _____ 2015 ___ 10.44 (50.8) ______ 01 ________ 5.2 02 ____ 2001 ____ 6.72 (44.1) _______ 02 ________ 3.2 03t ____1984 ____ 6.56 (43.8) _______ 10 _________ 1.7 03t ____2021 ____ 6.56 (43.8) _______ 04 _________2.5 05 _____2006 ____ 6.44 (43.6) _______ 03 ________ 2.9 06 ____ 2011 _____ 6.28 (43.3) _______ 09 ________ 2.0 07 _____1998 _____ 6.22 (43.2) ______ t05 ________ 2.3 08 _____1982 _____ 6.00 (42.8) ______ t05 ________ 2.3 09 _____1990 _____ 5.89 (42.6) ______ 33 _________ 0.7 10 _____ 1891 _____ 5.72 (42.3) ______ t27 ________ 0.8 11 ______1994 _____ 5.67 (42.2) ______ 11 __________1.6 12 ______1923 _____ 5.56 (42.0) ______ t05 ________ 2.3 (for the top 12 NYC Decembers, all but 08 and 12 for Toronto are present in the list. The values missing for Toronto are 08 _ 2012 which was 13th for NYC 12 _ 1965 and 1881 tied, these ranked t20th and t28th for NYC

Liberty Bell and anyone else interested in pre-1869 NYC weather, some indication of weather patterns could be gained from reading the daily meteorological journal of Alexis Caswell in Providence RI (it extends from about 1831 to 1860). He was more or less one of the main founders of American meteorology through the Smithsonian Institution who have preserved his journals. You can read a bit about him at wikipedia, I noted that he was born on today's date in 1799 and died in January of 1877. I attempted to post a link to the weather journal. For some reason the software here will not accept the link (possibly because there's a google.ca domain?) ... anyway, try going through the wikipedia article as the link there works for me (it's at the bottom of the text identified as Smithsonian blah blah ...) I intended to set it at Jan 1857 because that month had some severe cold that was accompanied by strong northwest winds, Toronto fell a bit lower than his -14 F reading (to -22 F) but I would imagine NYC was in that ball park too. Also his three daily readings do not necessarily capture extremes and sometimes he made notes of those in the marginal comments. This is the link I have, perhaps if you block copy it and try it directly, it might work. http://www.books.google.ca/books?id=oYY_AAAAcAAJ&pg=PA143&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=3#v=onepage&q&f=false Possibly a U.S. based wikipedia user will get a different link to the journal. If anyone succeeds in opening it could you post the link that works? This link works for me as supplied but not as copied.

Don's work inspired me to check out the comparable "futility" and "severity" top winters for Toronto which has a longer period of data (1840-41 to present for winters). This is the full list, I left the middle values in but gave them a small print size so if you're really interested in the middle of the table, magnify away ... The ranks are based on combined rank order (from 01 to 183) for both DJF mean temp, and total winter snowfalls. Ranks are then added, and ties are broken in favor of most snowfall being more severe. Just to clarify, ranks for temperature run 01 mildest (2001-02 +1.30 C) to 183 coldest (1874-75 -8.57 C) and ranks for total snowfall run 01 least (45.9 cm or about 18" in 2011-12) to 183 most (313.7 cm or 123.5" in 1869-70, a lot of this fell in March 1870). Data are for downtown Toronto which has had a weather station at a parkland setting (on a university campus) that is not vastly different from Central Park in relation to the metropolis, except that there are fewer tree canopy issues as the campus has more isolated mature trees at some distance from one another. I have listed temperatures in my study both "raw" and adjusted for u.h.i., and could have adjusted these temperatures, but then the point of the table is to compare severity of actual winters for the people that experienced them at the time. The climate signal aspect of this would perhaps require a bit of an adjustment upwards for the older portions of the temperatures. Also the considerable urban heat island of Toronto probably has had a reducing effect on winter snowfall that I estimate might be 5 to 10 per cent, but most of the reason for generally low totals in recent decades is a shift in air mass frequency rather than urban heat island. Toronto snowfalls look heavy compared to NYC but it has to be kept in mind that considerable mixed falls involve rapid disappearance of parts of these totals, in a typical winter Toronto will see several periods of snow cover separated by intervals of bare ground. 