jaxjagman

Where are you?

https://www.windy.com/pois?lclouds,33.376,-72.751,5 You can basically see the same here

Took the GFS off,that was yesterday it hasnt loaded yet

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for an outbreak of severe storms including several long-track strong tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and severe/destructive winds, will exist Thursday into Thursday evening across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough with attendant 70-100 kt+ mid-level jet will eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS Valley on Thursday, and continue over the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes region Thursday night. At the surface, a weak low over northeast TX at the beginning of the period Thursday morning is expected to likewise develop northeastward to the mid MS Valley through the day while deepening. A warm front attendant to this cyclone will likely lift northward across the lower MS Valley/Mid-South and TN Valley towards the lower OH Valley by Thursday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from northeast TX into southern AR and northern MS/AL and TN. This activity will likely be supported by a southerly low-level jet and related warm advection. These storms should shift northward through the morning, allowing for destabilization via diurnal heating to occur across the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture with at least mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints (perhaps lower 70s), should advect northward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast by Thursday afternoon. This increasing moisture, coupled with diurnal heating, will likely support MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg developing over a fairly broad portion of these regions. A pronounced low-level jet (50-60+ kt) will overlie much of this region as well, as large-scale ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough overspreads the lower/mid MS Valley vicinity. Strongly veering and strengthening wind profiles from the surface through mid levels will support supercells. 0-1 km SRH along/south of the surface warm front will likely reach 300-500 m2/s2, and low-level mesocyclones capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes appear likely with any supercells that can form. Scattered large hail, some of which may be 2+ inches in diameter, and severe/destructive winds also appear probable, both with supercells and any bowing line segments that can develop. At this time, the best potential for strong tornadoes appears to extend from parts of central/northern MS into western/middle TN and central/northern AL, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening as storms move generally northeastward. Concern does exist regarding the effect of storms forming during the morning on the development of instability, and potential for destructive interference from too many storms developing across the warm sector at the same time. Still, given the very favorable environment forecast across this region and the potential for numerous supercells, an upgrade to High Risk for multiple strong to potentially violent, long-track tornadoes may be needed in a later outlook update. ...Ohio Valley... Fairly widespread precipitation should occur over a majority of the lower OH Valley through the day. This should temper diurnal destabilization to some degree, but weak instability will probably still develop along/east of the surface low and northward-moving warm front. At least an isolated severe threat may develop late Thursday afternoon into the evening as the southerly low-level jet strengthens over this region and low-level moisture increases. The potential for a low-topped line of storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will exist given the strength of the low-level flow and related shear. These storms will likely be tied to a cold front as it tracks northeastward through the evening and overnight hours. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2021

Moderate now up to Nashville

Always that possibility

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 06Z MAR24 PRESSURE LEVELS SFC 1000 925 850 700 600 500 400 300 200 WED 06Z 24-MAR 28001 17001 18010 19031 21022 21016 23031 23046 23069 24112 WED 09Z 24-MAR 13004 13003 17013 20031 23022 22021 24026 24070 22064 24113 WED 12Z 24-MAR 13004 12002 17016 20030 22026 23032 24023 24063 22072 24097 WED 15Z 24-MAR 19002 18002 18014 21024 22034 24022 25023 25046 22074 24077 WED 18Z 24-MAR 21009 21007 21015 21016 24032 24023 25026 26042 24072 24085 WED 21Z 24-MAR 22008 22006 22014 21018 25031 25021 26030 26043 24061 24091 THU 00Z 25-MAR 25004 23004 23017 20021 25020 24017 26028 26041 24065 25092 THU 03Z 25-MAR 18004 18004 20018 21019 23015 21018 25022 25035 24068 25092 THU 06Z 25-MAR 18004 16003 19017 20017 21018 21025 23023 24032 25075 26093 THU 09Z 25-MAR 11004 10003 17014 19021 22026 21029 21030 25047 25091 25114 THU 12Z 25-MAR 10005 09003 15015 19023 22032 22030 23033 25055 24074 24108 THU 15Z 25-MAR 11006 11003 15019 19034 22043 23048 24054 24064 24069 24081 THU 18Z 25-MAR 16003 16002 18018 20043 24048 24051 25060 25066 24062 24079 THU 21Z 25-MAR 16008 16006 18025 21040 23037 23051 24062 24066 25077 25095 FRI 00Z 26-MAR 15007 16004 17024 19054 23067 23072 24074 25069 24069 24073 FRI 03Z 26-MAR 18012 19008 19032 20060 23069 24077 24082 24087 24084 23074 FRI 06Z 26-MAR 21015 21010 22035 22057 24061 24074 24088 24098 24105 24087

