michsnowfreak

Cool and breezy. Another Fall like day to end May.

Yes, and im fine with it. Getting through May with no heatwaves is always a bonus, makes the uncomfortable season shorter.

Another cool gray day here. Usually the 2nd half of May is when I start running the AC, at least periodically, but this year its either been the heat running or windows open. Zero complaints from me.

2009-10 was decent here. Excellent February. Season snowfall was 46.1" imby and 43.7" at DTW, but 27" of that fell in Feb. Shut off, as you said, in March. In fact, Feb 27, 2010 ties w/ 1946 for earliest last measurable snow on record, though the snowpack lasted into the first third or so of March. Definitely about as cold a winter as you'll see in a strong nino. But I know it was a shitty winter in Toronto and I think Maine. The main thing about 2009-10 getting forgotten here is that it was basically an average snow season in a streak of great winters. The seasonal snowfall at DTW for 2007-08 thru 2010-11 was 71.7", 65.7", 43.7", 69.1". Now 1957-58? Just gross. It's the 9th least snowy winter on record (18.0"). Basically a mild wet December and a cold dry Jan/Feb. Mid Feb was bitterly cold and white, but the peak snow depth all winter (mid Feb) was 3". Also, 1957-58 holds the distinction of being the only winter in the entire climate record to not have a 24-hr snowfall of 2"+. There were several in the 1.7-1.9" range.

Bundling up for tonights Tigers game. October baseball weather on Memorial weekend.

It did. First time in several decades actually.

Detroit vs International Falls May avg temp update. DTW: 58.3F INL: 56.2F

Fair enough. But people do it anyway lol. They get mad when a snowstorm misses or underproduces and start talking about spring or severe. The best thing about weather is that anyone can wish for whatever they want, but no one has any control over it!

Just hearing a POSSIBILITY of 2013-14 is orgasmic. A weak knock off would still be a fantastic winter.

Agree. But this kind of weather helps, delaying the heat as long as possible. I dont mind summer when its shorter lol.

I feel like this past winter, which was a pretty cold but quieter than normal winter for much of the eastern half of the country, was not the best example for the potential that nyc holds. It couldve easily snowed more. We get snow often here regardless of the overall pattern, and the Lakes help out with tons of mood flakes. Detroit has not seen a sub-20" winter since 1968-69. From November to April this past winter, 80 days saw a T or more of snow. I certainly dont ever want a torch winter, but outside of the freak torch winters, ultimately it is the storm tracks and activeness (or non activeness) of the pattern that dictates how high or low the final snow number will be, moreso than the temps. The temps are much more indicative of how much snowcover and ice cover the winter will have, and that is a direct influence on how the general public will perceive the harshness of the winter. Im not expert on east coast climate, but the noreasters are what everyone knows about. Im not sure about all the other systems that typically work and dont work for the area, but there has to be more to it than just feast or famine noreasters. Its a much warmer base climate than the Great Lakes to begin with, and always has been, so any rise in temps is not a help. However, I think you are also overlooking the potential cold that can be driven into the country. While it may be a smaller area, we have had brutal arctic blasts nearly every winter (even in '23-24 there was a doozy) that are plunging temps way below normal in areas that already average way colder than nyc. @Stormchaserchuck1 has commented on this cold before as well. For whatever reason though, this cold has continuously been dumping well to the west of the east coast, leaving the east coast with more so scraps of what ends up just seasonable cold. Naturally these blasts are heralded in with winter storm systems. Again, those systems miss nyc. Jostle up the pattern a bit, and things pour in more east, youre going to get more snow.

Fortunately I dont care what most like or want lol. I could do without the rain, but Im always a fan of cool temps.

Since when does preferred weather make you sick in the head? I think its sick in the head to spend winter in a tropical climate, but I dont take to insults

Gray skies, sweater weather and fall feels in late may. No complaints here!

All good points. There is way, WAY too much focusing by some on how much a temp has risen at any given location than there is to the overall pattern. The snow season spans a minimum of half the year for most northern locations, same as it always has. The key is the pattern, the indices, the storm tracks, the available moisture. Its actually gotten comical how some have tried to push the record snow from a decade ago as being in the far distant past or in a different era.

I can't wait for one of those winters where the coldest anomalies on the globe spill into the US, giving a brutal winter and TCC and company will distraughtly be posting how warm it is elsewhere on the globe.

