jaxjagman

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States into southern New England, as well as the Tennessee Valley, this afternoon to early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England... Additional amplification of the large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS will contribute to a slight cooling of mid-level temperatures and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft coincident with a slow-southeastward-moving front across the central Appalachians toward parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. The coverage of yesterday's storms across most of this region has impacted thermodynamic profiles, with surface temperatures/dewpoints running at least several degrees lower than this time (late morning/midday) yesterday. As noted in the prior Outlook discussion, 12Z soundings from Sterling, Wallops, Upton, Pittsburgh, and Wilmington OH all sampled mean mixing ratios about 2-3 g/kg lower compared to 12Z yesterday and have weaker mid-level lapse rates. That said, moisture will steadily recover and ample insolation is noted at midday across the Mid-Atlantic in the lee of the Appalachians, with MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg possible (highest near the coast). As compared to yesterday, somewhat stronger wind profiles between 2-6km AGL will also be a factor for individual storm longevity/organized storms. Multicells will be common and the possibility exists for a few transient supercells from far southern New York/northern New Jersey into southern New England. Damaging winds will be the most common risk through the afternoon into early evening. ...Mid-South and Tennessee Valley... A moist air mass (70-75F surface dewpoints) remains ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. As morning cloud cover thins, increasing cumuliform/thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon, particularly downstream of a pair of residual MCVs. Wet microbursts yielding localized wind damage will be the main risk. While weak vertical shear will tend to limit overall organization and risk magnitude, a somewhat more focused/organized severe risk may exist this afternoon into early evening across western/middle Tennessee and nearby southern Kentucky and perhaps northern portions of Mississippi/Alabama. Enhanced winds are noted with the MCV near the Mississippi River, with 30-40 kt west-southwesterly winds between 4-6 km in recent (16Z) Paducah, KY WFO-88D VWP data.

Right,CPC last update has no confidence in a Nina.Even down into the thermocline the last update from CPC is warmer.Nino conditions aren't going to go away any time soon it seems.

Probably won't find many analogs for this ENSO.Generally when Nino starts in "ASO" it comes off of least a moderate Nino or develops into a moderate Nino latter months.I looked back on Webberwx and the closest i found was back into 1880.This was a historic time frame with blizzards into the Central Plains into especially the N/Plains with historic snow drifts with blizzards.tho yeah we live in a different era compared to back then,,the tropics were practically dead during this time frame in hurricane season in NA,maybe it's comparable to now ?Who knows.If it is we'll probably say hello to a decent SER this winter Edit:I put the wrong tropical map up,should have been 1881 not 1880

IMME is showing close to a NINA by Jan,really if you look at the thermocline's which are now inching the cooler waters above 100m you have to wonder what the next CCKW/MJO will do to it,and even the ones afterwards still more neutral but still negative /neutral,it still looks like it has a chance to be more Nina pattern into winter.With the warm SST's off the west coast of Fl into east coast,the IMME would surely suggest an SER.Good news we have a few months to figure out if it's wrong ,could be right tho

I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing

MCS dropped down from Kansas into the the Valley today has been showing signs of tropical genesis into the Northern gulf for a few days.We'll have to keep an eye out the next few days,could be some decent rains upcoming anyways for some especially the Eastern Valley ,but alot of uncertainty right now for tornado potential and the track it takes

Enso took a hit the last pass of MJO and CCKW.Still looks Nino.The next MJO pass should/could possibly knock the snot out of it again especially with any decent CCKW

June is generally a quiet month,then gets even more so the next couple months. http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/

Models were showing a drying period this week now it's not looking so dry,Looks more diurnal though after today,no big system like the past,right now anyways.