See what the models show today.Euro6z went back to the west,probably just slower but the west shift shows a better LLJ

Looks like they are updating the maps daily now,time stamp says the 19th but it's been updating everyday

18z Euro is further east and weaker ,about where the GFS shows it at 0z Friday but the GFS 18z is now stronger

The 6Z Euro is further west, it now tightens it up more into the MO/V,it was showing the LLJ 55-65 KTS in the Valley now it's more 60-70 kts

Just some guidance from the map i ran off of.I would not trust it this far out tho.It basically just shows where a possibility of strong tornadoes could be.

National Weather Service Memphis TN 251 PM CDT Sun Mar 21 2021 .DISCUSSION... Beautiful conditions are occurring across the Mid-South this afternoon as upper ridging is occurring aloft. Temperatures have climbed into the mid 60s. Tranquil weather will come to an end as a large scale upper trough will set up over the Rockies on Monday and will remain in place through next week. As a result, a series of upper level low pressure systems move within the flow. The first will begin to dig into the Texas Panhandle on Monday. Clouds will begin developing across portions of the Mid-South ahead of the system late tonight into Monday morning. A few warm air advection showers will also be possible, but at this time not enough to mention 20 POPS. The upper level low will then lift northeastward into Northwest Missouri by Tuesday afternoon. The SFC low will be nearly stacked with the upper low tracking in a similar path. The system will also become occluded as it lifts northeastward pinching off instability limiting severe weather potential. That being said, there could still be some gusty winds from a decaying line of convection that moves into Eastern Arkansas late Monday Night into early Tuesday morning. The associated cold front will never clear the Mid-South and will become stalled over the area Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the front through Wednesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday Night through Thursday evening as the next upper level low pressure system dives into the Southern Plains. The low will open up to a potent upper trof becoming negatively tilted as it lifts into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The latest GFS has come more in line with ECMWF and Canadian with the track of the SFC low in the vicinity of the Mississippi Delta. However, differences remain with timing of the system. A warm and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the system. Looking at the SLU CIPS Analog data, the number one analog shows this could be a potentially dangerous severe weather day across the portions of the Mid-South if the system evolves as models indicate. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will be possible from storms that develop out ahead of the system. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Stay tuned. The final system will move out of the Rockies next weekend bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid- South. Temperatures will remain mild through the period. KRM

The Euro wants to bomb the system out once it reaches into the O/V.This would start to strenghten the LLJ to around55-65 kts once it starts to get into the MO/V in Tn,it even shows the LLJ getting to around 70 kts into Ky afterwards

Cips shows this as the top analog today ( "ducking from Jeff :)"

It's actually been a quiet time in Tn,we have only had one tornado so far this year

Subsurface is slightly warmer in the east, and also cooler east of the IDL.Surface has been cooling the last few days other than 4.CFS shows a KW coming through next week.Few days ago the CFS showed a stronger EKW,but not the past couple days.

https://whnt.com/weather/nws-huntsville-determines-a-second-ef-1-tornado-touched-down-in-cullman-county-wednesday-night/?fbclid=IwAR3JgsdxaIe-oV7F14ptxtFoRaDz3Bd4ua3jy-snFuZtMgG_wpivQ-e32WQ

https://www.ustornadoes.com/2021/03/17/march-17-18-2021-tornado-outbreak/

Sure looks like a active period is coming up.CFS shows a KW coming into play into wk3 and this Sunday a decent trough is going to go through East Asia.Models will more than likely struggle once again showing all kinds of solutions. Just a note and certainly no forecast but the day before the storms hit into dixie alley CIPS showed the best analog as 4-15-11 and then 12 days later was the super outbreak,during that time frame