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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    It still amazes me how the pattern looks so similar to 2021.I had to rub my eyes,check it over and over and over to make sure i had the right dates,even the MJO into the IO almost did the same thing into Jan around the same exact time frame
  2. jaxjagman
    Certainly as of today someone could get a winter storm towards the mid month of Feb in our parts if the teles work in our favor
  3. jaxjagman
    This would be similar to what the GFS is showing with a warm up in East Asia which should possibly be into the 2nd week of Feb, for us then the heights fall
  4. jaxjagman
    Then go ahead into mid March you can see what actually transpired in 2021,not saying this will happen again,just pointing stuff from 2021 vs 2024
  5. jaxjagman
    Here is the velocity comparing 2021 vs 2024,1st map is 2021
  6. jaxjagman
    Here is the MJO back into 2021 compared to this year,the stopping point is Feb 18th.We had a major winter storm Feb14-15 in Middle Tn.See and similarity?
  7. jaxjagman
    Meh,lets let it go,i shouldnt have said anything myself .
  8. jaxjagman
    I reckon,good luck to him 9-10 days out
  9. jaxjagman
    The whole patterm looks nothing more than a meridonal flow into Feb
  10. jaxjagman
    He cant be serious,its going OTS
  11. jaxjagman
    Actually the more i look at this map i'm gonna still say mid month still
  12. jaxjagman
    Seems like the models are trending slower today,what was looking like like height rises around the 9th and 10th look to be getting pushed back to more the 11th or 12th or around there,seems like any cool down will be around the 17th now give or take thats just my take right now
  13. jaxjagman
    Seems like the MJO keeps getting pushed back each day into the WP,There is still considerable spread
  14. jaxjagman
    It's bombogenesis once it hits the gulf stream.Surprised it didnt go OTS
  15. jaxjagman
    I still think what Carver has been saying is close ,the heights the EPS is showing fall into East China and Korea as we get into Feb is a cold sign for us here,sometimes the jet extension can stay in East Asia despite,still some concern where the MJO will be at and where it actually goes
  16. jaxjagman
    I still wonder where the MJO will be at,it retracts back into Asia but get enhanced once again,could be where its doing all its things into ph7
  17. jaxjagman
    Lots more ensembles joined in today for the NH party,just dont like the mean going into the COD,it wouldnt be a game breaker but still
  18. jaxjagman
  19. jaxjagman
    Euro MJO seems to go bonkers into the WP because its been showing another WWB as we get into Feb,its been holding on to keeping the MJO into the WP for a extended stay and hasnt backed down much of any.CFS has been showing the same thing on the velocity but its also been showing a suppressed MJO signal with the 2nd WWB and the MJO is more advanced headed towards Africa and the Western IO into wk2 of Feb today
  20. jaxjagman
    I'm not saying this will happen or will be politically correct,but the pattern does have some resemblence to Feb 2021.Once again this is not a forecast Overview An Arctic airmass spread across Middle Tennessee from Thursday February 11 through Sunday February 14, 2021, bringing very cold temperatures in the teens and 20s along with lengthy periods of freezing drizzle. This led to ice forming on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines, as well as bridges, overpasses, and some roadways. As a major winter storm brought additional freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the area from Sunday evening February 14 into Monday February 15, 2021, the previous ice combined with the new ice, sleet, and snow to cause significant ice storm damage across parts of east-central Middle Tennessee, as well as create massive travel disruptions areawide. Locations from Giles and Lincoln Counties northeastward to Pickett and northern Fentress Counties received anywhere from 0.5" to over 1" of ice accretion from the combination of the weekend freezing drizzle plus new freezing rain. Numerous trees and power lines were downed in many counties, resulting in tens of thousands of power outages, with the worst damage affecting Lincoln, Bedford, Coffee, Cannon, Putnam, Overton, and northern Fentress Counties. Elsewhere, 2 to 3 inches of combined sleet and snow along with the frigid temperatures caked most surfaces in a thick layer of ice, with travel coming to a standstill across the northwestern half of Middle Tennessee - including the Nashville metro area. https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/01/22/mjo-forecast-and-stratospheric-warming/
  21. jaxjagman
    I'm not sure myself,there is signs tho the AO could crash right now but you'd need other teles to work in tandem
  22. jaxjagman
  23. jaxjagman
    Much as i gave up on the MJO this morning i'm much more of a skeptic once again where the MJO will be at.Seems more Euro ensembles today are more on the faster side like the velocity has been showing
  24. jaxjagman
    Should be out west not the east
  25. jaxjagman
    Most of the models in the long range models shows a ridge into East Asia,with height rises into East China/Korea,that should be a warm look towards Feb 8-9th around that time anyways for us,maybe some hints also that some sort of change is upcoming afterwards into Mongolia and China on that map.If the GFS is anywhere right we should see a cool down shortly after,this is a cold look in the lower latitude of East Asia,but we all know how the GFS can whiff at this range
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