jaxjagman

I wasnt going to post this,but the warm nose in this east is real ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 18Z FEB16 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) TUE 18Z 16-FEB -5.3 -13.5 125 0 27007 WED 00Z 17-FEB -5.3 -11.6 126 31 32004 WED 06Z 17-FEB -6.9 -3.3 126 6999 04004 0.00 WED 12Z 17-FEB -5.4 -1.3 128 5855 04004 0.00 WED 18Z 17-FEB 4.5 0.1 131 5245 00002 0.00 THU 00Z 18-FEB 1.4 0.9 131 4752 02002 0.01 THU 06Z 18-FEB -0.4 -0.5 130 5136 04003 0.14 THU 12Z 18-FEB 1.2 3.5 132 7813 07005 0.88 THU 18Z 18-FEB 6.1 1.6 132 7388 33004 0.11 FRI 00Z 19-FEB 2.6 1.3 131 5146 36005 0.04 FRI 06Z 19-FEB 0.2 -0.4 130 1938 00005 0.00 FRI 12Z 19-FEB -1.2 -3.0 129 1 00005 0.00 FRI 18Z 19-FEB 2.1 -4.1 129 402 35005 0.00 SAT 00Z 20-FEB -0.7 -5.5 129 727 33005 0.00 SAT 06Z 20-FEB -5.8 -6.9 128 0 04001 0.00 SAT 12Z 20-FEB -6.7 -7.6 127 0 06002 0.00

National Weather Service Nashville TN 300 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 .DISCUSSION... Another bitterly cold day across the mid state. Current 2 PM temps have only warmed to 13 to 16 across the entire mid state area. Clouds have persisted, although a few peaks of sunshine have occurred for those lucky few locations. Next storm system has trended a little colder but is not quite as moisture-laden as previous model runs. Nevertheless, it will still pack a punch and a winter storm watch will be issued soon. It will begin at 3pm Wednesday and continue until 6PM Thursday. An overview of the mslp progs indicates more of a snow oriented pattern whereby the sfc trough inversion is oriented more sw-ne and is a little further to our southeast. isobars across the mid state our more east west and rather flat. The 0C line at 850 mb now appears to be at or below 0C at Nashvile through the entire event. There are still a few outlying mini troughs to the northwest of the main trough. This can be found through the lower levels of the atmosphere. thus, some warming in the lower levels will reach into our eastern and southern zones and may turn the precip over to all rain for a brief time for that area. The winter storm watch will involve 2 segments. segment 1 will include roughly the northwestern two thirds of the mid state, and segment 2 will include the southeastern third. For our northwestern two thirds, we are looking at 1-4 inches of snow with around one tenth inch of ice. For the southeastern third, we have 1 inch of snow and one tenth of an inch of ice. Note that impact based decisions are in support of the southeastern third`s prognosticated snow and ice totals. For the forecast, we will begin to see light snow move in early Wednesday morning across the west. The precipitation will pick up in intensity Wednesday night and we will see mostly snow across the northwest half and then snow, freezing rain and some rain southeast. The precip intensity will decrease but will be all light snow on Thursday night. After a few morning flurries on Friday morning, the precip will then end. For the near term temps, very cold again tonight with steady or slightly falling temps and lows of 10-17. Highs will rebound some and into the 30s by Wednesday afternoon. Looks like 25 to 33 for your low temps Wednesday night. Temps will remain nearly steady on Thursday. For the ext fcst, improving conditions expected with warmer temps. Highs will reach near 50 for Sunday and Monday along with a chance of rain. Mid 50s for Tuesday after the system exits.

No that is the 12z,old run

My maps shows the heaviest snows in the west,the HRRR,is that a old run?

Subsurface is getting colder once again.Even seeing a pool of -4 around region3,to the east there has also been some cooling at the surface lately in the east.

Seems like some signs of a possible resurgent Nina upcoming and also signs it won't be.Some of these models have a warm and cold bias.GFDL seems to be warm while GEOS would keep us in a LaNina the rest of our lives. The last update CPC put out showed the surface continued to warm in the east,but the subsurface got colder around region 3

Snowing now

Ice

Ones by my house are out http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201044.htm

ational Weather Service Nashville TN 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Latest model guidance has trended just a little bit colder for the lowest 3000 ft or so per model soundings, which may lean precip types for the western half to a more sleet/snow mix early on. Latest obs and mping reports coming in showing that sleet is the dominant precip type so far, with freezing rain mixing in. With a deeper near surface cold layer, the probability of sleet will increase, but the slightest adjustment of a shallower cold layer will lean the forecast to more freezing rain. The area that is most vulnerable to changes in the shallow cold air will be a swath of the mid state from Lawrence County up to Sumner, and east from Bedford County up to Pickett. That section of the mid state has the greatest model variability in that cold layer depth... if the cold air is shallower, we will be looking at more freezing rain in that area, and ice amounts will increase. If the cold air is deeper, more sleet will be expected with a possible quicker transition to snow later this afternoon. Did not alter snow and ice amounts much from the previous forecast since the obs trends may help tell the tale early this afternoon. 18Z special BNA sounding will also help assess the depth of the cold air and how well the models are handling it at this time. Other than adjusting wx, temps and pops slightly to line up with latest guidance and obs, no major changes to the forecast.

