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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    3" hail marker 3"hail marker
  2. jaxjagman
    Mesoscale Discussion 0257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251929Z - 252130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat of severe storms including tornadoes will increase by late afternoon into Middle Tennessee and persist through the evening. A watch may be issued by 21Z. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis currently shows a warm front into far southwestern TN extending east/southeast into northern AL. Meanwhile, another warm front extended from the developing surface low from southern IL into central KY. In between these two fronts, gradual warming is taking place, with temperatures now into the low 70s F. MUCAPE currently remains below 1000 J/kg as a result of dewpoints near 60 F. Strengthening 850 mb winds out of the southwest later today should aid moisture advection out of MS into Middle TN, with areas of heating helping to destabilize as well. Shear will become increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 21-03Z time frame, and a few tornadoes are anticipated as the mid 60s F dewpoints arrive later today. With the more unstable air in place, effective SRH may reach 400-500 m2/s2. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021
  3. jaxjagman
    He has thousands of people that follow him and he gives everyone a bad sign,he shouldn't say shit like that...excuse my french
  4. jaxjagman
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 148 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 ALC073-117-251900- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-210325T1900Z/ Shelby AL-Jefferson AL- 148 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SHELBY COUNTY... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES... At 147 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Mount Laurel, or near Chelsea, moving northeast at 45 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Hwy 280 and 119. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
  5. jaxjagman
    WWUS54 KBMX 251837 SVSBMX HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Hoover, Vestavia Hills, Trussville, Leeds, Moody, Chelsea, Indian Springs Village, Vincent, Harpersville, Westover, Shops of Grand River, Oak Mountain State Park, Vandiver, Barber Motorsports Park, Greystone, Highland Lakes, Fowler Lake, Lake Purdy, Brook Highland and Meadowbrook.
  6. jaxjagman
    Yes it will
  7. jaxjagman
    Actually pretty cool,like they did in the old days
  8. jaxjagman
    Couple days ago there was hardly any low level shear ay 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday across the lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. Other strong to severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest. Isolated damaging wind and large hail are the main threats. ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley region... Some thunderstorms will probably be ongoing early Saturday, mainly across a portion of the TN Valley. There is some uncertainty regarding how these early storms evolve, but this activity will probably shift northeast and weaken with time. Under the influence of a broad fetch of southwesterly low-level winds, richer moisture with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F will advect northward into this region contributing to moderate instability with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Other storms might develop during the evening or overnight within the warm advection regime as the low-level jet strengthens. A cold front associated with a northern stream shortwave trough will approach this region from the northwest and likely contribute to the development of additional storms overnight, likely consolidating into lines and clusters. This activity will be embedded within strong vertical wind profiles supporting the potential for a few organized structures capable of mainly isolated strong to damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Midwest region... Low-level moisture will be more limited in this region. However, cold air aloft will compensate and the atmosphere could become at least marginally unstable as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Storms may initiate along frontal zone within a strongly sheared environment supportive of a few organized storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind. ..Dial.. 03/25/2021
  9. jaxjagman
    Not sure
  10. jaxjagman
    3kNAM is showing what Jeff said up above.The OFB starts to work its way up from MS/AL.In the mean time a inverersion will be into place late morning into early afternoon,this inversion will break early afternoon and the storms should start to explode mid afternoon
  11. jaxjagman
    I don't think i'd have ever guessed that
  12. jaxjagman
    Where are you?
