jaxjagman

Short range models are showing alot more instability.Memphis got bumped up from a slight to moderate risk. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern Great Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening, spreading east into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The most dangerous corridor for strong tornadoes and intense damaging winds should be centered on northeast Texas through northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening through the overnight. ...South-Central States... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible later today through tonight, with the most dangerous portion being tonight into early Saturday morning with a potential derecho and embedded strong tornado risk. Primary changes this outlook are to expand the Moderate Risk east across the Lower MS Valley and increase tornado probabilities for the evening/overnight period. Vigorous shortwave trough near the AZ/NM border will shift east across the southern Great Plains through 12Z Saturday. A powerful 90+ kt jet at 500 mb is expected to emanate out of the base of the trough across east TX/OK. In response to this trough, the LLJ will increase throughout the period, more notably late in the period. Along the northwest periphery of low-level moisture advancement, multiple elevated supercells are expected to develop this morning across parts of western/northern OK into southern KS. A large hail risk is anticipated initially, but convection will have an opportunity to become surface based towards midday, though discrete cells should not be particularly common as a polar front sags into this region. Farther south, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across west TX where 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to approach 9 C/km. At the same time, strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific cold front/dryline by peak heating, and thunderstorms should easily develop along the eastern edge of this steeper lapse-rate plume. Scattered supercells will evolve from east-central OK to north-central TX by 19-21Z, and farther south into south-central TX during the late afternoon. This activity will be strongly sheared and could produce very large hail early in the convective cycle. With time, multi-scale forcing will encourage consolidation into an extensive QLCS that should accelerate toward the Ark-La-Tex region during the evening. Damaging winds will likely be common along the QLCS with embedded mesovortex and supercell tornadoes. Guidance such as the 00Z HRW-NSSL and HRW-ARW, along with the 06Z NAM and 11Z HRRR suggest that pre-frontal convection should develop out ahead of the QLCS across the Sabine Valley towards 06Z. As this convection spreads northeast across northern LA towards the Ark-La-Miss, the strong tornado potential should increase amid strengthening 0-1 km SRH of 300+ m2/s2 and upper 60s surface dew points. A couple long-track tornadoes are possible given fast storm motions but convective mode should be messy. Consolidation with the accelerating upstream QLCS should eventually occur, sustaining potential for widespread damaging winds with embedded significant severe gusts and tornadoes as it spreads toward the Lower MS Valley through 12Z. ..Grams/Mosier.. 01/10/2020

Loooking like it could be an active tropical season with possibly a LaNina brewing into summer

Even without mesocyclones the wind dmg. could be intense as the gradient tightens,if its right of course

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2020 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe weather episode is expected Day 4-5/Fri-Sat from the Arklatex into the Deep South vicinity. An intense mid/upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico early on Friday will eject eastward into the southern Plains by 12z Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over TX and shift east/northeast toward central AR by 12z Saturday. Ahead of the low, rich Gulf moisture will stream northward across eastern TX/OK and expand eastward across the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states through Saturday. 60s F dewpoints are forecast to extend as far north as the lower OH Valley by Saturday morning, with upper 60s to near 70s dewpoints over parts of the Arklatex on Friday into much of LA/MS/AL/GA on Saturday. This anomalously rich and broad warm sector will reside beneath a 50-70 kt southerly low level jet and 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak. While some questions remain over how pristine the warm sector ahead of the surface low and cold front will remain, especially on Saturday, this kinematic and thermodynamic parameter-space will support severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards from the Arklatex into the TN Valley/Gulf Coast states Friday and Saturday. Mixed convective modes are anticipated given the strength of shear, with a QLCS likely developing ahead of the surface cold front. This will support damaging gusts and mesovortex tornado potential. Additionally, any semi-discrete convection that develops ahead of the QLCS will be in an environment capable of supporting supercells and tornadoes, especially from east TX through central MS/AL. Beyond Saturday, a reprieve from severe potential is expected on Day 6/Sun as high pressure builds over the east and the surface cold front stalls near the southeast Atlantic coast and northern Gulf coast. However, some severe potential could return early next week as a mean trough is forecast to persist across the western half of the country while shortwave impulses eject east/northeast from the southern Plains through the Midwest on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. Confidence in how much the airmass will be able to recover and destabilize remains in question, as the southeastern U.S. is forecast to receive quite a bit of rain. As such, confidence is too low to include severe probs at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/07/2020

