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NorthShoreWx

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  1. NorthShoreWx
    Got it. The actual NAM model soundings at h51 were all comfortably below freezing at all levels above the immediate surface (where they were 32 or 33).. Not sure how that map is calculated since the model soundings should drive what's drawn on the map and there is no way to derive sleet or zr from the sounding..
  2. NorthShoreWx
    Wasn't inferring it was an analog. Not sure there are many analogs for this one (as modeled) , but there are certainly examples where both areas got hit hard.
  3. NorthShoreWx
    March 2001 The discussion that started it all: http://www.northshorewx.com/HPC20010302.html And the ultra-modern 2001 hi-tech graphics:
  4. NorthShoreWx
  5. NorthShoreWx
    Precisely. NAM soundings IMBY show snow through hour 54. Then light sleet with a little drizzle for an hour or so after that and back to all snow for the duration. The mixed precip occurs with the dryslot.
  6. NorthShoreWx
    Soundings look comfortably all snow over NYC on 0Z/h51 Nam. What are you looking at? Edit Soundings indicate a brief mix with IP around hour 53, then all snow again afterwards. Maybe an hour of mix, but not at hour 51.
  7. NorthShoreWx
    I think we're on the same page. White Plains is farther inland than Huntington which is farther inland than Babylon. LIS shouldn't be treated as just another lake, but it can't hold a candle to the ocean.
  8. NorthShoreWx
    I've been doing the max depth thing, although I will wipe a board once a day in the AM , even during a continuing storm. That's the number I provide in spotter reports. I double it for posting here. To be fair that doc leaves open the possiblity for 6 hour wipes (i.e., at airports), so the issue remains confusing, I'm not sure if it is the latest and greatest however.
  9. NorthShoreWx
    Relatively common. A good way to think of it is the south shore folks are on the beach and the north shore folks are 10 or 15 miles inland. The LI Sound isn't insignificant, but it's a much smaller body of water and after October also colder. In 2015, a significant portion of the Sound froze over. if anything, it adds more snow than it detracts.
  10. NorthShoreWx
    You missed a good one. 14" total here including about 6" in 2 hours. Ended as some freezing drizzle on the north shore while it was plain rain in OC. Some of those guys were a combo of disbelief and less than happy with the topsy turvy outcome.
  11. NorthShoreWx
    There was definitely that potential, but we had a slow meltout right through the first days of March.
  12. NorthShoreWx
    We were, but it was over after groundhog day. 60" of snow in a month had a nice look to it:
  13. NorthShoreWx
    That's in the eye
  14. NorthShoreWx
    Oops, wrong season. But do loop that radar over the past 3 or 4 hours.
  15. NorthShoreWx
    Well, there's an SE wind at ACK, the latest ERC is almost complete and it looks like the center is gonna go right up Buzzards Bay Cool feature on the radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=OKX-N0Q-1-48-100-usa-rad
  16. NorthShoreWx
    12" here March 2001
  17. NorthShoreWx
    Def band over central LI modeled on the NAM around noon has my attention. Not holding my breath but it'll be worth a look out the window.
  18. NorthShoreWx
    Cool. I never saw the LSR before because we had no power for a couple of days. Two of those storm reports are from within a block or two of here. It was quite a scary wakeup alarm. It sounded like rocks being blasted at the house which I took to be hail, but some of it was branches blown out of trees.
  19. NorthShoreWx
    31 here this morning up on the ridge in north Smithtown. We've been as low as 29.8 this fall but it wasn't for long enough to kill much.
  20. NorthShoreWx
    Extensive damage on the north shore in August 2015 too. Insane storm (including hail) at 5AM. I forget if it was a microburst or a full blown Derecho. It affected a considerable area.
  21. NorthShoreWx
    Appropriate that you mentioned Elko as the example because I was thinking high desert as I was posting.
  22. NorthShoreWx
    Impressive diurnal swings for sure. Must be even more impressive in the center of the island, but here's the last 3 days at my hacienda about a mile from the sound: 11/7 43 76 11/8 44 77 11/9 42 77 This afternoon's 77 degree high a couple of hours ago is already down to 59 here. You can be sweating and then a half hour later around sunset be freezing.
  23. NorthShoreWx
    We can alway reminisce: WEATHER MAP DISCUSSION FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK..NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 400 AM EST WED NOV 22 1989 ...FIRST REAL SNOW EVENT ON THE WAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL GIVE US FAIR SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL BEGIN THE CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TURNING A SOMEWHAT TAMED WEATHER PATTERN INTO A RAGING EVENT LET LOOSE. THE STORM CENTER WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND SPREAD MOSTLY SNOW AHEAD OF IT. THEREFORE THIS WILL GIVE US OUR FIRST REAL SNOW EVENT THIS SEASON. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM WILL REACH THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THURSDAY POSSIBLY DUMPING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MANY AREAS BEFORE RUSHING TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOPEFULLY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE AS RAPIDLY AS PROJECTIONS CALL FOR..OTHERWISE IT MAY TURN INTO A MAJOR EVENT. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COLD THANKSGIVING DAY BUT TIS THE SEASON TO BE THmANKFUL. MJW
  24. NorthShoreWx
    Snow in October, winter is over. It just takes a flake. This applies to the entire sub-forum except the north shore.
  25. NorthShoreWx
    Sleet mixing in Smithtown.
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