1931-32 was probably close to "most futile" for running values to end of January but then began to pick up plenty of snowfall in Feb and Mar, while remaining mild through Feb and ending up 5th mildest. The winter of 1841-42 was another quite futile outcome as shown, and the pulse of about 90 years is interesting (1842, 1932, 2023) although not meant to displace climate change (or underwater volcanoes ) as cause of recent lack of severity. Unlike NYC, Toronto's snowfall trend in recent decades has just been a steady decline and there is no similar phenomenon to the recent all or nothing trend on the east coast. As you know, Toronto gets a lot of its snow from weather systems that sweep their warm sectors across NYC, although there are some storm tracks where both locations can score. On the other hand, Toronto's snowfall during periods of heavy snow at NYC is likely to be no better than low-average. For example, only small amounts of snow or zero snowfalls accompanied most of NYC's top ten storms. The more futile winters overlap basically because the storm track ran so far north that Toronto was also often in the milder sector. This past January will not threaten the lead of 1932 in that monthly ranking, in fact the most likely finish looks like 5th warmest. 2022-23 is placed in the list on the basis of a relatively mild Feb (-2.3) and a relatively modest 30 cm of snow from Feb 1 to end of winter. There has already been about 60 cm of snow in several events. Some ranks in this table could change (by one up or down) if Toronto's outcome is different from this projection. The winter could still finish higher than 10th as shown in the futility list. Some time in April I will make a note of any changes. This table has also been saved into the Toronto-NYC data study in the climate change section. TORONTO (downtown) SEVERITY LIST 1840-41 to 2022-23 (est) (Top values least severe, or most "futile" and bottom of table shows most severe values) Rank ____ Winter ___ Temp DJF (C) (rank) ___Total Winter Snow (cm) (rank) _ 01 _____2011-12 __ +0.77 (02) _____________ 45.9 (01) ____ total rank 03 _ 02 ____ 2015-16 __ +0.57 (03) _____________ 59.7 (04) ___ total rank 07 _ 03 ____ 1952-53 __ -0.37 (07) _____________ 46.8 (03) ___ total rank 10 _ 04 ____ 2001-02 __ +1.30 (01) _____________ 71.4 (09) ___ total rank 10 _ 05 ____ 1982-83 __ -0.50 (t08) ____________ 73.0 (10) ___ total rank 18 _ 06 ____ 1932-33 __ -1.10 (16) ______________ 65.3 (05) ___ total rank 21 _ 07 ____ 2016-17 __ +0.03 (06) _____________ 77.0 (15) ___ total rank 21 _ 08 ____ 2005-06 __ -1.00 (15) _____________ 70.4 (08) ___ total rank 23 _ 09 ____ 1936-37 __ -1.17 (18) ______________ 70.3 (07) ___ total rank 25 _ 10 ____ 2022-23 est-0.60 (10) ___________est90.0 (24) ___ total rank 34 _ 11 __ 1999-2000 ___ -1.27 (19) _____________ 82.8 (19) ___ total rank 38 _ 12 ____ 2006-07 __ -1.90 (33) _____________ 67.9 (06) ___ total rank 39 _ 13 ____ 1994-95 __ -1.70 (t27) _____________ 75.4 (12) ___ total rank 39 _ 14 ____ 1881-82 __ -1.70 (t27) _____________ 77.2 (16) ___ total rank 43 _ 15 ____ 2009-10 __ -2.47 (t43) ____________ 46.2 (02) ___ total rank 45 _ 16 ____ 1918-19 __ -1.33 (21) _______________ 93.0 (26)__ total rank 47 _ 17 ____ 1905-06 __ -2.13 (t38) _____________ 76.6 (13) ___ total rank 51 _ 18 ____ 1877-78 __ -2.10 (37) ______________ 76.7 (14) ___ total rank 51 _ 19 ____ 1841-42 __ -2.37 (42) ______________ 75.0 (11) ___ total rank 53 _ 20 ____ 1997-98 __ +0.50 (04) ____________ 115.6 (t49) __ total rank 53 _ 21 ____ 1988-89 __ -1.97 (34) _______________87.2 (21) __ total rank 55 _ 22 ____ 2020-21 __ -1.47 (t22) _____________100.5 (33) _ total rank 55 _ 23 ____ 1889-90 __ -0.87 (14) _____________ 112.3 (43) __ total rank 57 _ 24 ____ 1990-91 __ -1.30 (20) _____________ 104.2 (38) __ total rank 58 _ 25 ____ 1991-92 __ -1.73 (29) _______________96.4 (30) __ total rank 59 _ 26 ____ 1987-88 __ -2.00 (35) ______________ 92.4 (25) __ total rank 60 _ 27 ____ 1920-21 __ -1.53 (26) ______________ 109.0 (40) __ total rank 66 _ 28 ____ 1974-75 __ -0.50 (t08) _____________ 121.9 (59) __ total rank 67 _ 29 ____ 1847-48 __ -2.53 (t47) ______________ 88.6 (22) __ total rank 69 _ 30 ____ 2012-13 __ -0.63 (t11) _____________ 124.0 (60) __ total rank 71 _ 31 ____ 1912-13 __ -2.13 (t38) _____________ 100.9 (34) __ total rank 72 _ 32 ____ 1957-58 __ -2.93 (t57) ________________ 79.6 (18) __ total rank 75 _ 33 ____ 2017-18 __ -2.90 (t55) ______________ 95.2 (28)__ total rank 83 _ 34 ____ 1948-49 __ -1.13 (17) ______________ 128.3 (71) __ total rank 88 _ 35 ____ 1943-44 __ -2.57 (49) _____________ 110.0 (41) _ total rank 90 _ 36 ____ 1928-29 __ -3.37 (78) ______________ 85.7 (20) __ total rank 98 _ 37 ____ 1941-42 __ -3.33 (77) ______________ 89.6 (23) __ total rank 100 _ 38 ____ 1937-38 __ -3.53 (t85) _____________78.4 (17) __ total rank 102 _ 39 ____ 1927-28 __ -3.27 (73) ______________ 96.4 (29) __ total rank 102 _ 40 ____ 1968-69 __ -3.23 (72) ____________ 97.0 (31) __ total rank 103 _ 41 ____ 2003-04 __ -2.97 (62) ____________ 110.1 (42) __ total rank 104 _ 42 ____ 2019-20 __ -0.63 (t11) _____________144.5 (94) __ total rank 105 _ 43 ____ 1931-32 __ +0.47 (05) ____________ 149.3 (100) _ total rank 105 _ 44 ____ 1953-54 __ -1.47 (t22) _____________135.7 (85) _ total rank 107 _ 45 ____ 1972-73 __ -2.60 (t50) ____________ 114.5 (45) _ total rank 108 _ 46 ____ 2018-19 __ -2.47 (t43) ____________ 128.0 (70) _ total rank 113 _ 47 ____ 1858-59 __ -3.40 (t79) ____________ 104.9 (39) _ total rank 118 _ 48 ____ 1979-80 __ -3.00 (t63) ____________ 121.1 (t55) _ total rank 118 _ 49 ____ 1954-55 __ -2.90 (t55) ____________ 125.9 (64) _ total rank 119 _ 50 ____ 1891-92 __ -3.53 (t85) ____________ 102.9 (35) _ total rank 120 _ 51 ____ 1950-51 __ -2.33 (41) ______________134.2 (80) _ total rank 121 _ 52 ____ 1986-87 __ -1.77 (30) ______________146.7 (96) _ total rank 126 _ 53 ____ 1956-57 __ -2.60 (t50) ____________ 132.6 (t77) _ total rank 127 _ 54 ____ 1921-22 __ -3.30 (t74) _____________ 121.1 (t55) _ total rank 129 _ 55 ____ 2021-22 __ -2.47 (t43) _____________136.1 (86) _ total rank 129 _ 56 ____ 1989-90 __ -3.10 (t69) ____________ 126.4 (65) _ total rank 134 _ 57 ____ 1896-97 __ -3.87 (99) _____________ 103.1 (36) _ total rank 135 _ 58 ____ 1998-99 __ -0.73 (13) _____________162.2 (122) _ total rank 135 _ 59 ____ 1849-50 __ -3.17 (71) _____________ 127.5 (t66) __ total rank 137 _ 60 ____ 1980-81 __ -4.20 (111) _____________ 94.3 (27) __ total rank 138 _ 61 ____ 1857-58 __ -3.53 (t85) ____________ 119.7 (53) __ total rank 138 _ 62 ____ 1965-66 __ -2.53 (t47) ____________143.7 (93) __ total rank 140 _ 63 ____ 1985-86 __ -3.83 (t95) ___________ 115.0 (47) __ total rank 142 _ 64 ____ 1879-80 __ -1.83 (31) _____________ 156.1 (116) __ total rank 147 _ 65 ____ 2004-05 __ -3.03 (66) ____________ 139.4 (87) _ total rank 153 _ 66 ____ 1967-68 __ -4.07 (108) ____________ 116.9 (51) _ total rank 159 _ 67 ____ 1863-64 __ -3.73 (93) _____________ 127.5 (t66) _ total rank 159 _ 68 ____ 1996-97 __ -1.47 (t22) _____________174.4 (138) _ total rank 160 _ 69 ____ 1852-53 __ -3.70 (92) _____________ 127.8 (69) _ total rank 161 _ 70 ____ 1984-85 __ -2.67 (t53) ____________ 153.0 (108) _ total rank 161 _ 71 ____ 2010-11 __ -3.93 (t100) ____________ 124.3 (62) _ total rank 162 _ 72 ____ 1973-74 __ -3.43 (t81) _____________ 134.9 (82) _ total rank 163 _ 73 ____ 2008-09 __ -3.60 (t89) ____________ 130.1 (75) _ total rank 164 _ 74 ____ 1961-62 __ -4.27 (t117) _____________115.5 (48) _ total rank 165 _ 75 ____ 1939-40 __ -4.00 (107) ____________ 121.5 (58) _ total rank 165 _ 76 ____ 1897-98 __ -3.40 (t79) _____________140.7 (t88) _ total rank 167 _ 77 ____ 1930-31 __ -2.93 (t57) _____________ 153.4 (110) _ total rank 167 _ 78 ____ 1949-50 __ -1.50 (25) ______________ 177.6 (142) _ total rank 167 _ 79 ____ 1926-27 __ -4.43 (t122) ____________ 115.6 (t49) _ total rank 171 _ 80 ____ 1960-61 __ -3.83 (t95) _____________ 130.3 (76) _ total rank 171 _ 81 ____ 1963-64 __ -3.43 (83) _____________ 142.8 (t91) _ total rank 174 _ 82 ____ 1865-66 __ -4.73 (130) ____________ 114.8 (46) _ total rank 176 _ 83 ____ 1992-93 __ -2.87 (t53) _____________163.0 (124) _ total rank 177 _ 84 ____ 1951-52 __ -2.03 (36) ______________177.9 (143) _ total rank 179 _ 85 ____ 1850-51 __ -4.23 (t115) ____________ 127.5 (t66) _ total rank 181 _ 86 ____ 1969-70 __ -5.10 (t141) _____________ 114.4 (44) _ total rank 185 _ 87 ____ 2000-01 __ -2.93 (t57) _____________ 165.6 (128) _ total rank 185 _ 88 ____ 1962-63 __ -5.70 (t154) ____________ 99.2 (32) _ total rank 186 _ 89 ____ 2014-15 __ -5.50 (t149) ____________ 104.1 (37) _ total rank 186 _ 90 ____ 1902-03 __ -4.23 (t115) ____________ 129.5 (73) _ total rank 188 _ 91 ____ 1975-76 __ -2.93 (t57) _____________ 170.7 (132) _ total rank 189 _ 92 ____ 1995-96 __ -3.93 (t100) ____________142.8 (t91) _ total rank 191 _ 93 ____ 1971-72 __ -2.50 (46) ______________ 179.8 (145) _ total rank 191 _ 94 ____ 1846-47 __ -4.67 (129) _____________ 125.5 (63) _ total rank 192 _ 95 ____ 1940-41 __ -3.67 (91) ______________ 149.4 (101) _ total rank 192 _ 96 ____ 1934-35 __ -5.10 (t141) _____________ 121.4 (57) _ total rank 198 _ 97 ____ 1924-25 __ -4.53 (t125) ____________ 129.8 (74) _ total rank 199 _ 98 ____ 1929-30 __ -3.93 (t100) ____________ 148.9 (99) _ total rank 199 _ 99 ____ 2007-08 __ -1.87 (32) ______________209.7 (t168) _ total rank 200 _100 ____ 1843-44 __ -3.60 (t89) ____________ 154.2 (112) _ total rank 201 _101 ____ 1844-45 __ -2.93 (t57) ____________ 178.4 (144) _ total rank 201 _102 ____ 1893-94 __ -4.43 (t122) ___________ 134.7 (81) _ total rank 203 _103 ____ 1966-67 __ -3.10 (t69) ______________172.5 (134) _ total rank 203 _104 ____ 1901-02 __ -4.60 (t127) ____________ 131.8 (77) _ total rank 204 _105 ____ 1946-47 __ -3.30 (t74) ______________171.9 (133) _ total rank 207 _106 ____ 1908-09 __ -2.60 (t50) _____________ 191.8 (157) _ total rank 207 _107 ____ 1848-49 __ -4.50 (t149) ____________ 124.2 (61) _ total rank 210 _108 ____ 1959-60 __ -2.20 (40) ______________ 211.0 (170) _ total rank 210 _109 ____ 1955-56 __ -3.30 (t74) ______________173.8 (137) _ total rank 211 _110 ____ 1871-72 __ -5.93 (160) _____________ 119.1 (52) _ total rank 212 _111 ____ 1983-84 __ -3.43 (t81) _____________ 167.0 (131) _ total rank 212 _112 ____ 1923-24 __ -3.00 (t63) _____________ 182.0 (150) _ total rank 213 _113 ____ 1945-46 __ -4.27 (t117) _____________ 147.2 (97) _ total rank 214 _114 ____ 1862-63 __ -3.00 (t63) _____________ 182.8 (151) _ total rank 214 _115 ____ 1906-07 __ -5.97 (t161) ____________ 120.8 (54) _ total rank 215 _116 ____ 1914-15 __ -3.83 (t95) ______________158.0 (120) _ total rank 215 _117 ____ 1894-95 __ -5.07 (t139) ____________ 132.6 (t77) _ total rank 216 _118 ____ 1840-41 __ -4.97 (t134) ____________ 135.0 (83) _ total rank 217 _119 ____ 1888-89 __ -4.10 (109) _____________ 153.3 (109) _ total rank 218 _120 ____ 1913-14 __ -3.97 (t104) ____________ 157.9 (119) _ total rank 223 _121 ____ 2002-03 __ -3.93 (t100) ___________ 162.5 (123) _ total rank 223 _122 ____ 1890-91 __ -4.20 (t111) _____________ 155.0 (113) _ total rank 224 _123 ____ 1915-16 __ -3.57 (88) ______________ 174.5 (139) _ total rank 227 _124 ____ 1909-10 __ -4.37 (121) _____________ 152.9 (107) _ total rank 228 _125 ____ 1964-65 __ -3.47 (84) _____________ 181.9 (149) _ total rank 233 _126 ____ 1887-88 __ -5.97 (163) ____________ 128.9 (72) _ total rank 235 _127 ____ 1916-17 __ -5.43 (t147) ____________ 140.7 (t88) _ total rank 235 _128 ____ 1910-11 __ -4.33 (120) _____________ 155.8 (115) _ total rank 235 _129 ____ 1938-39 __ -3.07 (t67) _____________ 209.7 (t168) _ total rank 235 _130 ____ 1947-48 __ -5.00 (t136) ____________ 149.7 (103) _ total rank 239 _131 __1899-1900 __ -3.97 (t104) ____________ 173.6 (136) _ total rank 240 _132 ____ 1978-79 __ -5.23 (144) _____________ 148.0 (98) _ total rank 242 _133 ____ 1875-76 __ -3.07 (t67) ______________249.0 (177) _ total rank 244 _134 ____ 1853-54 __ -5.73 (156) _____________ 142.3 (90) _ total rank 246 _135 ____ 1981-82 __ -4.53 (t125) ____________ 158.9 (121) _ total rank 246 _136 ____ 1925-26 __ -4.43 (t122) ____________ 163.1 (125) _ total rank 247 _137 ____ 2013-14 __ -5.33 (145) _____________ 151.6 (104) _ total rank 249 _138 ____ 1898-99 __ -5.07 (t139) ____________ 155.2 (114) _ total rank 253 _139 ____ 1976-77 __ -5.97 (t161) _____________ 145.4 (95) _ total rank 256 _140 ____ 1993-94 __ -5.53 (151) _____________ 152.4 (106) _ total rank 257 _141 ____ 1895-96 __ -4.20 (t111) ____________ 180.4 (146) _ total rank 257 _142 ____ 1904-05 __ -7.27 (175) _____________ 135.6 (84) _ total rank 259 _143 ____ 1900-01 __ -4.97 (t134) ____________ 164.1 (127) _ total rank 261 _144 ____ 1970-71 __ -4.20 (t111) _____________ 187.8 (156) _ total rank 267 _145 ____ 1868-69 __ -3.83 (t95) _____________ 220.5 (175) _ total rank 270 _146 ____ 1861-62 __ -4.13 (110) ______________ 201.2 (164) _ total rank 274 _147 ____ 1933-34 __ -6.63 (171) _____________ 152.0 (105) _ total rank 276 _148 ____ 1873-74 __ -3.97 (t104) ___________ 213.1 (172) _ total rank 276 _149 ____ 1869-70 __ -3.80 (94) ______________ 313.7 (183) _ total rank 277 _150 ____ 1878-79 __ -6.47 (167) _____________ 153.6 (111) _ total rank 278 _151 ____ 1880-81 __ -7.40 (176) ______________ 151.4 (103) _ total rank 279 _152 ____ 1907-08 __ -4.27 (t117) _____________ 198.6 (162) _ total rank 279 _153 ____ 1958-59 __ -5.57 (152) ____________ 165.8 (129) _ total rank 281 _154 ____ 1885-86 __ -5.90 (t158) _____________ 163.4 (126) _ total rank 284 _155 ____ 1977-78 __ -5.17 (143) ______________ 177.3 (141) _ total rank 284 _156 ____ 1942-43 __ -4.80 (132) _____________ 184.4 (154) _ total rank 286 _157 ____ 1845-46 __ -5.87 (157) ______________166.0 (130) _ total rank 287 _158 ____ 1859-60 __ -5.70 (155) _____________ 173.3 (135) _ total rank 290 _159 ____ 1919-20 __ -7.47 (177) ______________ 156.8 (t117) _ total rank 294 _160 ____ 1842-43 __ -4.87 (133) _____________ 200.0 (163) _ total rank 296 _161 ____ 1903-04 __ -8.13 (182) _____________ 156.8 (t117) _ total rank 299 _162 ____ 1860-61 __ -5.00 (t136) ____________ 203.6 (165) _ total rank 301 _163 ____ 1922-23 __ -5.00 (t136) ____________ 204.9 (166) _ total rank 302 _ from here to end, the rank for "most severe" is also shown at end of each entry __ _164 ____ 1935-36 __ -6.20 (164) _____________ 175.2 (140) _ total rank 304 __ 20 _165 ____ 1944-45 __ -5.40 (146) _____________ 193.3 (158) _ total rank 304 __ 19 _166 ____ 1911-12 __ -5.43 (t147) _____________ 194.0 (t159) _ total rank 306 __ 18 _167 ____ 1866-67 __ -4.60 (t127) ____________ 288.8 (181) _ total rank 308 ___ 17 _168 ____ 1870-71 __ -4.77 (131) ______________ 253.7 (179) _ total rank 310 ___ 16 _169 ____ 1883-84 __ -5.90 (t158) ____________ 194.0 (t159) _ total rank 317 ___ 15 _170 ____ 1867-68 __ -7.07 (t173) _____________ 181.4 (147) _ total rank 320 ___ 14 _171 ____ 1917-18 __ -7.77 (178) _______________ 181.5 (148) _ total rank 326 ___ 13 _172 ____ 1864-65 __ -5.67 (153) ______________ 213.6 (173) _ total rank 326 __ 12 _173 ____ 1892-93 __ -7.07 (t173) ______________ 186.5 (155) _ total rank 328 __ 11 _174 ____ 1855-56 __ -7.80 (179) ______________ 183.0 (152) _ total rank 331 ___ 10 _175 ____ 1884-85 __ -7.97 (180) ______________ 183.7 (153) _ total rank 333 ___ 09 _176 ____ 1886-87 __ -6.70 (172) ______________ 194.7 (161) _ total rank 333 ___ 08 _177 ____ 1876-77 __ -6.37 (166) _____________ 206.0 (167) _ total rank 333 ___ 07 _178 ____ 1856-57 __ -6.60 (170) _____________ 212.4 (171) _ total rank 341 ____ 06 _179 ____ 1882-83 __ -6.30 (165) _____________ 234.9 (176) _ total rank 341 ___ 05 _180 ____ 1854-55 __ -6.50 (168) _____________ 213.7 (174) _ total rank 342 ___ 04 _181 ____ 1851-52 __ -6.53 (169) ______________249.3 (178) _ total rank 347 ___ 03 _182 ____ 1874-75 __ -8.57 (183) ______________254.0 (180) _ total rank 363 ___ 02 _183 ____ 1872-73 __ -8.00 (181) _____________ 289.8 (182) __ total rank 363 ___ 01

The NMP is moving rapidly west at high latitudes (around 86 N) and is now north of Wrangel Island in northeast Siberia. In the 1990s it was back around the northwest arctic islands of Canada. (when first reliably located in 1840, it was on the northern Canadian mainland; it drifted NNW rather slowly to 1950 and then began to accelerate gradually) ... There is no longer any northerly component to its forward motion, after a period of WNW movement it became due west and begins to look more like WSW in coming years, moving slowly back to lower latitudes. Also the magnetic field is slowly weakening. But I don't think there is any expert consensus on it "flipping" if by that you mean reversing polarity. That could happen in the distant future but I wouldn't expect it in the 21st century. The NMP could end up somewhere around the northern part of west Siberia or even Novaya Zemlya or Franz Josef Land, within a few decades. As significant as the change in magnetic north has already been, that would really add to the displacement.

Don, is there any chance you could show ranks 11-20 in the winter futility rank table?