Looks like a flood potential is going to be real.Pattern reminds me of last year when we see these lows develop to our SW and track right through TN.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2020 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe weather episode is expected across portions of the Arklatex into the Deep South vicinity on D5/Fri and D6/Sat. The ingredients for severe thunderstorms will being to fall into place Day 4/Thu as an upper ridge spreads eastward across the eastern U.S. and a large-scale trough intensifies across the western states. At the surface, a strong surface pressure gradient will develop from the Midwest to the western Gulf Coast, allowing rich Gulf moisture to begin streaming northward across east TX and the lower MS Valley vicinity on Thursday. The warm sector will expand through the day on Friday from eastern OK/TX eastward across much of the TN Valley and Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints are expected to be impressive for this time of year, climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s as a deepening surface low shifts eastward across OK/TX on Friday. This will occur as the western trough ejects eastward into the southern Plains and an intense southerly low level jet overspreads the region. Forecast guidance also shows a weak EML emanating from the Mexican Plateau spreading over parts of the region, providing a weak cap that should limit warm sector convection initially. Confidence has increased that a strong vertical shear parameter-space will overlay a high-quality warm sector ahead of the ejecting trough and a southeastward-advancing cold front Friday afternoon through Friday night. As such, a 30% severe delineation has been included for parts of the Arklatex within the broader 15% severe probability area. On Day 6/Sat, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to continue into portions of the TN Valley and the northern Gulf Coast vicinity. Similar to Friday, intense shear parameters and adequate instability will exist across the region as the upper trough becomes more compact and lifts northeast across the mid/lower MS Valley to the OH Valley. 15% severe probabilities will be maintained at this time as questions remain with respect to how pristine the warm sector will remain over MS/AL and vicinity, as well as timing/location of key surface features. That being said, the overall pattern will support severe thunderstorms into Saturday evening across much of the Deep South vicinity. Confidence in severe potential beyond Day 6/Sat is low, though guidance suggests stormy conditions could return to parts of the Southeast on Monday/Monday night. ..Leitman.. 01/06/2020

It's still cool into the subsurface into region 3,that's not going to go away anytime soon

ONI is back into a Nino last update,so we'll see in a couple months 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5

Right now the Euro shows a warm front lifting northward next weekend.As the WF lifts you should anyways see even a chance of the thunderstorms possibly severe into next weekend As the LLJ starts to strenghten more or less this drives up the Thetea-E along with SB Capes with DP'S getting into the lower 60's,impressive for Jan.With convection some of those totals might be much higher..IMO

