michsnowfreak

Been a mostly gray May, and while it is my least favorite time of the year, I do enjoy the May flowers. Took this yesterday.

Persistent Negative NAO is much better for the east coast. We would probably get a lot of cold and dry if a negative NAO persisted all winter.

Jokes aside, I was just thinking the other day of how even here, most deciduous trees have full grown green leaves for only about 4.5 months on average. Chop a solid month off of that for the upper peninsula, and it's amazing how many deciduous trees really do thrive and grow well in those conditions up north.

Took these spring scenes May 3rd. I do find some beauty in my least favorite season lol.

Pictures of some flooding near DTW on May 1st after 3.20" of rain fell quickly overnight. Took these pics on the way home from work.

Whats funny is that as of 8pm Apr 30 Detroit wasnt in even in top 20 wettest Aprils. Then 4 hours of downpours later, it was 3rd wettest

I am less than 8 miles east of DTW and i "only" got 1.64". I have seen Facebook posts of flooded basements and flooded streets, and i can confirm there was more flooded spots y DTW on the way to work.

High was 46 at Detroit. Very chilly and raw

You brought the sun with you lol. Though im sure itll be cold to a now southerner like you!

Just a trace of snow here. Mixed with the rain a bit late last evening then ended as snow. A trace still ties and supercedes the daily record for both Apr 27 and Apr 28 lol.

What's funny is that if any snow mixes in, which still looks very likely, a trace would tie (and thus supersede) the daily record. That tells you how late in the season it really is.

Sunday was our big day of accumulation here. This was literally a 3 day storm in Southeast Michigan so it's possible that different things happened in both places, but I am positive of the daytime accumulation here because it was absolutely shocking to me.

So Detroit has one subpar Winter and that means hes not missing much? He missed 62" last Winter (i think he moved just before winter) and the avg this decade is like mid-50s. Even with the misses snow fell very often and there were multiple ice storms. My statement to powerball remains. He left a place where it snows all the time and goes to a place that can go a Winter without a single flake. I would not survive, he does not miss snow. We are not cut from the same cloth lol.

Actually i remember the exact opposite, at least here. Which was amazing. It snowed all afternoon Apr 23 into the overnight and we barely got an inch. Then heavy blinding snow hit during the late morning and early afternoon which is when most of the accumulation occurred, about 5 more inches. It then lightened in intensity by evening and though snow continued it hardly accumulated any more. Total snow here 6.7". Of course that is the exception not the rule. Obviously for the most part nighttime is a help in spring snows.

Wow lol we are definitely not cut from the same cloth haha. You've been down there 2 winters now?

Just curious, do you miss snow at all? I mean I would love to see snow tonight but it's the end of April so whatever happens happens. But going from a place where it snows often to a place where it almost never snows must be a shock to the system.

Yes 2012 was an agricultural disaster. There were frosts and freezes scattered throughout the month, including freezes at the end of April. There were a few snow flurries a few times that April but nothing of consequence, at least here. I remember in the fall of 2012, the price of local Apple cider was outrageous. Thank goodness that year was a huge anomaly, and actually most Springs since then have had late leaf outs.

I always like to compare stats to Chicago, though we will not see 4-8" in Detroit. Still, any measurable snow period would be only the 10th measurable snowfall this late, and 1"+ would only be the 5th time it has happened. If 0.2"+ falls, it will be the greatest snowfall this late in the season since 1923. For Detroit (since 1880) Biggest snowstorm April 25 or later: 6.0" - May 9, 1923 Latest 4" or more: 5.0" - May 21/22, 1883 Latest 6" or more: 6.0" - May 9, 1923 Latest 8" or more: 24.5" - April 6, 1886 4" or Greater (April 1 or later): May 21/22, 1883: 5.0" April 3, 1885: 4.0" April 6, 1886: 24.5" April 7, 1894: 6.0" April 3/4, 1903: 4.9" April 17, 1921: 4.5" May 9, 1923: 6.0" April 2/3, 1926: 5.6" April 9/10, 1942: 4.2" April 1/2, 1970: 4.2" April 5/6, 1982: 7.4" April 7, 2003: 4.9" April 23/24, 2005: 4.3" April 5/6, 2009: 7.2"