  13. jaxjagman
    https://www.windy.com/pois?lclouds,33.376,-72.751,5 You can basically see the same here
  14. jaxjagman
    Took the GFS off,that was yesterday it hasnt loaded yet
  15. jaxjagman
  16. jaxjagman
    Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for an outbreak of severe storms including several long-track strong tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and severe/destructive winds, will exist Thursday into Thursday evening across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough with attendant 70-100 kt+ mid-level jet will eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS Valley on Thursday, and continue over the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes region Thursday night. At the surface, a weak low over northeast TX at the beginning of the period Thursday morning is expected to likewise develop northeastward to the mid MS Valley through the day while deepening. A warm front attendant to this cyclone will likely lift northward across the lower MS Valley/Mid-South and TN Valley towards the lower OH Valley by Thursday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from northeast TX into southern AR and northern MS/AL and TN. This activity will likely be supported by a southerly low-level jet and related warm advection. These storms should shift northward through the morning, allowing for destabilization via diurnal heating to occur across the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture with at least mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints (perhaps lower 70s), should advect northward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast by Thursday afternoon. This increasing moisture, coupled with diurnal heating, will likely support MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg developing over a fairly broad portion of these regions. A pronounced low-level jet (50-60+ kt) will overlie much of this region as well, as large-scale ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough overspreads the lower/mid MS Valley vicinity. Strongly veering and strengthening wind profiles from the surface through mid levels will support supercells. 0-1 km SRH along/south of the surface warm front will likely reach 300-500 m2/s2, and low-level mesocyclones capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes appear likely with any supercells that can form. Scattered large hail, some of which may be 2+ inches in diameter, and severe/destructive winds also appear probable, both with supercells and any bowing line segments that can develop. At this time, the best potential for strong tornadoes appears to extend from parts of central/northern MS into western/middle TN and central/northern AL, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening as storms move generally northeastward. Concern does exist regarding the effect of storms forming during the morning on the development of instability, and potential for destructive interference from too many storms developing across the warm sector at the same time. Still, given the very favorable environment forecast across this region and the potential for numerous supercells, an upgrade to High Risk for multiple strong to potentially violent, long-track tornadoes may be needed in a later outlook update. ...Ohio Valley... Fairly widespread precipitation should occur over a majority of the lower OH Valley through the day. This should temper diurnal destabilization to some degree, but weak instability will probably still develop along/east of the surface low and northward-moving warm front. At least an isolated severe threat may develop late Thursday afternoon into the evening as the southerly low-level jet strengthens over this region and low-level moisture increases. The potential for a low-topped line of storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will exist given the strength of the low-level flow and related shear. These storms will likely be tied to a cold front as it tracks northeastward through the evening and overnight hours. ..Gleason.. 03/24/2021
  17. jaxjagman
  18. jaxjagman
    Moderate now up to Nashville
  19. jaxjagman
    Always that possibility
  20. jaxjagman
  21. jaxjagman
  22. jaxjagman
    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 06Z MAR24 PRESSURE LEVELS SFC 1000 925 850 700 600 500 400 300 200 WED 06Z 24-MAR 28001 17001 18010 19031 21022 21016 23031 23046 23069 24112 WED 09Z 24-MAR 13004 13003 17013 20031 23022 22021 24026 24070 22064 24113 WED 12Z 24-MAR 13004 12002 17016 20030 22026 23032 24023 24063 22072 24097 WED 15Z 24-MAR 19002 18002 18014 21024 22034 24022 25023 25046 22074 24077 WED 18Z 24-MAR 21009 21007 21015 21016 24032 24023 25026 26042 24072 24085 WED 21Z 24-MAR 22008 22006 22014 21018 25031 25021 26030 26043 24061 24091 THU 00Z 25-MAR 25004 23004 23017 20021 25020 24017 26028 26041 24065 25092 THU 03Z 25-MAR 18004 18004 20018 21019 23015 21018 25022 25035 24068 25092 THU 06Z 25-MAR 18004 16003 19017 20017 21018 21025 23023 24032 25075 26093 THU 09Z 25-MAR 11004 10003 17014 19021 22026 21029 21030 25047 25091 25114 THU 12Z 25-MAR 10005 09003 15015 19023 22032 22030 23033 25055 24074 24108 THU 15Z 25-MAR 11006 11003 15019 19034 22043 23048 24054 24064 24069 24081 THU 18Z 25-MAR 16003 16002 18018 20043 24048 24051 25060 25066 24062 24079 THU 21Z 25-MAR 16008 16006 18025 21040 23037 23051 24062 24066 25077 25095 FRI 00Z 26-MAR 15007 16004 17024 19054 23067 23072 24074 25069 24069 24073 FRI 03Z 26-MAR 18012 19008 19032 20060 23069 24077 24082 24087 24084 23074 FRI 06Z 26-MAR 21015 21010 22035 22057 24061 24074 24088 24098 24105 24087
  23. jaxjagman
    See what the models show today.Euro6z went back to the west,probably just slower but the west shift shows a better LLJ
  24. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Looks like they are updating the maps daily now,time stamp says the 19th but it's been updating everyday
  25. jaxjagman
    18z Euro is further east and weaker ,about where the GFS shows it at 0z Friday but the GFS 18z is now stronger
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