who knows if it will be right

Looks like earlier this year into FEB but this is Jan

She's back,that's not good..lol

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Mid South and central Gulf States vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening, with at least some potential for a few to become severe, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid/upper troughing likely will encompass much of the Rockies, Plains and Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday, with a fairly deep embedded occluding cyclone centered over the mid Missouri Valley region and a significant short wave impulse turning eastward into the base of the trough across the southern Plains. The short wave is forecast to remain progressive, and models suggest that it will pivot in negatively-tilted fashion while accelerating across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley region, around the southeastern periphery of the cyclone, as another significant short wave perturbation digs toward the southern California coast. It appears that this will be accompanied by considerable intensification of lower/mid tropospheric wind fields across much of the Mississippi Valley through the Appalachians, and may contribute to support for renewed cyclogenesis across the Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. While the initial and developing secondary surface cyclones may encompass a broad area, with a potentially sizable warm sector, it still appears that considerable cloud cover, associated rain, and otherwise generally weak lapse rates will inhibit boundary layer destabilization, particularly from the Ohio River northward. Even east of the lower Mississippi Valley, where surface dew points are forecast to increase through the 60s, models continue to indicate that mixed-layer CAPE may maximize in the 250-500 J/kg range Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Mid South/central Gulf States... Severe weather potential for Sunday through Sunday night still appears largely conditioned on sufficient warm sector destabilization. East of the lower Mississippi Valley, forecast soundings indicate moist low-level profiles supportive of boundary-layer based instability, though with very limited CAPE due to weak lapse rates. It is still not certain that this environment will become supportive of appreciable severe weather potential, but it might marginally be enough given the forecast strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields through the day, and favorable large-scale forcing for ascent. South to southwesterly winds in the 850-500 mb layer, within the warm sector, are forecast to strengthen to 50-70+ kt through the day across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Vertical shear for boundary-layer based storms will be strong and conducive to organized severe convection, including potential for one or more evolving lines and discrete supercells. At least some model output suggests that a developing low-level confluence zone could become one focus for the initiation and intensification of storms, well ahead of the surface cold front, across Alabama into eastern Tennessee by late Sunday afternoon. However, confidence is greater that a corridor of forcing for ascent, along/just ahead of the eastward advancing front, will become the primary focus for any possible vigorous convective development. It appears that this may advance east of the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon, before continuing northeastward and eastward through the Tennessee Valley and at least northern portions of Mississippi/Alabama by Sunday evening. Potentially damaging surface gusts aided by downward momentum transport seems the most prominent/widespread possible severe hazard, but a couple of isolated tornadoes may not be out of the question. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None

Just a little LLJ,have to wait and see, Euro might now even show it next run,first time it's shown this it was more like the GFS recently

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2019 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Minimal severe thunderstorm potential is evident across the CONUS on Day 4/Thursday as an upper low moves over northern Mexico towards parts of the Southwest. Deterministic medium-range guidance continues to diverge from Day 5/Friday onward regarding the evolution of this upper low across the central/eastern CONUS. If a slower eastward movement occurs, this would potentially allow for greater low-level moisture return. Regardless of its eventual development, enhanced flow aloft attendant to the upper trough/low should foster strong vertical shear. However, instability is forecast to remain rather weak in both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF. Still, some severe threat may materialize from Day 5/Friday through Day 8/Monday over parts of the southern Plains, lower/mid MS Valley into the TN Valley, and Southeast. However, uncertainty in the location and amplitude of the upper trough/low and related surface features, along with concerns about weak instability, suggest predictability remains too low to include any severe probabilities.

Seems like we are headed into the right direction from past strongly +IOD events lasting into fall/winter.When the strong +IOD occurs(1994,1997,2006) in the late season the ENSO into 3.4 gets stronger on the ONI in the winter months,but it peaks out in "DJF"some what and after that starts to fall into a LaNina more or less into summer 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3

I give credit to the Euro,it did rather well with this even in the long range,It just missed the timing in the short range with the LP passing through Mid Tn

