michsnowfreak

Also, remember bluewave keeps talking about the nation as a while. Which is fine. But has nothing to do with temp departures at individual locations. The SW was much warmer than avg. It was very cut and dried here, Dec was warmer than avg, Jan & Feb were colder than avg. And this is true even when using the entire POR averages. Wasnt record cold by any means, but it was steady cold much of the time. The winter as a whole was very "mid" with no months anywhere near record warm or cold. DETROIT Dec- 33rd WARMEST of 152 Jan- 52nd COLDEST of 152 Feb- 69th COLDEST of 152 NEW YORK CITY Dec- 59th WARMEST of 156 Jan- 65th COLDEST of 156 Feb- 54th WARMEST of 156

The weather had been quite pleasant for the climatologically hottest time of the year, so its hard to believe what's lurking. Won't come close to being a heatwave, we will just get one day over 90, but it will be interesting to see just how the dews actually get. For one, we are the northern fringe, and for two models often overdue dews, but its going to feel terrible regardless.

Dec & Mar were definitely what put the orange/yellow on those maps.

Just adding to this, I found my paper where I had this data... In 145 years of record, using the POR-average of 41" of snow... There have been 10 winters on record that finished with above avg snowfall WITHOUT a 6"+ storm. The last time this happened was 1996-97. The snowiest of these was 55.1" in 1984-85 (biggest storm 5.5"). The lowest "biggest storm" of these was 1996-97 when the biggest storm was only 4.7" despite 43.1" total snow. There have been 22 winters that did feature a 6"+ storm but still finished with below avg snowfall. The last time this happened was 2006-07. The least snowy of these winters was 20.0" in 1982-83 (biggest storm 7.3") and the highest storm in this dataset was in 1932-33, when despite a 9.0" storm only 25.8" fell all winter. There has never been a winter with a storm over 9" that finished below avg in snowfall. Id be curious to know of all of NYC winters that finished above the longterm avg snowfall, what was the winter with the lowest "biggest storm of the season" where they could still finish above avg in total? Or how big if a storm theve gotten where winter still finishes below avg. These may be good @donsutherland1 questions.

This is one of the biggest differences between the Great Lakes and SNE/east coast. The reliance on a monster storm to make or break the season in terms of percent of average. Due to the more frequent snowfalls but less crippling storms, an entire seasons pattern is the bigger indicator here. Don't get me wrong, a 10"+ storm happens and you can all but lock in an above avg snow season, but you can also have a great season if its active even tho the biggest storm is like 6-8". In a place like NYC a monster storm (2016 for example) can make what wouldve been an otherwise crap season an above normal one with one swing of the bat.

I couldve used it. Summer rainfall is so much more sporadic than snow or for that matter rain in other seasons. Ive had 2.26" in july but nothing measurable in a week. The one day my area got a downpour that most of the rest of the area missed, however the 2 events that have made headlines for local flooding in parts of SE MI have left me high and dry.

I personally am a fan of using 30 year normals. Its been done that way for over a century, updated every 10 years. Obviously i am a huge fan of old climate data (when they used to write in the books with a pen, complete with a description of the day, that can't be beat). Heck i look at old data more than new data. But i think for normals the 30 year are a good marker. It accounts for recent decadal change of temp, precip, and snow. Its always fun to use the period of record too, it shows what longterm things have changed more than others, and certainly you can use moving averages or regression lines to see the ups and downs. Theres always some human error element but threaded records for stations that have moved slightly are still very accurate. But what i DONT like is starting something at a random picked year. I got so sick of seeing "since 1970" nonsense that I decided, hey I can pick a starting point too, lets go back exactly 100 years. Didn't go over well with a few lol. Bottom line for this area, 1970s-80s were full of abnormally cold winters, just as 1930s-50s were full of abnormally mild ones. Picking a starting point like 1930 or 1970 is going to automatically allow a predictable outcome. Either use POR or current 30 year normals. If anything, hating on 30 year normals is doing a disservice to the cc that some are so passionate about. We've seen multiple times when an expected warm period becomes colder than normal and then you get "well if it was the 1800s it wouldn't be colder than normal". OK. Well. I got 37.3" snow in 2022-23 which is below avg. If it was 1960 that was slightly above avg. That's irrelevant.