True. Hopefully the Pacific is more favorable.

Interesting. I have heard some hedge towards cold neutral and some warm neutral. For me, either is fine because anything from weak nino to weak nina usually can produce good winters. But since its so early, Im wondering what, if anything, we can put off the table? I remember in years past some were so hellbent for months on a strong Nino or nina but when it actually happened it was weak. So far, it seems to be nearly unanimous that a strong ENSO one way or the other isnt happening. Or at least thats the way Im reading into it haha. But what are the odds a strong or moderate event catches everyone off guard?

I dont disagree that its almost unheard of to get such a cold winter from such a strong Nino, but "if" we get a cold winter in the conus is such a ridiculous statement, unless you mead CONUS-WIDE. Obviously cold winters will happen. And to be honest, outside of the rarity that was the late 1970s, if you live in the east you would usually WANT the west to be warmer than avg. It would likely create a greater likelihood of some good storms.

You just dont stop. I know a met (used to post here, doesnt anymore like so many others) who worked for DTX from 1974-2010 and he always talked about the increasing UHI at DTW. You dont seem to understand that regardless of the surrounding area, when an airport expands and becomes a concrete jungle that it didnt used to be, it will affect particularly nighttime temps. Funny you didnt bring up Detroit City like you sometimes like to when it fits your theme. The avg min temp at DET is 1.0F warmer but at DTW it is 3.9F warmer for the two periods you unsurprisingly chose. But the max temp is identical at both- 2.4F warmer. Its been noted multiple times by people that actually live here and observer the weather how the lows at DTW were insane in the 1960s-70s compared to surrounding area. Although, as I recall, before you hijacked this thread and veered OT into your routine 1961-90 circle jerk, the conversation wasnt about temps, it was about snow (remember, you incorrectly said 1990s were "way" snowier). Why did you not include the snowfall for those same periods? I guess I will have to. No site changes or observation measurement changes at DTW or FNT (cant say for ARB). DTW snowfall 1961-1990: 41.5” 2001-2030: 45.8” FNT snowfall 1961-1990: 48.9” 2001-2030: 54.8” ARB snowfall 1961-1990: 42.3” 2001-2030: 60.8”

So youre thinking that means we are in for an ENSO neutral winter of some sort?

And here we go YET AGAIN highlighting the coldest stretch of winters on record. For starters, DTW wasnt even the official climate site for Detroit until 1966-67. It was so rural that as has been pointed out ENDLESS times it was often a cold spot in the region with amazing radiational cooling (similar to present day Ann Arbor)...its no longer the case. All you have to do is compare the difference in temps between DTW and several other sites from the 1960s/70s and then 2010s/20s and you will see the margin is much smaller now. But these assertions about '90s winters lately are just WILD to me. The 1990s winters were EASILY the worst decade of winters of my lifetime, both the warmest AND least snowy (2020s TBD). 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s were far superior - and guess what, 2020s are only half over. I will comment on them in 2030 when they are over and given the same playing field as the rest. As it stands now, of FULL decades, the warmest winters on record are the 1990s, followed by the 1950s then 1930s. AVG DJF WINTER TEMPS & annual snowfall - Detroit 1870s – 25.2 (*1874-79) 1880s – 27.6F - 43.1" 1890s – 26.5F - 42.7" 1900s – 24.9F - 46.3" 1910s – 25.5F - 39.7" 1920s – 25.8F - 46.1" 1930s – 28.3F - 32.9" 1940s – 27.0F - 27.8" 1950s – 28.6F - 37.8" 1960s – 26.2F - 31.8" 1970s – 24.8F - 45.6" 1980s – 25.9F - 45.2" 1990s – 29.2F - 37.9" 2000s – 27.7F - 45.3" 2010s – 28.2F - 49.9" 2020s – 30.5F - 35.5" (*only thru '24-25)

It is surprising esp since its only since 1970 but again, that is for the CONUS. Here, 1981-82, 2013-14 & 2014-15 all rank in Detroits all-time top 20 coldest winters (not just since 1970).

Highs in the 50s/lows in the 40s dominate the week here. Going to the Tigers game Friday, definitely hoodie weather. Should warm into the weekend to 60s/40s but no heat in sight.