TNI broke the record again in Sept for most -ve,this makes two consecutive months which it has done this,August and Sept. 1981 -1.350 -1.094 -0.835 -0.558 -0.496 -0.464 -0.533 -0.605 -0.708 -0.617 -0.621 -0.708 1982 -1.067 -1.466 -1.922 -2.359 -2.364 -1.924 -1.418 -0.811 0.196 0.981 1.440 1.683 1983 1.822 1.991 2.282 2.929 3.734 4.227 4.143 3.867 3.183 2.462 1.814 1.411 1984 1.080 0.907 0.603 0.369 0.148 -0.183 -0.516 -0.536 -0.277 0.186 0.207 0.255 1985 0.366 0.147 -0.506 -0.572 -0.762 -1.244 -1.452 -1.337 -1.499 -1.379 -0.950 -0.623 1986 -0.564 -0.458 -0.515 -0.968 -1.395 -1.529 -1.727 -1.860 -1.769 -1.689 -1.616 -1.322 1987 -0.980 -0.584 -0.221 -0.192 -0.289 -0.497 -0.835 -1.008 -1.191 -1.283 -1.465 -1.566 1988 -1.718 -1.557 -1.350 -1.229 -1.016 -0.911 -0.771 -0.447 0.274 0.875 1.614 2.362 1989 2.629 2.577 2.039 1.436 0.658 0.103 -0.400 -0.420 -0.404 -0.559 -0.839 -1.019 1990 -1.314 -1.647 -1.634 -1.573 -1.714 -1.810 -1.880 -2.165 -2.399 -2.380 -2.437 -2.357 1991 -2.109 -2.090 -2.002 -1.793 -1.766 -1.843 -1.672 -1.706 -1.655 -1.657 -1.664 -1.625 1992 -1.363 -0.945 -0.480 -0.278 -0.363 -0.564 -0.992 -1.276 -1.317 -1.219 -1.146 -0.878 1993 -0.819 -0.668 -0.417 -0.267 -0.481 -0.629 -0.854 -1.028 -1.186 -1.170 -1.162 -1.005 1994 -1.203 -1.399 -1.611 -1.847 -2.339 -2.750 -2.800 -2.609 -2.500 -2.194 -1.657 -1.493 1995 -1.726 -1.911 -2.190 -2.296 -2.263 -2.004 -1.533 -1.006 -0.569 -0.342 -0.188 -0.028 1996 0.036 -0.373 -0.600 -0.911 -1.525 -1.984 -2.020 -1.961 -1.890 -1.730 -1.662 -1.505 1997 -1.345 -1.149 -0.538 0.297 1.055 1.783 2.510 2.833 2.944 3.090 3.037 2.858 1998 2.716 2.870 3.045 2.983 3.164 3.210 2.762 2.450 2.368 2.262 2.225 2.475 1999 2.451 2.095 1.700 1.138 0.449 -0.101 -0.311 -0.369 -0.200 0.152 0.477 1.065 2000 1.452 1.827 1.857 1.494 0.783 0.170 -0.465 -0.707 -0.798 -0.377 -0.097 0.362 2001 0.785 1.250 0.853 0.239 -0.568 -1.504 -2.452 -2.846 -2.858 -2.637 -2.674 -2.370 2002 -1.780 -1.343 -1.287 -1.326 -1.663 -2.335 -2.871 -3.001 -2.878 -2.546 -2.413 -2.311 2003 -2.523 -2.644 -2.910 -2.995 -3.040 -2.895 -2.723 -2.412 -2.082 -1.738 -1.596 -1.522 2004 -1.600 -1.571 -1.913 -2.272 -2.637 -2.999 -3.376 -3.253 -2.993 -2.731 -2.505 -2.393 2005 -2.598 -2.605 -2.408 -2.383 -2.284 -1.897 -1.885 -2.124 -1.999 -1.668 -1.264 -0.475 2006 0.151 0.067 -0.099 -0.601 -1.170 -1.501 -1.289 -1.087 -0.991 -1.131 -1.184 -1.204 2007 -1.594 -1.834 -2.022 -2.341 -2.655 -2.697 -2.565 -2.305 -1.865 -1.291 -0.302 0.850 2008 1.836 2.404 2.671 2.493 2.015 1.613 1.429 1.173 0.955 0.839 0.787 0.779 2009 0.793 0.753 0.514 0.107 -0.284 -0.476 -0.848 -1.309 -1.687 -2.025 -2.418 -2.571 2010 -2.649 -2.398 -2.127 -1.750 -1.548 -0.957 -0.564 -0.218 0.113 0.681 1.167 1.530 2011 1.523 1.577 1.546 1.271 0.844 0.675 0.387 0.168 -0.029 0.070 0.363 0.844 2012 1.082 1.479 1.613 1.596 1.191 0.601 -0.046 -0.718 -1.412 -1.740 -1.626 -1.515 2013 -1.149 -0.999 -1.167 -1.528 -1.929 -2.379 -2.398 -2.185 -1.936 -1.583 -1.043 -1.077 2014 -1.358 -1.503 -1.408 -1.483 -1.122 -0.636 -0.406 -0.499 -0.813 -1.238 -1.715 -2.117 2015 -2.476 -2.435 -1.984 -1.434 -0.702 -0.198 0.100 0.112 -0.139 -0.404 -0.676 -1.188 2016 -1.630 -1.802 -1.946 -1.978 -1.763 -1.441 -0.968 -0.508 -0.101 0.324 0.690 1.097 2017 1.447 1.465 1.268 0.592 -0.267 -1.150 -1.575 -1.925 -1.847 -1.735 -1.548 -1.264 2018 -1.134 -1.260 -1.320 -1.650 -1.978 -2.118 -2.089 -2.159 -1.979 -1.890 -1.734 -1.700 2019 -1.725 -1.774 -1.892 -2.226 -2.535 -2.750 -3.045 -3.344 -3.286 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday - Lower MS and TN Valley Vicinity... A positively tilted shortwave mid/upper trough will eject from the Plains northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing a band of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across much of the south-central and Midwestern states. At the surface, low pressure over Arkansas will track northeast along the Ohio River toward western PA by Tuesday morning. Strong south/southwesterly low-level flow will bring Gulf moisture north and east across much of the southern U.S., with 60s dewpoints reaching as far north northern AL and perhaps middle TN. Forecast soundings indicate shear supportive of rotating updrafts and supercell structures. However, deep-layer flow will mostly parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front, likely leading to messy storm mode. Nevertheless, MUCAPE of around 500-1500 J/kg is expected across the warm sector and a southwesterly low level jet greater than 40 kt is forecast by most guidance. This should be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered severe cells and line segments capable of damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and possibly hail (where cells can remain discrete). Some uncertainty in north and east extent of the severe threat remains, and some changes are likely in coming outlook updates.

