jaxjagman

ENSO looks more West,central based right now with warmer waters down in the depth.Almost a "Modoki" look but not quite yet

Storms fell apart in our area but they did hit the OFB in the SW Valley,some good storms going on down S/West and South of us

Been awhile since we've seen these type MCS's come through in the summer time, unusual for us in the Valley.We certainly have not seen this in years.Looks like the pattern finally breaks down the first part of the work week then returns with more diurnal rain towards the end of the work week maybe.least this is what the Euro looks like

HRW did well this morning in Middle Tn,it showed the system weaken and break up before it got to Nashville.Weather Channel even showed a shelf North of Nashville this morning.Looks like a MCS coming from the Mo/Valley and lower OV is fixing to swing through later on,seen the SPC is fixing to throw up a possible T-Storm watch up soon.HRRR looks contaminated showing some PW's 2.35",should though see some potential strong storms as it seems to be hitting some better capes getting into Tn

Tornado Cell South of Hopkinsville

Probably one of the biggest watch boxes ive seen in years in the Valley

Mesoscale show sbcapes of over 6k in SW Ky,these storms should get really fired up shortly

Maybe we'll see a shelf today Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected to affect the mid Mississippi, Lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. Other severe storms may occur over parts of eastern Colorado and the Dakotas. ...Middle MS Valley into TN... A long-lived mature linear MCS is tracking across eastern MO into western IL. This activity has resulted in several reports of damaging winds, and will likely persist through the afternoon as it moves into portions of IN and northern KY. The air mass will become progressively less unstable farther east, so it is unclear how far up the Ohio valley the damaging wind threat will persist. But due to uncertainties and the significant mesoscale organization of the system, have expanded the MRGL/SLGT risk areas farther east into central/eastern Kentucky. A second mature linear MCS over western MO is immediately following the first, and has also produced several reports of wind damage. This line appears to be taking a slightly more southerly trajectory, and is tapping a very moist and very unstable air mass. It appears likely that this MCS will become dominant through the day and track across parts of southern MO, southern IL and eventually into KY/TN. Have expanded the ENH risk eastward into these regions to account for this scenario. It is unclear how far southeast this activity will maintain severe intensity. However, based on a few CAM solutions, have extended SLGT risk to the mountains of east TN for tonight.

Mountains make such cool pics when storms roll over them

That was the best storm we've seen here since the tornado a couple years ago.Some huge hail.I was picking my son up from gymnastics practice and my car was getting pounded,ran over a few lines,dodged some big branches.Few roads are blocked off i saw coming back home.Glad i left my radar on so i could capture the hail,but i have no clue how big it was,it wasn't over 3" for sure the radar estimated.We live right on the out-skirts of Nolensville,but basically it's still Brentwood,glad the power survived though.

Looks like that last KW did a job trying to upwell those cooler waters towards the surface,east of the IDL,still deep into the thermocline,at this point

Should see a warm up i'd think into 3.4 upcoming

Marginal risk day 3.I'm starting to think the best chance of severe storms will come after this.Wed-Thursday. both the GFS and Euro are showing LP system going into the Mo Valley.This should in turn strenghten the LLJ.Both models though show this,right now anyways some sort of shortwave,trough, coming through the Valley during this time.Trying to pin point shortwaves though at his time would be kinda tough

Maybe some decent storms for guys in the east Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POCKETS OF THE COUNTRY FROM WEST TX TO NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across pockets of the US from west Texas to coastal Carolinas. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Discussion... Latest short-range model guidance continues to suggest a notable mid-level speed max will dig southeast across the High Plains into the base of central US trough over northern MS by 13/00z. This feature will eject into the southern Appalachians during the overnight hours along with an attendant increase in large-scale forcing for ascent. Early in the period, convection is expected to be ongoing along a cold front across the lower MO Valley into northeast OK. Strong heating ahead of the wind shift is expected to aid buoyancy through steepening lapse rates across the Ozarks, primarily north of aforementioned digging jet. Will maintain 5% severe probs across this region due to dryer than normal boundary layer. A few strong storms may also develop along the surging front across portions of west TX where strong heating should remove CINH. Downstream, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will advance north across the eastern TN Valley around the western periphery of wedge front in the lee of the Appalachians. Latest guidance suggest surface heating should aid buoyancy along a corridor from northeast AL into southeast IN. As exit region of approaching jet affects this zone of instability, convection should readily develop by early evening. Given the strength of the sharpening trough, there is some concern severe probs may need to be raised to account for this increasingly dynamic system. As mid-level heights fall across the southern Appalachians during the latter half of the period, a surface wave should evolve along coastal front over southeast GA/southern SC. This feature should lift north-northeast and may allow more moist/buoyant air mass to return to eastern NC. Will introduce 5% severe probs to account for convection that should develop within an increasingly sheared environment during the overnight hours. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal

Models are killing off the MJO to fast,typical bias with the ENSO,If this were into the summer time(More around July) we'd probably see a big warm up in the Valley.

NMME, basically looks weak Nino basinwide,probably would last through the winter.if it were to be right

ENSO is getting a second wind,those cooler waters that has been showing into the thermocline are getting mixed out. I suspect also as the MJO gets into the Maritime you might see these WWB get picked up and get stronger than what they have been showing towards the middle of June.Typical models wanting to kill off the MJO to quick with the ENSO

Waters have cooled towards the surface mainly into regions 3.But there still seems to be a decent WWB which should or could warm those surface temps back up upcoming

Jamstec shows Nino not lasting but a couple more months and basically neutral through the first part of winter.It shows BN for the 2m's for D-J-F for the Valley,more of a front loaded winter i'd imagine.There is alot of spread from it's ensembles,so i'd use this with caution The waters are getting cooler down into the thermocline,especially into region 3

Picked my son up from college Thursday morning.When i got close to the Tn/Al line i saw my first accident in Tn before the state line.As i went trough into N/ Al it was like a war zone.I saw cars flipped on their roofs,on their side,etc.etc,multiple accidents and some real bad looking ones.I wasn't going to stop and detour but there was some good storms that went through

Sure don't look as good today,glad i didn't start a thread.Best chance of severe storms would seem to be Thursday right now

Be interesting if the Euro is right into next weekend. Next Saturday the trough goes negative tilt with a potent shortwave coming through the Tn Valley,this would enhance an impressive LLJ if it were true

This period still looks good,still some timing differences along with some potential VBV and other junk as well.We'll probably need a short term severe thread upcoming, still some timing differences but all seems like right now we could be dealing with all severe modes upcoming,starting around mid week possibly into next weekend.