jaxjagman

Not a great looking pattern upcoming,its still winter right now tho.Control looks about about like what the GFS looks like in the long range today You almost hit it,poor theta with some K-Index and some weak showalter could get some elevated thunder,still looks like a clippper like system behind it that will spit some flakes at us Wednesday,but it dont look as strong today

All kinds other drivers to look at ,certainly you want a CE.Ninas just like Nino dont always work the same.The IOD, would seem to be right now as a starting point.In the strongest three-+IOD events, the ENSO has always crashed from "OND"the year of the strong IOD event years into the following tri-monthly year "OND" 1995 -2.0...."OND" OF 1994 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +1.0,the following year "OND" was -1,0 1998 -3.9 "OND" OF 1997 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +2.4 the following year "OND" was -1.5 2007 -2.4 "OND" OF 2006 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +0.9 the following year "OND" was -1.5 More study needs/ seems to be needed. The most negative the IOD has been since 1982 happened in 2016 coming off the strongest Nino that ever developed into winter of 2015 that went into a LaNina in winter of 2016,this broke the snow dome here with some parts getting close to if not a foot of snow from one storm.. ENSO can be quite different.Just look at the maps 2010-2011, this was in a resurgent Nina time that collapsed briefly into the sping/summer 2011,But the winter of 2010 was cold but not so in the 2011 winter

APEC Update

Finally updated

Wish they'd update the Pentad,no update in almost two weeks it seems like Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 17 February 2020 • Enhanced convection over the Western Pacific amplified over the past week, becoming the more dominant center of action in the tropics. Constructive interference from a Kelvin wave moving eastward out of the Indian Ocean aided in this strengthening. Westward propagating Rossby waves and tropical cyclone activity has led to a stall in the eastward propagation of the convective envelope. • Dynamical model guidance indicates that this enhanced convection is likely to decay over the next week, but possibly continue eastward propagation with the weakened signal. The ECMWF and GEFS guidance show differing solutions on the RMM index as we move into week-2; however, both signals are fairly unorganized, diminishing confidence in forecasts for any strong renewed signal for the MJO toward the end of the month. • Growing anomalous low-level westerly winds along the equator in the western Pacific is starting to show impacts on the upper-oceanic heat content anomalies. This could have further implications for the El Niño state if the downwelling continues, increasing the available warm water at depth across the basin.

Yeah i mentioned this last night in the winter thread with the through going through Korea,this is the time frame you are showing but we'll have to see how the synoptics work out upcoming

Seemingly,untill the NWS inspects it.Lawrence Co got its 2nd tornado in a week.The first one was a EF-1 that hit downtown Lawrenceburg,luckily that was during the evening or that could have been much worse.Last night one hit towards 5-points.Nashvilles radar seemingly went down as the line got close to us.More than likely as the squall line got to the office on Old Hickory Rd the radar went down for a short time,so there was no alert from this.Luckily no injuries that i'm aware of. https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/ema-lawrence-county-hit-again-with-straight-line-winds-possible-tornado/

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0051 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 552 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Areas affected...Portions of the TN & OH Valleys Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 122251Z - 130451Z Summary...A band of heavy rainfall is expected to move across central portions of TN and KY. Hourly rain totals to 1" and local amounts of 2" are expected. Discussion...A developing atmospheric river extending from the Mid-South towards the Ohio River Valley along with increased low level moisture convergence/frontogenesis has led to a band of heavy rainfall producing hourly rain totals to 1" per KY mesonet observations. This band is progressive, though it is moving over and into an area with two week precipitation at 200-300% of average, more to the south across northern AL, which has led to saturated soils. Precipitable water values of 1-1.3" lie here per GPS values. Inflow at 850 hPa is south-southwest at 55-80 knots per VAD wind profiles. MU CAPE is negligible per SPC mesoanalyses. The best guess is that increasing moisture convergence/ frontogenesis has played the main role in hourly rain totals approaching the precipitable water value. The 18z HREF probabilities of 0.5"+ per hour increase to likely as the band moves eastward across central KY and Middle TN with a small percent chance of 1" an hour. KY mesonet obs suggest the HREF probability guidance, as well as WSR 88D hourly rainfall totals, are underperforming here. Local amounts of 2" are possible before the line accelerates as it reaches into eastern KY and eastern TN, which could cause issues over saturated soils and area coal fields. Roth

Jamstec seasonals has a update or upgrade one. Be intersting to see how the ocean does.It shows the SST's cooling into the summer but getting warmer into fall once again SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system (Doi et al. 2017). This system is a upgrade version of the SINTEX-F2 ystem in terms of the ocean initialization. In this system, OGCM SSTs are strongly nudged toward the observations in the coupled run continuously from January 1982, which is similar to the simple SST-nudging scheme used in the F2-system. In addition, 3DVAR correction is conducted every 1st day of each month using subsurface ocean temperature and salinity observation. The set of in situ observations consists of all types of ocean profiling instruments that provide temperature and salinity (when available) from the expandable bathythermographs (XBTs), mooring buoys, sea stations, Argo floats, etc. The details of the 3DVAR scheme used here such as formulation and specification of observation and background error covariances are shown in Storto et al. (2014) You can read all the new updates here

Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 February 2020 • A pair of slow-moving envelopes of enhanced convection exist in the global tropics. The first is presently over the Western Indian Ocean, while the second is over the Maritime Continent. • Model guidance disagrees on which of these will come to dominate, with the GEFS emphasizing the latter center of action, while the ECMWF splits the difference and maintains both features. • Given this complicated perspective, extratropical circulation responses to the MJO are difficult to anticipate at this time. • A noteworthy possibility exists for anomalous low-level westerly winds east of New Guinea associated with the easternmost envelope of enhanced convection to potentially trigger a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. This would help to reinforce the volume of warm water available below the surface in the Pacific and possibly fuel an El Niño event.

Impressive Huntsville ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MDQ LAT= 34.87 LON= -86.55 ELE= 755 18Z FEB09 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 18Z 09-FEB 13.4 551 134 MON 00Z 10-FEB 0.00 11.3 554 135 MON 06Z 10-FEB 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 9.2 556 135 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.14 0.11 0.00 0.16 8.1 557 135 MON 18Z 10-FEB 0.74 0.53 0.00 0.89 12.1 560 136 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 0.99 0.33 0.00 1.88 14.3 562 138 TUE 06Z 11-FEB 0.68 0.09 0.00 2.56 14.9 563 137 TUE 12Z 11-FEB 1.37 0.14 0.00 3.93 13.6 564 137 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 0.48 0.02 0.00 4.41 14.0 559 135 WED 00Z 12-FEB 0.01 0.00 0.00 4.42 11.5 558 135 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.10 0.00 0.00 4.53 6.8 558 134 WED 12Z 12-FEB 0.11 0.00 0.00 4.63 7.8 560 135 WED 18Z 12-FEB 0.05 0.00 0.00 4.68 14.4 564 137 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.03 0.01 0.00 4.71 18.3 567 139 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.02 0.01 0.00 4.73 19.0 567 139 THU 12Z 13-FEB 1.17 0.11 0.00 5.90 11.0 561 136 Cha ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 18Z FEB09 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 18Z 09-FEB 10.0 549 133 MON 00Z 10-FEB 0.00 7.6 553 134 MON 06Z 10-FEB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.4 554 134 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.06 6.1 556 134 MON 18Z 10-FEB 0.46 0.17 0.00 0.52 9.6 558 135 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 0.79 0.41 0.00 1.31 11.4 560 137 TUE 06Z 11-FEB 0.93 0.10 0.00 2.24 13.2 562 137 TUE 12Z 11-FEB 1.68 0.15 0.00 3.92 14.0 562 137 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 1.03 0.07 0.00 4.95 17.4 561 137 WED 00Z 12-FEB 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.95 12.5 558 135 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.06 0.00 0.00 5.01 8.4 558 134 WED 12Z 12-FEB 0.08 0.00 0.00 5.09 7.4 560 135 WED 18Z 12-FEB 0.04 0.00 0.00 5.13 12.7 563 136 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.06 0.03 0.00 5.19 15.2 565 138 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.01 0.00 0.00 5.20 17.7 566 138 THU 12Z 13-FEB 0.25 0.05 0.00 5.45 16.9 565 138

Seemingly NCAR and the CFS shows a resurgent ENSO upcoming which seems quite possible while the others don't.Oddly,they show the strongest Nina upcoming.

ENSO upcoming is going to be a punching bag east of the IDL from ERW,KW and MJO.Plus signs of a possible strong WWB upcoming

Guess the Euro just shot that down...lol

Seems possible and very well could be but the downfall to me is if there is going to be a transition into a LaNina and what and how strong it does end up to be.Last season we we started to see the surgence of a Nino,this year could be reversed,

What the Euro shows today and who know if it's going to be right,would be a band of heavy rain from frontogenesis in our parts.I wouldnt focus on one spot myself right now and plus where is the convection if any?I'm just showing what it could be look like.I still think the bigger rain maker is coming later than sooner.

You can always look into East Asia for at least some pattern,tho this depends on how teleconnections work out,But you can see a trough moving through East China and ridging building on east and west day 3.and then by day 10 you could start to see a trough coming out the west in NA with ridging east and west if you examine the 5H's.Certainly don't work out everytime but it's a good tool to use

Long range both the Euro and GFS shows a standing tall upper level ridge in the east,have to wait and see but both the Euro and GFS are hinting at this other than timing, but the synoptics look quite similar to the past event with the possible entrance of the 300mb jet 120-140kts this would strenghten the LLShear and be quite another flood potential event.