Predict the temperature anomalies in F deg relative to 1991-2020 normals. DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline Wed Feb 1st, 06z

Final scoring for January 2023 Scores are based on the confirmed end of month values posted two posts back in the thread and in the scoring tables. A reminder, when anomalies stray outside the bounds of -5 to +5 (in this case above +5 for five locations, and below -5 for DEN) then differentials are reduced in that zone to 1 point per 0.1 F error instead of the usual 2 pt per 0.1 F. Your error counts as usual to a reflection point below 5.0 then accumulates further at 50%, an equal "reflection zone" exists between 5.0 (or -5.0) and some smaller anomaly value that is equal to 5.0 minus the large anomaly's over-run (example, for an outcome of +7.0 the reflection zone of smaller deductions is 3.0 to 5.0, so full deductions are applied only between 0.0 and 3.0 -- this also maintains the principle that all forecasts on the correct side of normal will score some points). Where some of the anomalies were large enough the max 60 scoring rule is activated but it appears that for most locations at least one raw score will be above 60 so we are all stuck with our raw scores in most cases, except PHX (-2.9, top raw score 56), NYC (+9.8, top raw score 52) and DEN (-6.7, top raw score 08). Those three require the adjusted max 60 scoring. (Note also if anomalies exceed 10 as happened back in March 2012 and February 2015 among others, then scores are based on the fraction of the anomaly represented by each forecast, although in that situation with the forecasts we have, scoring would go to max 60 anyway ... if an anomaly was exactly 10.0, then scores would equal forecasts with correct signs, decimals removed, example a forecast of +6.2 against an outcome of +10.0 would score 62). FYI, scoring is presented in (a) raw score format and (b) adjusted scores for max-60 rule. (a) Raw scores (not rank ordered, following table of forecasts) FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTALS __ estimated anoms _____+7.7 _+9.8 _+7.9 _____ +7.1 _+6.9 _+4.2 ____ _ ___ __ -6.7_-2.9_+0.7 RJay ______________________73 _ 52 _ 71 __ 196 __ 79 _ 71 _ 58 __ 208 __ 404 __ 00 _ 22 _ 86 __ 108 ___ 512 hudsonvalley21 ___________61 _ 42 _ 63 __ 166 ___ 74 _ 70 _ 64 __ 208 __ 374 __ 00 _ 32 _ 86 __ 118 ___ 492 DonSutherland1 __________ 68 _ 48 _ 66 __ 182 ___ 79 _ 71 _ 82 __232 __ 414 __00 _ 38 _ 74 __ 112 ___ 526 wxallannj _________________ 55 _ 37 _ 59 __ 151 ___ 76 _ 50 _ 74 __ 200 __ 351 __ 00 _ 52 _ 58 __ 110 ___ 461 Tom ______________________ 54 _ 31 _ 50 __ 135 ___ 60 _ 24 _ 36 __ 120 __ 255 __ 00 _ 32 _ 90 __ 122 ___ 377 BKViking _________________ 50 _ 32 _ 51 __ 133 ___ 40 _ 18 _ 28 __ 086 __ 222 __ 00 _ 38 _ 94 __ 132 ___ 354 ___ Consensus ____________50 _ 32 _ 51 __ 133 ___ 60 _ 32 _ 58 __ 150 __ 283 __ 00 _ 32 _ 98 __ 130 ___ 413 RodneyS _________________ 49 _ 37 _ 56 __ 142 ___ 66 _ 32 _ 72 __ 170 __ 312 __ 06 _ 56 _ 92 __ 148 ___ 460 wxdude64 ________________44 _ 25 _ 46 __ 115 ___ 16 _ 26 _ 40 __ 082 __ 197 __ 08 _ 48 _ 82 __ 138 ___ 335 Roger Smith ______________44 _ 22 _ 46 __ 112 ___ 30 _ 56 _ 98 __ 184 __ 296 __ 00 _ 00 _ 84 __ 084 ___ 380 so_whats_happening _____42 _ 18 _ 38 __ 098 ___ 42 _ 18 _ 50 __ 110 ___ 208 __ 00 _ 28 _ 98 __ 126 ___ 334 Scotty Lightning _________ 20 _ 12 _ 10 __ 042 ___ 10 _ 20 _ 48 __ 078 ___ 120 __ 00 _ 22 _ 96 __ 118 ___ 238 ___ Normal _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___00 _ 00 _ 18 __ 018 ___ 018 __ 00 _ 42 _ 86 __ 128 ___ 146 ------------------------------------------ Persistence _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 __ 00 _ 02 _ 52 __ 054 __ 070 __ 21 _ 48 _ 22 __ 091 ___ 161 (b) Adjusted scores (NYC, DEN, PHX required max 60) Minimum progression of scores in rank order would be 60, 54, 48 etc ... 12, 06, 00 for eleven forecasts. Scores adjusted have the ^ symbol. Raw scores that are higher than progression levels are kept and there would be no ^ symbol. This was the case for the lower half of PHX scores. The same applies to zero scores that do not achieve a boost by rank. Normal and consensus score from the scale established. Your rank will guarantee at least the score in the progression, but if your forecast is within 0.1 of a forecast at a higher scoring level, your progression score is boosted by four, and if different by 0.2, your progression score is boosted by two. Ties occupy all the progression levels used up, so those corrections are applied to the next level where applicable. FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTALS __ estimated anoms _____ +7.7_+9.8_ +7.9 _______+7.1 _+6.9_+4.1 ____ _ ___ __ -6.7 _-2.9_+0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ 68 _ 54^_ 66 __ 188 ___ 79 _ 71 _ 82 __232 __ 420 __18^_ 42^_ 74 __ 134 ___ 554 RJay ______________________73 _ 60^_ 71 __ 204 __ 79 _ 71 _ 58 __ 208 __ 412 __ 14^_ 20 _ 86 __ 120 ___ 532 hudsonvalley21 ___________61 _ 48^_ 63 __ 172 ___ 74 _ 70 _ 64 __ 208 __ 380 __ 30^_ 32 _ 86 __ 148 ___ 528 RodneyS _________________ 49 _ 42^_ 56 __ 147 ___ 66 _ 32 _ 72 __ 170 __ 317 __ 58^_ 60^_ 92 __210 ___ 527 wxallannj _________________ 55 _ 42^_ 59 __ 156 ___ 76 _ 50 _ 74 __ 200 __ 356 __30^_ 56^_ 58 __ 144 ___ 500 ___ Consensus ____________50 _ 32 _ 51 __ 133 ___ 60 _ 32 _ 58 __ 150 __ 283 __ 30^_ 32 _ 98 __ 160 ___ 443 Tom ______________________ 54 _ 31 _ 50 __ 135 ___ 60 _ 24 _ 36 __ 120 __ 255 __ 42^_ 32 _ 90 __ 164 ___ 419 BKViking _________________ 50 _ 32 _ 51 __ 133 ___ 40 _ 18 _ 28 __ 086 __ 219 __ 40^_ 42^_ 94 __ 176 ___ 395 wxdude64 ________________44 _ 25 _ 46 __ 115 ___ 16 _ 26 _ 40 __ 082 __ 197 __ 60^_ 50^_ 82 __ 192 ___ 389 Roger Smith ______________44 _ 22 _ 46 __ 112 ___ 30 _ 56 _ 98 __ 184 __ 296 __ 00 _ 00 _ 84 __ 084 ___ 380 so_whats_happening _____42 _ 18 _ 38 __ 098 ___ 42 _ 18 _ 50 __ 110 __ 208 ___ 06^_ 28 _ 98 __ 132 ___ 340 Scotty Lightning _________ 20 _ 12 _ 10 __ 042 ___ 10 _ 20 _ 48 __ 078 __ 120 __ 48^ _ 22 _ 96 __ 166 ___ 286 ___ Normal _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 ___00 _ 00 _ 18 __ 018 __ 018 __ 50^_ 44^_ 86 __ 180 ___ 198 ------------------------------------------ ___ Persistence ___________00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 __ 00 _ 02 _ 52 __ 054 __ 070 __ 70 _ 50 _ 22 __ 142 ____ 212 EXTREME FORECAST REPORT For DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL and IAH, warmest forecasts take high scores, which will mean RJay takes 5 wins (all above except IAH), DonSutherland1 shares 2 of those (ORD, ATL), and Roger Smith wins IAH. For DEN and PHX, coldest forecasts take high scores. That would give wxdude64 (DEN) and RodneyS (PHX) wins for those locations. For SEA, the outcome is close to consensus and this one does not qualify for an extreme forecast. RJay ________________________________ 5-0 DonS ________________________________ 2-0 Roger Smith, wxdude64, RodneyS __ 1-0 =========================================== (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RJay ______________________+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +5.0 __ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________+3.8 _ +4.0 _ +4.2 __ +4.5 _ +3.9 _ +2.3 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+4.5 _ +4.6 _ +4.5 __ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.2 ___ +1.8 _ +0.2 _ +2.0 wxallannj _________________+3.2 _ +3.5 _ +3.8 __ +4.7 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 ___ +1.5 _--0.5 _ +2.8 Tom ______________________+3.1 _ +2.9 _ +2.9 __ +3.1 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ____ +0.9 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 BKViking _________________+2.7 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +2.0 _ +0.9 _ +0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +0.2 _ +0.4 ___ Consensus ____________+2.7 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +3.1 _ +1.6 _ +2.0 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.8 RodneyS _________________+2.6 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +3.7 _ +1.6 _ +2.7 ___--0.3 _ --0.7 _ +0.3 wxdude64 ________________+2.2 _ +2.3 _ +2.5 __ +0.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 ___--0.4 _--0.3 _ +1.6 Roger Smith ______________+2.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +2.8 _ +4.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 so_whats_happening _____+2.1 _ +1.6 __ +1.9 __ +2.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.6 ___ +2.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.8 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ Normal _________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ===========================================

Has to be said though, the maps currently being displayed for early February on the GFS run are only a turn of the dial away from being good wintry outcomes, the air is cold enough over the Lakes and Quebec, and the storm track is approximately right. I can see that verbatim the various lows are mixing or close calls but you don't want perfection from the GFS at 10-15 days you just want a hint of the good stuff. And I can't recall seeing the 474 dm thickness contour over Quebec as is shown at end of the run, so that may be a bit extreme but there is certainly a slug of subzero air heading for the interior northeast towards the end of the GFS run, and that cannot be seen as a bad thing if you want eventual snowstorms on the coast. So I am cautiously optimistic about what's ahead for February. Think folks are correct in assuming the late next week storm is a miss to the north however. The change will come around Feb 1-4.