I was pleasantly surprised at how detailed the DTX forecast discussion was this morning. They lay everything out and the moral of the story is, very low confidence overall in what will happen here lol. They noted that being able to tap into more Lake superior air is going to increase wet bulbing in a portions of southern Wisconsin & northern Illinois, which is why there is higher snow impact there. Right now they are calling for 1 to 2" of accumulation possible here with 2 to 4" possible in southeast Michigans higher elevations. It's funny, Detroit averages 37 days per season with measurable snowfall and several dozen additional days with a trace. Snow falling is such a common occurrence in the Winter that you don't even notice flurries falling on a January day like you notice those first few flakes that flutter down in Fall. But it seems even worse now at the end of April. The mere possibility of measurable snowfall is causing quite a detailed analysis. Shows you how rare it is. The record snowfall for Apr 27 is a trace (2004) and Apr 28 is a trace (1977). Issued at 443 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2019 DISCUSSION... A real pressure cooker type forecast for later today as a late season, winter low pressure system is set to track through the southern Great Lakes region. The consternation centers directly on the critical thermal profile in the surface to 2000 ft agl layer amidst what is expected to be a high rate of precipitation. The temperature details of this environmental profile and timing of subsequent cold advection in this layer will ultimately determine the timing of precipitation type changes. There remains low forecast certainty with regards to the amount of snowfall that will occur this evening and tonight across Southeast Michigan. Early today...Clear skies are in place over the majority of Southeast Michigan with differential geopotential height rises and narrow surface ridge axis influencing the state. The exception is the northern Thumb northward through Lake Huron and northern Lower Michigan where opaque stratocumulus deck is in place. Satellite presentation suggests cold cyclonic flow the culprit with 875 mb temperatures of less than 5C a good delineation for the cloud. The cold low to midlevel air is forecasted to push to the south and east in quick order which is expected to take the cloud out of the area. No expectations of this cloud impacting Southeast Michigan. As a result, expecting full insolation early today which will impact temperatures. Warm Mos guidance was definitely noted and generally raised the consensus forecast a degree or two for most of Southeast Michigan. Highs today are expected top out around 50 degrees for many areas. Late afternoon...Steep, saturated isentropic ascent on the 315-319K equivalent potential temperature surfaces will bring a strong wing of warm air advection precipitation through portions of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the midday period, breaking out over far SW Lower Michigan between 18-21Z. Precipitation will begin to push into the cwa after 21Z as midlevel theta e ridge spreads directly across the area. Near surface flow is forecasted to remain light westerly which supports a fairly rapid onset to precipitation once column saturation finally hits. There is some dry air concerns in the lowest 6.0 kft agl, so kept PoPs at likely prior to 00Z for areas south of I 69. Early this evening...Survey of countless forecast soundings concludes that precipitation will begin as rain for all areas. Forcing for ascent will maximize lower in the column with main frontal forcing in the 800-600mb layer. This change of the dominant forcing will occur as the midlevel low pressure center favors the direct differential cyclonic vorticity advection corridor over the far southern cwa. Main takeaway from the sounding analysis is that precipitation changeover relies on a subtle cold advection event in the lowest 2000 ft agl sometime between 03-06Z. Thats where things get a little interesting. Went hunting through the averaged 1000-900mb layer plan view progs and identified a couple of items. 1. Light northwesterly flow will hold on over Southeast Michigan this afternoon which will provide a land mass modified air mass to the forecast area. The northern edge of this land modified air mass will then become a pseudo cold front that will eventually open the door to cold advection this evening as it is pushed southward. 2. Upstream, the model data clearly shows an anticyclonically curved flow trajectory over the cold waters of Lake Superior, down Lake Michigan into portions of southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. This is a dramatically different source region to the underlying air mass which will provide a much higher wet bulbing potential over WI/IL. It is the orientation of these low level thermal gradients and implied advections that then match up to WPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Output that supports substantially higher probabilities for high impact snow accumulations back to the west. Forcing for precipitation will be outstanding this evening within the aforementioned 800-600mb layer. Peak of the precipitation event will occur in the 00-06Z time window with 700-500mb and 850-700mb UVVs expected to reach 20 microbars per second. A great frontal signature is noted in the soundings at 700mb with low static stability above the front. Given the direct CVA, the potential certainly exists for some isolated thunder, both with convective rain or convective snow activity. High amount of column moisture with 3.75 to 4.0 g/kg available to the lift. Given the ingredients and high end frontal forcing, the potential exists for high snowfall rates tonight once precipitation type changes over. Always easy in these springtime systems to find large aggregation of snow crystals which leads to 1 inch per hour rates or higher. As for total snowfall amounts, limitations do exist with warm surface temperatures this afternoon right up until the evening and the likelihood that a bulk of qpf will fall in the form of rain. Probably the most detrimental to snowfall amounts will be a warm and wet ground. This will compromise crystal structure on the ground and hasten settling. This definitely appears to be an event where those measuring hourly overnight will see some impressive snow on elevated/grassy surface, but those that wait until Sunday morning may feel underwhelmed. The current forecast will read 2 to 4 inches possible in the higher elevation of Oakland/Livingston/Macomb/Washtenaw Counties, with 1 to 2 inches both to the north and south of that corridor. Uncertainty does exist with what impact the snow will have on area roadways. The guess right now is slushy at daybreak. The most likely negative impact of this event may very well be low visibilities in falling snow late this evening and overnight. There were two trends easily identified in the 27.00Z suite. 1. The nam came in much higher with QPF. 2. The ECMWF was farther south with the QPF and much tighter with the QPF axis over Southeast Michigan. It is important to note the stark difference between the NAM and ECMWF. Generally viewed the NAM as an outlier overall, but did incorporate .75 to .80 inches liquid amounts for Lenawee and Monroe Counties. Given all of the considerations, later timing of precipitation changeover to snow, lower QPF trend through northern Metro Detroit, potentially slushy roadways, very low WPC snowfall probabilities, and a weekend nighttime event, the decision was made to defer headline decisions to the dayshift.

