michsnowfreak

Check out this satirical article from the March 4, 1954 Detroit Free Press. It was published the day after a snowstorm (after a mild winter). Some things never change!

You are very welcome! I've always been fascinated by climate data, the good and the bad. Obviously I'm a winter weather lover, but I have just as much fascination with the terrible winters as the good ones. Because it makes you wonder, geez what happened? Another great thing is I have looked up all of these things in the newspaper. I subscribe to the digital archives for the Detroit Free Press, so I can look at any newspaper since 1837. it's fascinating to see how weather events were covered back in the day. Just like now, anomalous events were certainly covered. The big difference however, is phrases like "where's winter?", "open winter", "winter heatwave" were seen plenty, but you never saw "climate change" as the blame for individual events. Check out this satirical article from the March 4, 1954 Detroit Free Press. It was published the day after a snowstorm hit following a mild winter.

Excellent post and I agree with everything you said. I mean, I know every stat imaginable for Detroit, but with xmacis it's SO easy to run stats for anywhere. I noted to one of my nyc friends that they had 6 consecutive winters in the 1950s with snowfall in the teens inches. An interesting trend I noticed here in those 3 decades (1930s-50s) is whenever you got a decent winter you were absolutely punished the following year with a nightmare. The 1931-32 winter was so warm and rainy that grass was growing, dandelions blooming, and trees budding in January. Only in March did winter pop in. (1881-82 and 1889-90 were other winters with well documented winter flowers blooming in MI due to warmth). 1936-37 is Detroits least snowy winter on record (12.9") and I believe it is Bostons as well. 1940s winters here were mundane as hell (tho not as warm as the 1930s or 50s). In the mild winter of 1948-49, almost all of the winters putrid 13.8" total snow fell in a 10-day period in late Jan/early Feb. 1952-53 holds the distinction of being the only winter on record Detroit didn't see a 3"+ snowdepth. And 1957-58 (a favorite of yours) was a winter of pennies here, mercilessly clawing it's way to an 18" season total, but holds the distinction of being the winter with the smallest "biggest storm" of the season at only 2.1". I mean I could go on, but you get the point. If ANY of the above happened today, i don't think I need to tell you were 100% of the blame would be placed. Hint- it wouldn't be the weather pattern.

Thanks. Although I don't consider it optimism or a stretch to say it's too early to discuss snowfall futility when we have over 85% of our seasonal snowfall statistically to come. Decembers stink this year was seen a mile away and the hope all along was hoping for a few timely threaded needles. But strong nino climo in Dec plus a hostile pacific made a shit December a given. The remainder of the cold season after new years, in my opinion, will be much more dependent on storm tracks and what not rather than worrying about no cold air.

I agree with there being 2 camps, but I would've worded them a little differently than you did. Guess you can put me in the softer acceptance camp. The "everyone is fucked" camp are those who have knee jerk reactions to everything and blame every unusual warm pattern solely on climate change. We literally just had how many harsh winters the previous 2 decades? Now you get a smattering of mild winters and the end is nigh. I know when discussing climate change it's taboo to discuss anything before 1970, but we had plenty of mild snowless winters in the 1930s-1950s. I will say that here in southeast Michigan (and I know you hail originally from Michigan tip), our winters have not warmed as much as on the East Coast. But when it comes to climate change, doesn't any weather enthusiast worry about their own backyard above anything else? I live in an area that is the definition of 4 distinct seasons, and how have my winter's changed? In the last 100 years, I've gained 1° in temperature (all from Dec) and about 5" of snow annually. Do I think some areas of the world are fucked because of climate change? Absolutely. But my area certainly is not one of them, and neither is New England. The biggest irony of all about climate change is that it's something people are supposed to want to change and prevent, but the biggest climate change enthusiasts on this board are the ones who have such an extreme excitement over a warming globe that any slowing or prevention of that would be nothing short of depressing for them.

My thing is, it's just so early. if it was late February and you were staring down futility, I could understand the sentiment (lol but the snow lover in me would not agree, I'd wish for a 1983 spring snowstorm to happen). Detroit's current 30 year average snowfall is 45.0" (which is actually the highest 30 year average on record due to all those good times and the 2000s-10s), and avg to date is 5.5". Which means we have 88% of the snow season to come.

Most winters, even the mildest ones, Chicago will easily see one or several stretches over 3+ days below freezing. Likewise, the chances of an entire month straight below freezing, even in the coldest winters, is extremely rare.

I browse this thread and rarely post in it, but I have to say kudos to you and you 100% do come across as that type of poster who is very objective. A few of the other posters in this thread are so biased towards what they want to see that I can be scrolling and just see their user name peak out and before even reading the post i know where it's going. Objective analysis is all I want, and you, @40/70 Benchmark @stadiumwave and a few others provide just that.

1936-37 with 12.9". So far Detroit is at 2.4". The last time we saw under 20" was 17.1" in 1968-69. It's a tall order to talk about futility so early, as the average last measurable snowfall is 4 months away.

I should have clarified that I meant locally, Detroit. Further west (upper midwest, northern plains) may be different.

Someone who is into every stat imaginable for the area, I can assure you that everything and anything is possible. A warm december does not mean it won't snow. Likewise, I'm confident in a much colder January and February, but that does not guarantee a lot of snow (of course even if we do get the dreaded CAD we have the lakes on our side). I don't think this December will come close to Dec 1881 or 2015 warmth, but it will certainly blend right in with the other mild decembers of strong ninos. Really nothing you can do but just ride the roller coaster that is the weather.