The mcs really broke/dried up by the time it got here. Just a trace of rain.

That's the beauty of meeting in person. We were as friendly as can be.

I suspect meeting in person and discussing weather/climate would throw some unexpected surprises at people, for the better. Its a little more difficult when you are interpreting tone in typed words. Again I had no ill intent towards you. Years ago I met Alek (a lakes poster) at a Tigers/Cubs game and he wasn't anything like it expected (he was way nicer).

You likely will see some snow but places to your north see much more.

You are welcome. Where are you located?

It depends what your asking. Snow always falls most frequently in the Great Lakes regardless of pattern. If you are asking which region stands to do the best relative to their average, its probably hard to say this early.

Most of your posts have a bias but are at least decent material. This one is not. Did it ever occur to you that everyone doesn't care that the earth is warming? I'd bet any money that the people in this forum who care the least are actually the one who live the most green, planet friendly lives. It isnt fair that hes tired of hearing the same crap over and over? Its downright bullying at times in here. Someone can reminisce about a past event of any kind and they get a cc lecture. Its gotten that bad in here. And if you think that every region is warming at the same rate then you really DONT understand climate as much as you claim to. With NYC last winter was much colder than you anticipated, so the focus was really on lack of NYC snowfall. Not that I blame you. Because the bottom line for most winter lovers is SNOW not temps. Which is why I could not care less how much this station or that station has warmed in 150 years (or the "quality controlled" maps which show more warming than any individual station). I care about snow and snowcover. And if youre looking for a decrease in those, I suggest either using old coop data with lots of missing data or perhaps using a unique dataset 1880-2025 which cuts out 1930-1970 so it will show a decrease in snowfall in SE MI. In fact, using the Ann Arbor data that was brought up (since its a crime to use a threaded first order station if its moved), days with snowcover have INCREASED since records began. I am not trying to sound mean but it comes across very over the top sometimes.

Perfect post! Its why so many dont post here anymore. Its so tiresome when posting FACTUAL data for MY area I get responses from people who dont live here posting unrelated graphs (always love the smoothed out random county average maps that come from some unknown "smoothing" and "quality control"). I discuss actual events/facts/trends for certain winters and then get a response with an unrelated chart of a mean temp. Happens every time. Its nauseating. Its like you have to stroke the climate change egos by mentioning it in EVERY SINGLE POST. And God forbid you post something about recent cold/snow and/or a warm/low snow winter of the past. Prepare for the wrath. I grew up with an interest in weather for my region. Not in a gridded anamoly for the earth.

Interesting. Both 1916-17 & 1917-18 were cold winters here with slightly below avg snowfall. I'd bet anything it was a suppressed storm track with significant snow to my south.

1916-17 is one of the few winters that I've never looked too deep into. Just glancing it looked cold and white, with snowfall a bit below avg but good enough for lasting deep winter.

Sweet Jesus what a dataset lol. He must be trying to get a jump on JBs subscribers.

Excellent post Don. Every discussion on climate does not always need to come back to "well the mean temperature rose...". More than one aspect of weather can be discussed. I never said great lakes winters havent warmed since the 1870s. But the warmth is not nearly as extreme other locations. As I've said I've studied Detroits weather climate for decades. Im talking newspaper stories, details in the LCD forms, anecdotes in the old weather books, etc not just the raw numbers on xmacis. These graphs illustrate well the weaker winters of the 1930s-60s locally. No matter what way you slice it or which dataset you use, those decades strongly lacked extreme cold and extreme snow. For instance, let's say i was born in 1930. By my 40th birthday, I would have seen far less severe winter weather than I had seen by being born in 1983 like I actually was. I dont know what the reasoning was or why some are so against discussing it. But it was a multi-decadal regime that really differed from the decades before and since. The radical change to harsh 1970s winters was like a different climate. Based on what journal data is available, I suspect had official weather records started earlier, say 1830, we wouldve seen a trend of even less snow and more extreme cold low temps. A snow lover is only going to want it so cold in this climate zone. As for extreme cold? Coldest I've felt in my life was Jan 2014 and Feb 2015. Those winters are infamous for the severity. But in the ensuing milder winters since 2016, there have been multiple shots of severe cold as well. And that was where this discussion started. Talk about warming climate all you want, but dont act like severe cold shots dont still happen. Lastly, as for the threaded record moving around. That happens in most places. There are obvious differences in different places, but also, you can't compare a place in 2025 and assume it was the exact same in 1935. When the weather bureau/weather service moves a station, all of the bells and whistles go with it. So essentially, since Detroit city airport stopped being the official site in the 1960s its basically a coop station with an unmamned max/min thermometer, an inaccurate tipping gauge and no snow measurements.