I don't suppose 1915-16 is going to sneak onto the futility top ten list, as Dec 1915 was rather average and had 8" of snow, but Jan 1916 was quite mild and turned record warm near the end. Here's a log of its record values and what happened to them, with one note added for Jan 24, 1967 ... Temp __ Date __ Status _ repl ______ If broken __ eventual record ___ significant other temps _61F ____ Jan 22 ___eventual record later tied by 1959 .. (1906 3rd (60F), 1986 4th (59F), 1973 5th (58F), 1957 6th (57F), 1967 7th (56F), 1932 8th (54F) _____ (note also 1967 Jan 24 was 68F) Temp _ Date _ Status _ replaced ___ If broken _ eventual record _ significant other temps _55F ____ Jan 25 ___ 1909 (52F) _________ 1938 (56F) __ 1967 (60F) ________ 2010 (57F). _60F ____ Jan 26 ___ 1913 (56F) _________ 1950 (72F) __ 1950 (72F) ___ 1916 second warmest __ 1990 (59F). _69F ____ Jan 27 ___eventual record .. (second warmest 1974 (66F), third warmest 2002 (62F)). (repl 53F 1880). _66F ____ Jan 28 ___eventual record .. (second warmest 1880 (65F) third warmest 1947, 2002 (60F). _63F ____ Jan 31 ___eventual record tied by 1947 .. (third warmest 1913, 2013 (61F), fifth 1974 (60F)). _60F ____ Feb 1 ___ 1877 (53F) _________ 1988 (62F) __ 1989 (67F) __ 1916 fourth warmest ___ 2012 (62F). ____________________ (this was an excerpt from my historical weather thread in the climate change forum .. there are similar logs available for all years at NYC) ______________________ That must have been quite a shocker to the residents of New York in 1916, although ... There was almost similar warmth around Jan 21-24 of 1906, several records set in Jan 1907, 1909 and 1913 also. All of which came in a decade preceding the phenomenal cold winter of 1917-18. In the midst of all the mild winters, Jan 1912 and 1914 produced some record cold. ... ... I included 1967 in the 1916 listing since one of its records ended up broken in 1967, on the 24th (not a record in 1916) it was 68F in 1967. This was a warm spell ahead of the infamous "Chicago Blizzard" of Jan 26-27 of 1967. At that time I was a senior in high school in southern Ontario. We were also in the warm sector of that storm and hit 60F on Jan 25 after a reading near 55F on the 23rd. However the storm was a double wave where the second portion ran a bit further south and changed our warm sector rain to sleet then heavy snow with thunder as I recall, on 26th into 27th. We ended up with about half the snow they got in Chicago and an earlier record high in the package. The temperatures then oscillated one more time, and settled into a very cold February which I believe was quite good for snow in NYC, it was mostly clear and cold further north with a bit of snow to top up the falls on 26th and another 7" fall before the final plunge into the deep freeze. Hopefully something like that could lie ahead this year too, although I suspect it won't be this dramatic or long-lasting. By the way in Feb and Mar 1916 there was some significant cold and snow too. That early spring pattern didn't last much longer than Feb 1st.

The value of 8.6" matches Mar 5, 1981. Not qualified to say which events were surprises, as I never lived in the region (visited relatives in NJ a few times). I do recall quite a few of those storms as I was watching the weather from home base in southern Ontario and the wNY TV stations would always mention snowfalls downstate. The one in late Dec 1984 I recall because I noticed how odd that was to have snow followed immediately by a very warm spell setting records. I will add 1991-92 to that list since you're interested, should be there fairly soon (I am not in the right part of the building to find the data on another device). The 1980s were also a bit of a dead zone for heavy snowfalls in Ontario, in fact maybe worse, we missed most of the ones listed and didn't get as much compensatory cutter snow because the cutters cut hard most of the time. We did however get a monster 22" snowfall from Dec 8-10 1992, that one just kept going for about 36 hours. We got all that severe cold in 1980-81 without more than a couple of inches of snow each time, similar to NYC. Totally missed Feb83. Had a big snowstorm on Feb 28, 1984 that apparently you took as a warm sector. Missed most of the 1987 to 1989 snowfalls listed, such as they were. Those were very dry winters with just bits of frozen snow from small events. I wouldn't say either that Toronto ever returned to old-fashioned snowfall amounts the way NYC did in the 21st century, the decline that began around the 1950s just kept digging in progressively, the old 19th century average of 70" has been reduced to maybe 40" nowadays. Toronto is not in a snow drought this winter however, they had several 2-4" falls in the past six weeks, each of which melted off quickly. From a log of historic NYC temperatures that I compared to Toronto, I found that in January, all of the top ten for Toronto matched up with some members of the top twenty at NYC, the order is a bit random but within the NYC top twenty I think only Jan 1870 falls below the top quartile for Toronto and is still above the median despite there being a very feeble urban heat island for Toronto in 1870 (that became the snowiest winter for Toronto, March was especially heavy).

Don, where was 1949-1950 on that futility index? I have a feeling it may boot 2015-16 off the list in coming days. I think some older winters might not show very well because they ran up some inconsequential snowfalls between mild spells and didn't have the full benefit of the modern urban heat island, such as 1905-06 and 1912-13, 1915-16. Those must have seemed quite mild at the time. Also 1889-1890 has a lot of significant warm days throughout the winter, not sure how much snow might have fallen between those events but the winter set quite a few records which later were broken, as well as retaining a couple to the present time. Also that was a very mild winter as far north as Toronto. A really dismal summer followed it.

Spotted that on edit, check it out, you were correct. Also found one other in late Feb 1991 and added some near misses to the list.