JAMSTEC keeps more Nino conditions alive through summer

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains on D4/Sunday, continuing through the mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Guidance differs on the location of the surface low associated with this shortwave trough, with current forecasts of its position at 12Z D5/Monday ranging from the KS/OK/MO border intersection to central TX. Even with these differences, consensus is good for a moist and moderately unstable environment from the Lower MS Valley through the TN Valley on D5/Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave. Strong vertical shear will extend across this region, supporting long hodographs and supercell wind profiles. Consequently, there is a threat for severe thunderstorms D5/Monday afternoon and evening from the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley as the shortwave trough and associated cold front move through. Forecast confidence is high enough to introduce severe probabilities. Refinements to this area are likely in subsequent forecast as mesoscale details become more apparent. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the front as it continues eastward through the remainder of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Tuesday. However, favorable low-level moisture and instability will become increasingly displaced south of the better large-scale forcing for ascent, suggesting a more limited severe risk. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected across the CONUS on D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday.

See what happens Monday,probably a better chance into Ms right now where better instability should be. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active upper pattern will continue from the weekend into next week with several systems expected to rotate through the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday. Thunderstorms are anticipated across FL (and perhaps eastern NC) as a the cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. Instability will be limited but vertical shear will be strong and a few stronger storms are possible. Another strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin/northern Rockies through the central/southern Plains and mid MS Valley into the OH Valley D5/Sunday through D7/Tuesday. Some timing and strength differences exist within the guidance but the overall pattern has shown reasonably good run-to-run and model-to-model consistency. Period between this shortwave and the one before it is enough for decent moisture from the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. As a result, a moderately moist and unstable air mass is forecast to be place ahead of this maturing system. Given the active pattern, a bit more consistency is needed within the guidance to have enough confidence to delineate any threat areas. However, if current trends continue, probabilities will likely be needed in a succeeding outlook.