No YOU are something else. I picked a round figure- 100 years. Using the same graphs you always use. This is so rich coming from someone who goes into everyones subforum (where most ignore you) with the most random data for the most random starting points. You just pick based on whatever gives you what you want. One minute youll use POR the next you will decry it. I never said I threw out data, I brought up how the 1880s data seemed low at this coop station. Meanwhile, you ALWAYS have a problem with older data you dont like and are always discounting it. See, ive studied my areas climate data for years. You just plug in numbers for anything anywhere to find what you want. Since you got so offended that I questioned anything about the Ann Arbor data, you must LOVE how their winter temps have remained pretty steady for decades and snowfall has MORE THAN DOUBLED since records began.

Very pleasant day for the dog days today. The air is cleaner, the sky clearer, and morning low in the 50s only rebounded to low-humidity 70s. Very depressing that it isnt going to last.

Remember this is a coop station. The data is suspiciously cold. One thing that IS good about stations like this (coop stations, unmoved for 140+ years) is that you can still see the "good" and "not good" winters by comparing Ann Arbor to nearby Detroit. I have noted on multiple occasions that locally December has warmed the most, January not at all, and February slightly over the last 100 years. And Ann Arbor is yet another station that shows this. An increase of 3.4F in Dec, 0.0F in Jan, 1.5F in Feb. Avg January temperature regression the last 100 years (1926-2025) Toledo: -0.8F Detroit: -0.4F Flint: -0.1F Ann Arbor: 0.0F Saginaw: +0.3F

Nearly all first order sites have had multiple moves in their period of record. Its completely normal and its done for the sole purpose of making the temps more equal/representative. Using the official threaded data is not "mixing". Ann Arbor is NOT a first order station, but it is one of the few that has a continuous record in the same location dating back to the 1880s. As said, when they are not a first order station, I use all elements (temp, precip, snowfall) with caution. Especially pre-1920. But since you brought it up, I notice you didnt include snowfall. Ann Arbors snowfall has more than doubled since records began - thats one hell of a regression line up (see attached). 26.3" to 56.3" I also note how relatively consistent Ann Arbors winter temps have been the last 100 years: 1930s- 27.3F 1940s- 26.3F 1950s- 27.7F 1960s- 26.3F 1970s- 24.9F 1980s- 26.0F 1990s- 27.9F 2000s- 27.4F 2010s- 27.5F Last 100 years avg: 26.9F, 2024-25: 26.6F. No, 2024-25 was not a "warm" winter. However, the ENTIRE point of my post, which as usual was turned into something different once the usuals got involved, was the discussion how regardless of a warming climate, severe winter cold shots are still occurring. Since the 1890s, this is how many times each decade saw a temp of -10F or colder: 1890s- 12 1900s- 8 1910s- 13 1920s- 4 1930s- 5 1940s- 2 1950s- 0 1960s- 3 1970s- 8 1980s- 11 1990s- 4 2000s- 1 2010s- 12 So the 2010s saw the most -10F or colder temps since the 1910s. In fact, the 2010s saw more such temps than the 1920s-50s or 1930s-60s COMBINED.

Its a very seasonable day today for mid July. Sunny, low 80s, not humid. But I still hate it. Just not made for 80+

I get that vibe too - some seem to imply that the NYC climate was wintrier in days of yore than it really was. Funny thing, when you look at annual 1"+ snowcover days for NYC since 1920, the 1930s, 1950s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, & 2000s were all more bare than the 2010s. 1920s- 29 1930s- 21 1940s- 32 1950s- 15 1960s- 28 1970s- 25 1980s- 19 1990s- M 2000s- 20 2010s- 27