Not sure I buy that yet. much more promising in January and February still, but i'm not sure about Christmas week. Today was actually colder than avg. But ZZZ.

Unfortunately it's par for the course in a strong nino December.

And clippers

Today actually feels like winter. Certainly haven't noticed any grass growing lol. But unfortunately strong nino decembers are typically suck city. Just enjoy the holidays and hope the return of cold in January isn't too dry.

I have a book on weather in my area from.the 1830s to 1880s. Much like now they vary year to year, but indeed there were some very warm 1840s winters documented.

When talking trends....clearly the recent trend is Decembers suck and Februarys are the best month of winter. But when you plug in different time periods into xmacis, you can see what trends were when making time periods longer or shorter. For instance, the last 100 year trend at Detroit has shown ZERO warming in Jan-Feb so the entire warming of winter (which isnt much) has been December. POR (1874-2022) Dec warmed 2.1F, gotten 0.19” wetter & 0.7” snowier Jan warmed 0.4F, gotten 0.12” drier & 2.1” snowier Feb warmed 2.9F, gotten 0.36” drier & 2.8” snowier 100 years (1923-2022) Dec warmed 2.6F, gotten 0.25” wetter & 2.5” snowier Jan COOLED 0.5F, gotten 0.13” drier & 5.4” snowier Feb warmed 0.5F, gotten 0.21” wetter, & 7.3” snowier 50 years (1973-2022) Dec warmed 5.9F, gotten 0.40” drier, 6.5” less snowy Jan warmed 4.0F, gotten 0.17” wetter, 1.8” snowier Feb warmed 2.7F, gotten 0.64” wetter, 10.5” snowier! 30 years (1993-2022) Dec warmed 3.4F, gotten 0.70” wetter, 0.2” snowier Jan warmed 0.6F, gotten 0.73” drier, 2.2” less snowy Feb COOLED 1.0F, gotten 0.51” wetter, 12.6” snowier!

So cool, im taking a look!

Hard to tell. Locally, the 1870s were cold, but the 1880s had a few incredibly warm winters and several warm Decembers...so adding 1880s to the mix would warm an avg, not cool it (for Detroit). Picking data-sets can be called cherry picking, but it can also be a great way to see what the trends are. And right now, clearly the recent trend is that Decembers have gotten suckier but Februarys have gotten wintrier. In the past 100 years, there has been ZERO change in the Jan-Feb avg temp in Detroit, so the slight winter warming is entirely December. Again, this is for Detroit. But super easy to plug in ANY city provided they have no missing data. I know you didnt do the Burlington thing on purpose, but its one thing to be mindful of when checking data with a city we arent as familiar with (ive done it myself). POR (1874-2022) Dec warmed 2.1F, gotten 0.19” wetter & 0.7” snowier Jan warmed 0.4F, gotten 0.12” drier & 2.1” snowier Feb warmed 2.9F, gotten 0.36” drier & 2.8” snowier 100 years (1923-2022) Dec warmed 2.6F, gotten 0.25” wetter & 2.5” snowier Jan COOLED 0.5F, gotten 0.13” drier & 5.4” snowier Feb warmed 0.5F, gotten 0.21” wetter, & 7.3” snowier 50 years (1973-2022) Dec warmed 5.9F, gotten 0.40” drier, 6.5” less snowy Jan warmed 4.0F, gotten 0.17” wetter, 1.8” snowier Feb warmed 2.7F, gotten 0.64” wetter, 10.5” snowier! 30 years (1993-2022) Dec warmed 3.4F, gotten 0.70” wetter, 0.2” snowier Jan warmed 0.6F, gotten 0.73” drier, 2.2” less snowy Feb COOLED 1.0F, gotten 0.51” wetter, 12.6” snowier!

Xmacis. It's the same site Blue wave was using, but he included the first several years which had 90% missing data. So those average temperatures below 0 at Burlington were completely false to say the least. If you want to see how much temperatures have warmed or cooled over a certain time frame you set the parameter to have a regression line. https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

That first data set is completely bogus. Most of the data is missing through 1891, you would have to do 1892-1913, which comes up with the mean temperature of 24.5°. Decembers in Burlington have warmed 4.3° since 1892.

Fortunately the cfs accuracy is terrible this far out and changes daily.

I must have missed this. CheeselandSkies, do tell!

Keep in mind this is just official White Christmas is at New York City. And that would be the snow depth at 7am. Like all things in weather, stats have to stay consistent even if they don't make perfect sense every time. If the ground is bare at 7am but a snowstorm starts at noon, it's still not a white Christmas. If its raining with snowcover at 7am and that snow is washed away by 10am, it's still a white Christmas.

The upper midwest is so ridiculously cold I don't think they mind lol. Although they have also had cold anomalies in recent winters. Detroit winters warmed 1.7° in that span (the map has 2-3 but I'm sure its not expected to be perfect) but again that's more than the 100 year warming trend because you're leaving out the mild winters from the 1930s to early 1940s. As someone who lives in the Great Lakes, I can tell you that ice cover varies wildly year to year. In fact, they had near record ice cover on the Great Lakes in both 2013-14 and 2014-15. But another thing that goes into that is month to month temps, mainly wrt thickness of ice. I'm fine with my climate here, I just hate strong nino Decembers lol. Another interesting note. January hasn't warmed in the last 100 years here. December is most of the winter warming. Despite this white Christmas ratio has remained steady. in the last 100 years, in Detroit Decembers warmed 3.6° Januarys warmed 0.1° February's warmed 1.0°