The winters over crowd always cracks me up. A 2 day thaw shows up on the models in January and you hear "Winter's over" from a few. It's always 100% incorrect. Once in a while they may luck out with a 2012 type year, but for the most part, the snow season in the lower Great Lakes lasts 6 months. It is not continuous, but it's a long time between the first and last snow of the season so anything can happen. Speaking of time, here some food for thought. We are probably just 5.5 to 6 months away from the 1st snowflakes of the 2019-20 season

We do not seem to be that far along here. My brother noted last weekend in Chicago that they was a lot more blooming there than here. It is certainly picked up a lot the past week though.

Here are ALL the measurable snowfalls on or after April 27 in 140 years of record for Detroit. Its a SHORT list. And note that outside of a tenth of an inch in 1954 and 2005, if Detroit gets 0.2"+, itll he the most significant snow this late since 1923, or 96 years! If you list chronologically by calendar day Apr 29, 1909- 3.0" May 1/2, 1909- 0.4" May 3, 2005- 0.1" May 4, 1907- 0.2" May 4, 1954- 0.1" May 9, 1923- 6.0" May 10, 1902- 0.5" May 13, 1912- 1.5" May 21/22, 1883- 5.0" But chronologically by year... May 21/22, 1883- 5.0" May 10, 1902- 0.5" May 4, 1907- 0.2" Apr 29, 1909- 3.0" May 1/2, 1909- 0.4" May 13, 1912- 1.5" May 9, 1923- 6.0" May 4, 1954- 0.1" May 3, 2005- 0.1"

I remember that. I think Toledo officially had 8". We only got 0.3" here and I remember a friend in Toledo was posting pictures of broken tree limbs on Facebook. We did get an inch the next day lol.

2004-05 was a great Winter, then the next 2 were duds before a string of great winters commenced. Apr 23-25 was certainly not the biggest storm of the season here, that was a 12 incher in January, but parts of the thumb had around 16" of snow with 3' drifts. I can tell you my time line for the storm. Despite starting to snow around mid afternoon April 23rd, by 8:00 a.m. April 24th, the snow at this point having been non stop, we probably had a total of about 1.5" of slush. Then from about 11:00 a.m. To 4:00 p.m. April 24th, we picked up 5" of great packing snow before rates tailed off and we picked up minimal additional accumulation, though snow continued unabated til early morning the 25th. My storm told snowfall was 6.7", with a peak depth of around 6" which occurred mid afternoon the 24th. By 8:00 a.m. April 25th the snow depth was down to 2" and it was gone by noon the 25th.

Do you have Detroit? I saw graphs but not raw numbers.