Fixing to get some decent ZR and IP,hope it is more IP

Mesoscale Discussion 0087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana...eastern Mississippi...western Alabama...middle Tennessee...and central/eastern Kentucky Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 151528Z - 152130Z SUMMARY...A relatively narrow band of freezing rain will persist for several hours across the discussion area. The onset of freezing rain will occur in portions of Tennessee in the next hour or so and in Kentucky after around 18-19Z. DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaic imagery and observations indicate areas of moderate to occasionally heavy freezing rain along an axis from BTR/HUM to HSV. The precipitation was being enhanced by strong ascent associated with an upstream mid-level wave centered over Oklahoma and Texas. Impressive hourly freezing rain rates have been observed - including 0.11 inch per hour at BTR as of 1453Z. Weak mid-level instability was allowing for localized enhancement of precipitation rates in a few areas due to the convective processes. A few lightning flashes have also been observed across Mississippi. Over time, the band of heavier precipitation will migrate northeastward, with freezing rain becoming increasingly likely across Tennessee and Kentucky. Accumulations of 0.05-0.20 inch per 3 hours are possible (locally heavier near convection). Current observations/models indicate that areas of freezing rain have already begun south/southeast of Nashville, and heavier precipitation will begin in the Nashville area in the next hour or so. 3-6 hours of freezing rain is expected. The onset of heavier freezing rain will spread from southwest to northeast across central/eastern Kentucky beginning after around 18-19Z. The axis of heavier freezing rain will shift eastward out of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi this morning (in the next hour or two), though lighter accumulations of freezing drizzle/rain and sleet may continue throughout the afternoon. ..Cook.. 02/15/2021

Long as i have been living in Tn i have never recalled a system before it gets to the Big bend of Fl eject to Northern Ga that fast Edit:I'm not saying its fast really,but the track is rather unique

Never can have anything simple here.Inverted trough,this could really cut into the snow and be more IP or ZR around our parts

Precip mode isnt doing very good,its not snowing,it's IP,least it is IP here

You should invest in radarscope,its pretty cheap,i have grlevel 2 also but that is expensive

Where are you at anyways?You mentioned Clarksville but your sig says Smyrna? Edit:Nevermind,i understand now after reading it over

Davidson Co., won't get into the political aspect of Cooper,but that should give you a hint.Glad i live in Williamson

Yeah no doubt,looks like we might get a break then another round is coming in from the SW

yes

Snow never was suppose to start until the afternoon,ip and zr until then

I thoght it was snowing also when i just went outside not much sleet no more, more ZR

Ice http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201113.htm

Nashville is close to another big ice storm ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z FEB14 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 18Z 14-FEB -2.9 0.1 1025 69 48 563 544 MON 00Z 15-FEB -2.1 1.4 1024 71 94 563 544 MON 06Z 15-FEB -3.2 2.6 1023 95 97 0.10 562 544 MON 12Z 15-FEB -3.7 2.4 1021 94 96 0.10 561 544 MON 18Z 15-FEB -3.0 0.9 1016 91 100 0.31 559 546 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -4.6 -2.4 1012 89 95 0.45 552 542 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -7.4 -8.0 1015 85 31 0.06 545 534 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -9.4 -11.9 1020 80 66 0.01 541 526 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -5.7 -11.6 1023 60 36 0.00 547 529 WED 00Z 17-FEB -9.1 -10.2 1024 71 12 0.00 553 535 WED 06Z 17-FEB -9.8 -4.6 1025 79 38 0.00 557 538 WED 12Z 17-FEB -6.5 -2.7 1026 78 70 0.00 559 539 WED 18Z 17-FEB 1.2 -1.0 1025 50 97 0.00 561 542 THU 00Z 18-FEB 0.7 0.1 1020 66 97 0.00 562 546 THU 06Z 18-FEB 0.2 1.5 1019 96 98 0.56 564 548 THU 12Z 18-FEB 0.8 3.5 1016 94 71 0.28 562 550