jaxjagman

We are like a Jekyll and Hyde team.When we play good, we can beat anyone.When we play bad we can lose to anyone,don't matter who it is.I didn't get to watch much of the game.The gym my son had his comp. at today had terrible internet connection :(.Thanks for the props though.But if the game was played at yalls house the outcome probably would have been different. My son did well today which made my day today.He made the Tennessee All-Elite team,level 10's, Which is the highest level in gymnastics,before college

Been in Knoxville for my sons state gymnastics meet ,so i'll miss this one. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama. ...Synopsis... A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark. An intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK into the lower OH Valley by early evening. In the low levels, a surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight. A warm front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH Valley late. ...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys... A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower OH Valley today. At the start of the period, a couple of clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into eastern OK/western AR. Varying possible solutions are evident in model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over the Ark-La-Tex vicinity. Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL. Model guidance correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north (MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg farther south) but extreme low-level shear. Hodographs become very large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk area. It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level dry slot. If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential. A corridor of possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from the area. As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures capable primarily of damaging winds may occur.

ay 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2019 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement over the U.S. through Day 6 (Monday 3-11), with the main upper feature early in the period being a negatively-tilted upper trough that will move quickly out of the central and southern Plains, across the Upper Midwest, and into the Upper Great Lakes Day 4 (Saturday 3-9). As this system continues to progress into eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. Day 5 (Sunday 3-10), a strengthening trough farther west is progged to be digging southward along the West Coast, before shifting more eastward/inland Day 6. At this point, model agreement deteriorates significantly with eastward progression/evolution of this system, and thus forecast confidence remains low during the second half of the period. In the meantime, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to expand across a large area from eastern portions of the central and southern Plains early Day 4, eastward/northeastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday morning. Given the strength of this system, and the accompanying/strong kinematic field, risk for at least isolated severe storms remains evident -- including potential for damaging winds and some tornado risk. However, a primary limiting factor appears likely to be limited CAPE (in part due to the widespread convective development). As such, will maintain only 15% risk at this time, though strength of this system and accompanying deep-layer wind field warrants attention in future outlooks. Day 5, models suggest that continued cold frontal advance across the East Coast and Gulf Coast states will occur, with the front currently progged to reside near both the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts near the end of the Day 5 period. Ahead of the boundary, modest CAPE but strong shear is expected, warranting introduction of a 15% risk area from the central Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. With the front largely offshore by Day 6, a lull in severe weather risk is evident at this time, prior to the advance of the next western upper system.

GEFS and Euro want to kill the MJO off to fast,looks more progressive

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2019 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement through roughly Day 5 (Saturday 3-9), with respect to spatial positioning of the main synoptic features. The GFS remains the more aggressive model with respect to deepening of the upper trough as it crosses the Rockies Day 4 and the Plains Day 5, and thus likewise depicts a much stronger surface cyclone during the Day 5 period. Beyond Day 5, the faster GFS outpaces the slower ECMWF, to the degree that confidence in the potential for accuracy in a convective forecast beyond Day 5 is too low to warrant any areal inclusions. In the Day 4 to 5 time range, when model agreement is higher, it appears that elevated convection will evolve across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, and possibly northward into Nebraska. However, confidence is not high enough that any hail risk evident at this point warrants a Day 4 area. Day 5, a surface cold front is progged to sweep across the central and southern Plains and into Missouri/Arkansas through the day, and then quickly eastward across the Mississippi River into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight. While the strongest large-scale ascent is progged at this time to sweep across the Ozarks vicinity during the day, as the trough takes on a negative tilt, substantial questions remain as to the degree of moistening/destabilization that will be able to occur this far north. Greater severe risk may therefore remain farther south, from east Texas/Louisiana across the Lower Mississippi Valley region, and possibly into the central Gulf Coast states late. Aside from questions regarding instability, this appears likely to be a strongly dynamic system with strong flow/shear covering a broad area. As such, damaging winds, and potential for tornadoes, is evident at this time. At this time, a large 15% probability area will be issued centered on a north-south zone from Missouri to the Lower Mississippi Valley, with additional areal, and risk-level, refinements to be made in subsequent outlooks. ..Goss.. 03/05/2019

Yeah, i saw this.850-hpa zonal winds are showing another possible WWB upcoming

Per Tidbits.,3.4 is the strongest it's been with this Nino, today,if it's right.Sitting at +1.216.No sign of Nino going away soon.

ERTAF http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/

There seems to be a potential wet pattern upcoming.The RRWT has been doing a good job with rain fall in the Valley for awhile.When the MJO gets into P3 this is typically a wet pattern in the Valley with possible convection, until it gets into the COD,then who knows.But you factor in lag time the mid month.This looks like a wet period upcoming.I posted a system coming off East Asia in the severe thread which looks pretty strong upcoming which would effect us mid month,we'll see

Ready for this to end.Winter really sucked basically here.The whole Nino was more Nina all winter.Basically we had three dustings :(If it snows like your map shows this would be the best snows all winter,,,blah

Calipari is an amazing coach.To see him lose players year after year and still be competitive is beyond my belief.But kudos to Tn for a sound win.

Models are showing the Atmospheric River cranking back up into the 2nd week of March.WPC has already highlighted parts of the East into the Valley with heavy rain.Even though we see weak systems until then the FFG should still be rather low.

Nice system showing up next weekend.Potential good system down the road coming off East Asia in the longer range

To add on to the above,you want the ENSO to stay positive into NEXT winter,some signs it will some it wont.Jamstec looks good to me heading into next winter,be nice not to have A SSWE for once.Definte no sign of an Indian Summer in the Valley,not yet anyways.For some reason this hasnt't updated the dates for some odd reason but this should be "O-N-D"

The Aussies usually scorch in a ElNino there doesn't look like any signs of Nino breaking down soon if you look at the thermoclines

https://www.ustornadoes.com/2019/03/01/spring-2019-seasonal-tornado-outlook/ Using analogs of 1995 we had our most 3rd ranked severe of all time,of course during this time frame we was A MORE neutral enso coming of an Nina.Also during this time frame from 1990-1997 we never had a SSWE,would really like to see more study into SSWE's.The last split which was similar to this years was in a weak NINA in 1984 ,on Dec 31st,we broke our all-time record lows temps in Nashville in Jan of 1985 The tornado outbreak in May of 1995 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1995_tornado_outbreak_sequence Edit:I took out some of the post out because i found some conflicting aspects.Wiki seems to be going by reported tornadoes and not confirmed.80 confirmed tornadoes seemed to be really extreme to me.This by OHX back on May 18,1995, looks more realistic https://www.weather.gov/ohx/19950518 Some of the tornado reports were also wind,hail and thunderstorm reports.But either way that was a heck of a day https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php?lat=32.810&lon=87.408&zoom=70&mode=1&bdate=19950518/1200&edate=19950519/1200&torflag=1&windflag=1&hailflag=1&t01=0&t02=5&t03=0&t04=9999&t05=0&t06=9999&t07=0&t08=9999&t09=0&t10=9999&h01=0&h02=9999&w01=0&w02=9999&showt=0&legend=1&showh=-1&showw=-1

Yeah, cuts through around the Ozarks around 12z into Ky 18z.As it does the LLJ strenghtens to around 50-60kts and drives the DP'S into the lower 60's

I got 0.49 TYS all snow Sunday

Friday looks uncertain with a lot of model spread.Euro is suppressed ,GFS is North,,BSR looks even more west. Next Friday will be exactly two years that Middle Tn had its severe outbreak in the morning on March 1

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https://www.tn.gov/tema/current-status.html