michsnowfreak

The overnight system brought just 0.08" of light rain, but gusty winds and temperatures rising into the low 40s evaporated our Winter wonderland into piles and a few patches.

I played around a bit on xmacis, looks like its happened 3 times... 1932 2012 2020 1932 Detroit hit 10"+ on Nov 16 and Chicago was at 0.6". Season finished at 25.9" Detroit, 28.1" Chicago. 2012 Detroit hit 10"+ on Dec 29 and Chicago was at 0.8". Season finished at 47.7" Detroit, 30.1" Chicago. 2020 Detroit hit 10"+ on Dec 25 and Chicago was at 0.9". Season thru Dec 27 is 12.2" at Detroit, 0.9" Chicago.

After a surprise 3.6" of Christmas snow and seeing how much the models struggle/change run to run, I don't think ill ever feel fully confident of any scenario in any event.

Where was this pic taken from? Neat pic.

Weenie snow pile at the mall lol. Gray and cold winter day today following Christmas snow.

lake effect is amazing

Finished with 3.6" of powder. Bit of blowing and drifting and very cold, as temps hovered in the upper teens to low 20s the entire event. What a Christmas treat. Since it was a model fail until midday Christmas Eve it was unexpected by most. But it fell on the one day most wouldn't mind. As much as 4-7" was reported near Port Huron. While much less fell west of Eastern MI, it still was an unexpected white Christmas for most with between a dusting and 2". I am at 12.9" on the season. Its been an odd season in that the eastern and southern suburbs of Detroit have seen much more than the north and west suburbs. DTW saw 3.0", putting them at 12.2" on the season.

not sure but xmacis may help. its pouring snow now in the last band.

What a fun surprise event in eastern Michigan. Absolutely postcard Christmas weather. Snowing beautifully all day, probably around 3" now. With temperatures in the upper teens to low twenties it's pure powder.

Thank you and Merry Christmas! This is one of those dime a dozen snowfalls, but to fall starting on Christmas Eve night makes it magical. The excitement of kids waking up to fresh snow and Santa has come 1.5" of powder and should see an afternoon uptick. Already 3.5" near port huron. they may get 6 after gfs had not a flake yesterday at this time.

it was too east with the snow band tonight, the last model to correct west. but yes, they all seem to struggle

the gfs has seemed to have the poorest performance lately

Snow began to fall around 10:45 p.m. and quickly accumulated. What a Christmas treat and yet another example of how models cannot be trusted until the last minute. For as frustrating as the season has seemed so far, the November 30th snowstorm started as I was out cutting down a christmas tree, I had an outdoor christmas event the night of December 16th during that snowfall, and now a Christmas Eve night snowfall has begun which may surprise many locally by tmrw.

DTX upped forecast to snow (not snow likely) and up to 1" tonight and 1" tmrw.

I meant locking in in terms of what areas get hit and what areas don't. if a storms missing us we don't pay as close attention, but for those getting hit by the storm location matters.

nothing on long range models ever locks in anywhere lol

GHD 1 in 2011 DTW got 10.1" which everyone complained about because it underperformed. We had 6" on the ground before the storm. Then on the 5th they called for sunny skies and the area got 4-6". Then, on Feb 20, they called for 1-3" changing to ice instead we got 10.2" of snow. Yet some complained for years bc GHD1 underperformed. Thats how spoiled we were in the 2007-2015 era lol. 2009-10 DTW had 43.7", thanks mostly to Feb. It was not a bad winter here, I can remember you guys being screwed. 2011-12 sucked with 26.0" but it was the only bad apple in a fantastic 8 year stretch. It was nowhere near the alltime futility either (12.9" in 1936-37).

in Feb 2011 we had two 10" storms and a 5" storm. in 2010 we had a 9" storm and I think a 5" storm. no doubt Feb has had the got hand! 2018 also had a 9" storm and 14" snowpack. 2017 the Feb torch disparity is interesting. Did Toronto have any of that snow Feb 1st? because Detroit had a 4" clipper Jan 31.

you know me, have to add pics. See corresponding # to pic

I suppose the longer they go without snow doesn't hurt to watch, but considering they can get snow for 4 more months, it'll be tough to do. The all time futility for Chicago is 9.8" in 1920-21.

Interesting. The extended cfs maps which are equivalent to giving a 3 year old a crayon, are known for their constant changing from run to run (hell you can see record warmth and record cold for a certain timeframe from run to run)...but I've noticed some real cold showing up towards late January and early February. This is the dead of winter so anomalous cold will be very wintry.

I don't fully understand the NAO because its a lot more gray area than the east coast. At least for big storms. Some of our big storms are +NAO, some -NAO. but it would be nice to get into a classic -NAO clipper pattern

if you are talking about seasonal futility for Chicago...the 3rd day of astronomical winter is wayyyyyyy too early to think of that. As in, 2+ months too early. If you are simply talking "least snow thru this date" thats another story.

MSP frequently was missed during some of the bigger winters of the lower Lakes last decade. it all ebbs and flows. MSP got 44" in 2007-08.

Good point. Weather weenies are often of the "what have you done for me lately" mindset.