ENSO looks more West,central based right now with warmer waters down in the depth.Almost a "Modoki" look but not quite yet

Storms fell apart in our area but they did hit the OFB in the SW Valley,some good storms going on down S/West and South of us

Been awhile since we've seen these type MCS's come through in the summer time, unusual for us in the Valley.We certainly have not seen this in years.Looks like the pattern finally breaks down the first part of the work week then returns with more diurnal rain towards the end of the work week maybe.least this is what the Euro looks like

HRW did well this morning in Middle Tn,it showed the system weaken and break up before it got to Nashville.Weather Channel even showed a shelf North of Nashville this morning.Looks like a MCS coming from the Mo/Valley and lower OV is fixing to swing through later on,seen the SPC is fixing to throw up a possible T-Storm watch up soon.HRRR looks contaminated showing some PW's 2.35",should though see some potential strong storms as it seems to be hitting some better capes getting into Tn

Tornado Cell South of Hopkinsville

Probably one of the biggest watch boxes ive seen in years in the Valley

Mesoscale show sbcapes of over 6k in SW Ky,these storms should get really fired up shortly

Maybe we'll see a shelf today Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected to affect the mid Mississippi, Lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. Other severe storms may occur over parts of eastern Colorado and the Dakotas. ...Middle MS Valley into TN... A long-lived mature linear MCS is tracking across eastern MO into western IL. This activity has resulted in several reports of damaging winds, and will likely persist through the afternoon as it moves into portions of IN and northern KY. The air mass will become progressively less unstable farther east, so it is unclear how far up the Ohio valley the damaging wind threat will persist. But due to uncertainties and the significant mesoscale organization of the system, have expanded the MRGL/SLGT risk areas farther east into central/eastern Kentucky. A second mature linear MCS over western MO is immediately following the first, and has also produced several reports of wind damage. This line appears to be taking a slightly more southerly trajectory, and is tapping a very moist and very unstable air mass. It appears likely that this MCS will become dominant through the day and track across parts of southern MO, southern IL and eventually into KY/TN. Have expanded the ENH risk eastward into these regions to account for this scenario. It is unclear how far southeast this activity will maintain severe intensity. However, based on a few CAM solutions, have extended SLGT risk to the mountains of east TN for tonight.

Mountains make such cool pics when storms roll over them

That was the best storm we've seen here since the tornado a couple years ago.Some huge hail.I was picking my son up from gymnastics practice and my car was getting pounded,ran over a few lines,dodged some big branches.Few roads are blocked off i saw coming back home.Glad i left my radar on so i could capture the hail,but i have no clue how big it was,it wasn't over 3" for sure the radar estimated.We live right on the out-skirts of Nolensville,but basically it's still Brentwood,glad the power survived though.

Looks like that last KW did a job trying to upwell those cooler waters towards the surface,east of the IDL,still deep into the thermocline,at this point

Should see a warm up i'd think into 3.4 upcoming

Marginal risk day 3.I'm starting to think the best chance of severe storms will come after this.Wed-Thursday. both the GFS and Euro are showing LP system going into the Mo Valley.This should in turn strenghten the LLJ.Both models though show this,right now anyways some sort of shortwave,trough, coming through the Valley during this time.Trying to pin point shortwaves though at his time would be kinda tough

Maybe some decent storms for guys in the east Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POCKETS OF THE COUNTRY FROM WEST TX TO NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across pockets of the US from west Texas to coastal Carolinas. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Discussion... Latest short-range model guidance continues to suggest a notable mid-level speed max will dig southeast across the High Plains into the base of central US trough over northern MS by 13/00z. This feature will eject into the southern Appalachians during the overnight hours along with an attendant increase in large-scale forcing for ascent. Early in the period, convection is expected to be ongoing along a cold front across the lower MO Valley into northeast OK. Strong heating ahead of the wind shift is expected to aid buoyancy through steepening lapse rates across the Ozarks, primarily north of aforementioned digging jet. Will maintain 5% severe probs across this region due to dryer than normal boundary layer. A few strong storms may also develop along the surging front across portions of west TX where strong heating should remove CINH. Downstream, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will advance north across the eastern TN Valley around the western periphery of wedge front in the lee of the Appalachians. Latest guidance suggest surface heating should aid buoyancy along a corridor from northeast AL into southeast IN. As exit region of approaching jet affects this zone of instability, convection should readily develop by early evening. Given the strength of the sharpening trough, there is some concern severe probs may need to be raised to account for this increasingly dynamic system. As mid-level heights fall across the southern Appalachians during the latter half of the period, a surface wave should evolve along coastal front over southeast GA/southern SC. This feature should lift north-northeast and may allow more moist/buoyant air mass to return to eastern NC. Will introduce 5% severe probs to account for convection that should develop within an increasingly sheared environment during the overnight hours. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal