michsnowfreak

Frosty Fall morning today. While the metro stayed in the mid to upper 30s all night, rural areas tanked in the 20s. This is a fairly common occurrence with early season cold nights in Fall (not as noticeable during late season cold nights in spring).

100%. JB is an absolute joke, but there are several here who are the warm version of him.

JB is a clown lol. Just because I like cold and snow...don't think I take an ounce of what he says seriously. The irony is that in recent years the winter has not followed November at all. But again, overall there's no definitive trend either way.

November has no correlation with winter. Idk how many times that has to be said, or how many times it has to be proven. Of course, Noll is simply a warm JB type. They post for one reason only. But kudos to you for replying to qqomega, since he already replied to himself.

Some just like to clutter threads by talking and replying to themselves, in this case with nothing that has to do with October

I understand, I just don't agree with it personally. Always been big into stats so that's just the way I've always ranked them.

I'm shocked Upton does that. I've never seen any other nws do that. Regardless of who does or does not use it, with all due respect I think it's an absolutely ridiculous way of ranking things. So let's say there's a 100 year sample and you finish with a mean temp of 50.5°. In the other 99 years, 18 years were 50.6° or warmer and 81 years were 50.4° or colder. But instead of saying it's the 19th warmest on record, you use dense ranking and several were ties. So instead you say it's the 14th warmest on record, even though 18 years were warmer. Any years that finish with the same mean temp as a previous year get penalized for doing so and thus cease to exist. . Ridiculous imo.

To clarify, I was referring to the model consensus, not just the euro. I don't buy the euros broadbrushed temp consensus. If it comes even close to verifying it will be unlike any other nina, with temp anomalies ranging from near normal in southwest Canada to a total range of just +0.5-1.5° in the entire eastern third of the country.

There is a centuries old saying "what happens in November the winter will remember", so I think that's where that idea generally comes from. I cannot speak for the Northeast, but I'm sure it's similar to here in that there's no definitive correlation between November and the winter. In fact, in more recent years, it's been more the opposite. 8 of the past 12 Novembers here have been colder than avg. But again, don't want to get too carried away with that either. Bottom line...Novembers weather does not excite or worry me in terms of how/if it will continue into winter.

2007-08 was such a banner winter in the Great Lakes...I knew it wasn't as good to our south, but I didn't realize it was that extreme until more recently.

Actually there still are and will be colder than normal winters, so when that happens It will be interesting to see how the models and the pros do with the forecast. This winter could be a good test with a pretty decent consensus forming for colder than normal anomalies developing in Canada as winter progresses....how far into the northern US they will spread is a bigger question mark.

Lmao what an absolute joke of a map. Id love to know how its generated (tho ben noll does tend to be the opposite of a JB-type). Euro DJF forecast for my area is +1.0C to +1.5C with avg precip. The +0.5C to +1.0C line is just to my north, and the wetter than normal winter is just to my south in OH. So yeah, Ill take the over on that map.

im skeptical of a mild/warm December, at least here.

Oh ok that explains it. Definitely not a fan of Dense-Ranking. It gives a completely inaccurate assessment.

Exact same here - 1.50". Was not expecting it. INCREDIBLE Fall weather this week. Great for the Fall color show.

Did you omit years? Looks like 2024 was 12th warmest at Boston (tied with 2 other years). Summer averages are not as wide ranging as winter. This summer would only be +1.9 using 1961-90 norms.

It's an outlier for sure.

Absolutely. Madison to Chicago to Detroit corridor had 60-100" of snow in the non-lake-snowbelt areas in 2007-08. I went to the upper peninsula in Mar 2008 (pic below) and the snow depths were insane. Meanwhile didn't nyc struggle to get 10"? In El ninos on the other hand somehow let the good storms go south despite it being a mild winter.

Absolutely perfect crisp, clear Fall weather for playoff baseball in Detroit tonight!

Thats me. Im more about snow than temps. But Its near unanimous from every model that below avg cold will get into Canada in winter. So I'm not concerned one bit.

I was really thinking a snowy December for here, and still kind of am. Many ninas had December as the best winter month, Feb as the worst, but the models are going for the exact opposite, more in line with recent trends of Dec being the worst and Feb the best. I still don't know what to fully think,.but am still liking the look of this winter here.

Fwiw, the Euro DJF temp departure for the entire northeast and southern Lakes is +1 to +1.5°C, with 0 to + 1°C for the upper midwest. It's cooler than the Sept run, although unrealistically too broadbrushed.

With the weather this week colors should explode. I'm headed to the UP tomorrow thru Wed!

Same here...2010s were the snowiest decade on record. The 2000s just narrowly miss being the 2nd. The increase in snowfall since the mid 20th century gas been undeniable. This was exactly my point. The pattern doesn't get enough credit. It's not like cc just popped up out of nowhere 9 years ago...I remember during our incredible run of winters many were quick to point out it doesn't mean cc isn't happening, there's a difference between weather and climate. Well that works both ways. I don't know what the climate will be when I'm long gone, could be a rainforest or an ice age who knows...but i have no worries about MI winters not being winters in my lifetime.

Another interesting thing to add...since the 15-16 super nino, while the winters have been mild, (and it was made even more annoying by the record snowy stretch that it just followed), we have set a slew of early and late season snow records/quirks: ~cold/snowy Novembers ~largest Nov snowstorm on record (Nov 11, 2019) ~most consecutive days in a row with May snow (5) May 8-12, 2020 ~3 consecutive years (2020, 2021, 2022) saw a snowstorm between April 17-21 drop 2-6" on the area ~snowiest Halloween on record (2023) That's just Detroit. You see the snowgasm south Buffalo has been enjoying. And there have been a few very impressive record arctic shots as well, showing the cold is there. The thing is, warming climate or not, the snow season is very long from 1st to last flake. And we all can use the added moisture to our benefit IF/WHEN the pattern works out. And this goes for you too. It's a different climate but don't think for one second that an absolutely massive moisture laden bomb can't bury NYC in feet of snow. Just a decade ago everyone was having snowy winter after snowy winter. That's not that long ago. There are many factors at play, including enso and changes in climate, but the overall hostile nature of the pattern, especially for the east coast, doesn't get nearly enough credit for whats happened in recent winters imo. If below zero temps and -30° to -40° wind chills can pop in for a visit during one of the warmest winters on record (see Jan 2024), the east coast can get a good snow season. Pattern just needs to shake up.