jaxjagman

Its starting to recycle maybe

No it died,moved my scan to Paducah

Died again

Weakened a bit but still TOG

Dont see no big towns but its recycling

Its coming back that strong cell.south of Rives

South of Pleasant Plains,rotation is getting better

now it is weaking

so much for weaking

Weaking now,see if recycles back

No kidding

PDS now

3 NOW

NDOT,is up to 2.5,some SERIOUS ROATION in that cell

oh man

Looks nice

By Weiner

Getting active to the west

Mesoscale Discussion 1986 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...portions of far northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel...far western Tennessee...extreme southwest Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 552... Valid 110022Z - 110115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552 continues. SUMMARY...Locally higher tornado threat potentially materializing with a maturing supercell across northeast Arkansas. Potential exists for this supercell to become long-lived, with sustained/strong tornadoes possible over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...KLZK, KNQA, and MRMS mosaic radar data all depict an intense supercell in progress across the Jackson/Woodruff County AR area, where deep-layer ascent and LLJ intensity both continue to increase in magnitude. Latest LZK and NQA radar data also depicts a possible TDS, suggesting that the supercell may have already produced a tornado. The 00Z LZK sounding shows that the convective inhibition above the boundary layer has eroded, with a moist and unstable boundary layer likely advecting ahead of the ongoing storm. The 00Z sounding, along with the 2352Z NQA VWP shows a relatively long/curved hodograph with 0-1 and 0-3 km SRH at/over 300 m2/s2. Low-level shear is only expected to increase with further intensification of the LLJ over the MS river. Furthermore, several of the recent HRRR runs have also depicted a long-tracked supercell across this region. As such, this supercell may obtain a steady-state structure, with additional tornadoes (some strong) potentially accompanying this storm through early evening.

HRR shows the cap breaking around 10pm here and discrete storms start to pop up shortly after

Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST AR/SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN TN/KY AND SOUTHERN IL... AMENDED TO INCREASE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ...SUMMARY... A few strong tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail are all expected beginning this evening across Arkansas and Missouri, with the greatest tornado threat close to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. The damaging wind and tornado threat will persist overnight while spreading eastward into the Tennessee Valley and northeastward across the Ohio Valley overnight. Northeast Texas: Isolated thunderstorms are developing a bit farther west across northeast Texas than earlier anticipated. With ample moisture/instability across this region ahead of the front will increase severe probabilities across this region. The previous forecast appears to be on track, and little change is needed at 20Z. At 19Z, a dryline was located near the I-35 corridor from north TX into OK, with gradual warming and destabilization noted eastward into AR. Upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is already in place there, with further warming along with dewpoints holding in the upper 60s F. While capping currently exists over most areas, the deepening moist boundary layer is forecast become uncapped prior to 00Z over AR, and this will support possible supercell development with tornado threat evolving east-northeastward into western KY/TN through the evening. Otherwise, expanding storm coverage is likely around 03Z along/ahead of the cold front as large scale lift increases across the MS and OH Valleys, with very strong shear favoring tornadoes, possibly strong. For more information on the AR and southeast MO area, see mesoscale discussion 1978. ..Darrow.. 12/10/2021

How are you Mr.Bob,dont see you around much?

Mesoscale Discussion 1982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...southeast Indiana...and western Kentucky. Concerning...Tornado Watch 552... Valid 102245Z - 110015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552 continues. SUMMARY...A slow increase in storm intensity/coverage is expected over the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Initial storms which developed near Little Rock have not shown much organization thus far. In addition, weak cellular convection is developing across much of the Mississippi River region. However, a strong capping inversion, sampled by the 19Z LZK RAOB is likely limiting more robust storm development thus far. As heights continue to fall this evening, expect these warmer mid-level temperatures to erode further and expect greater storm coverage and intensity. Once mature supercells can develop, all severe hazards remain possible as the environment remains favorable with 0 to 1 km shear now in excess of 35 knots per KLZK VWP.

Mid South some of these short range models coming in might have a rough night