NMME'S are rolling out,they haven't updated all the way,you have to click on the image to get the right update or you'll be loooking at the old one right now https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 308 AM EST Sat Feb 08 2020 Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2020 - 12Z Tue Feb 11 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...Lower Mississippi Valley across the Lower Tennessee Valley into the Southern Appalachians... Strong short wave energy closes off as it drops across Southern CA to a position off the northern Baja Peninsula by the end of Day 3. Short wave energy ejected from the closed low rides along a slow moving front extending from the Southern Appalachians into the Lower MS Valley, providing synoptic scale ascent for heavy rainfall over areas that received flooding in the recent past. There is a good model agreement with the overall setup, increasing confidence in an enhanced flash flood threat in this area. As the closed mid level low settles just off the Southern CA coast during the second half of Day 3, the west southwest mid level flow becomes increasingly parallel to a slow moving front extending from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the western Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the boundary, a 45/55 knot low level west southwest flow sends 1.50 inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three standard deviations above the mean) along the front, peaking after 11/00z. Within the moisture plume, model soundings showed 500/1000 J/KG of MUCAPE extending from eastern LA into west central GA. The combination of moisture and instability should be sufficient to support low topped convection along the front. Convection is possible at the beginning of the period across MS ahead of the initial short wave energy, extending into northern AL into the Southern Appalachians during the afternoon. The low topped storms are expected to produce heavy rainfall over areas that saw flooding with the last round of heavy rain earlier in the week. After a possible lull during the evening hours, the next area of convection develops along the front across AR into central MS. During this time, difluence increases over the front in the presence of a dual jet structure extending the Lower MS into New England, which should allow an areal coverage in heavy rain. As the front drops slowly southeast during the late evening and overnight, cells are expected to track from southwest northeast along the front, producing training along the front from central MS into northern GA and upstate SC. Hourly rainfall rates during this time could exceed an inch, especially where training occurs. There is a strong model signal for 2.00/4.00+ inches of rainfall extending along the front, with the highest amounts extending from central AL into far northern LA, closest to the best instability axis. Over the Southern Appalachians into northern AL, three hour flash flood guidance values are as low as 1.00/1.50 inches, as these areas received more than 300 percent of normal rainfall in the past week. There are still rivers in flood here, with soils still nearly saturated. Though rainfall amounts here are lower than further southwest, the impact here could be greater. After collaborating with the WFOs MRX/FFC/GSP, a Moderate Risk was placed here for Day 3. Further southwest, extending from northern Al into central MS, the antecedent conditions are not quite as wet, with the bulk of the heaviest rain with the last event occurring further northeast. However, the model signal here is stronger for 3.00/4.00+ inches of rainfall with the convection, lying closer to the best instability. Based on this, and after collaborating with WFOs BMX/JAN/MEG, the Moderate Risk was extended across northern AL into central MS for Day 3. Hayes

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 PM EST Sun Feb 02 2020 Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 04 2020 - 12Z Wed Feb 05 2020 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... 21z update... No significant changes to the previously issued Marginal Risk. Any changes were based primarily on model trends in the placement of the axis of maximum rainfall. Model soundings showed that the best instability remains south of KY/TN, with the best MUCAPE values relegated to the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast (which is not unusual for a cool season system). However, model soundings did show some elevated instability across these areas, with MUCAPE values generally less than 100 J/KG. There is some spread on how models distribute the elevated instability, which has some effect on where the heaviest rainfall axis ultimately resides. Moisture is plentiful, with precipitable water values between two and three standard deviations above the mean transported into the upper TN Valley and lower OH Valley, where three hour flash flood guidance values are as low as 1.50 inches. While there is some model spread regarding the highest rainfall amounts, each of them placed the axis west of the lowest flash flood guidance. Based on this, the Marginal Risk was left in place. If there is better agreement concerning the placement of the heaviest rainfall (especially if it impacts areas with lower flash flood guidance values), a Slight Risk could be needed in later forecasts.

Subsurface is almost cool basin wide,no real sign of any sig WWB upcoming tho the CFS does show right now a KW passing east of the IDL which should warm up region 3 past the mid month,if its right

Surface has cooled some since the last update in 3.Towards the end of the month into the first of next it looks possibly another KW will get to 3 again,seems possible just as well the MJO could get into 8 unlike what the RMM'S are showing today killing it off in 7.But either way the signal looks weak

Starting to think you were on to something back into early Dec,Seems possible the cold pool waters will get sfifted eastwards thats into 3.The subsurface is cooling west of the IDL,plus we have an active CCKW starting to get past the IDL which should help upwell the warmer subsurface east of it

Subsurface has warmed somewhat,not much change with the surface,not much left of the cooler subsurface in the east as well.