michsnowfreak

It's unreal how flip floppy and inconsistent the models are. I notice the cfs continues with its frigid February. Isn't the backing off on cold with a still active look actually better for snowstorm chances in our region?

Who is writing off next month?

Regardless of what happens, bamwx is a joke lol. I would take them as seriously as jb

if anyone thinks that beavis would be satisfied with an average Madison or Minneapolis winter, then clearly they have not read his posts

picked up 0.2 of snow overnight. zzz continues.

yes you are fortunate lol.

This is a good post. I love winter and I love snow. I always have and I always will. I also understand how weather works and understand that our winter climo is actually better than a ton of places. I am shocked that with a met degree beavis has such an unrealistic expectations. I have measured snow since 1995 and have taken an annual winter trip North since 2007. I get frustrated when we have crappy winters just like any other snow lover. BUT I don't go into a winter with an expectation that we will get feet of snow November 1st and Arctic cold and then meltdown when it doesn't happen.

That is true. 2014 had two 10"+ storms in a week but no individual big dog. Give me that winter every year.

I remember Ice in the lakes until may and I remember some ornamental trees died in the Detroit area over the Winter due to the severity

I agree. I have always told people we will have a harsh winters again but we will never have another 2013-14. It was the 3rd coldest December to March on record at Detroit, but in addition to being the snowiest Winter on record the snow depth blew all of the records away. We had 46 days with more than 10" of snow on the ground. The next Winter, 2014-15, we had 32 days with more than 10" of snow on the ground. Before those 2 winters the single Winter record was 18 days.

how is your glacier doing lol?

Here is the snowfall for those same past 15 winters ...............ORD......DTW 2005-06: -9.7"....-6.4" 2006-07: -0.7"....-12.4" 2007-08: +24.0"....+29.0" 2008-09: +16.4"....+23.0" 2009-10: +17.9"....+1.0" 2010-11: +21.1"....+26.4" 2011-12: -16.5"....-16.7" 2012-13: -6.2"....+5.0" 2013-14: +45.7"....+52.2" 2014-15: +14.3"....+4.7" 2015-16: -5.1"....-7.4" 2016-17: -10.2"....-4.8" 2017-18: -0.2"....+18.3" 2018-19: +13.2"....-11.4" 2019-20: -1.5"....+1.0" Chicago and Detroit each have an accumulated surplus just over 100 inches the past 15 years. That is a lot! Breaking down the good and bad, the past 15 winters, although Chicago averages 1.5F colder and 6.4" less snow per winter than Detroit...each city averaged +0.4° and +6.8" for their respective average for the past 15 winters. I don't like mild and low snow winters any more than beavis...I just know reality is that an average would not be an average if you always exceeded it.

Here the temperature departures for Chicago and Detroit last 15 winters, of course not counting this Winter. ................ORD.....DTW 2005-06: +2.7....+2.4 2006-07: +0.1....+0.9 2007-08: -1.6....0.0 2008-09: -4.1....-3.5 2009-10: -1.4....-0.5 2010-11: -3.3....-3.8 2011-12: +6.4....+5.0 2012-13: +3.2....+2.7 2013-14: -7.6....-7.0 2014-15: -3.4....-4.9 2015-16: +5.0....+5.6 2016-17: +4.2....+5.1 2017-18: +0.5....-0.5 2018-19: +0.3....+1.0 2019-20: +5.0....+4.6 I looked up the last time that each Detroit and Chicago had a Winter with a temperature departure as above average as 2013-14 was below average, and for each city you have to go all the way back to 1889-90. And that's using today's average.

Do they still measure at the airport or a nearby site?

With as boring as this Winter has been so far, I fully expected beavis to easily surpass his average meltdown quota, and that's fine but, but I just lol every time I hear 2013-14 was "decent". I know it was more severe in Detroit and Chicago but still, Chicago had like 225% of avg snowfall and temps like 8 degrees below avg. If you consider that Winter just decent, you will never ever be satisfied until you move to that Aomori, Japan (but warning, its probably not cold enough).

You would definitely see more snow in Detroit than New York City, but you would weenie out in Marquette. Your main crimes would be disorderly college students and you would usually have snow to play in from about Halloween till the end of April. Don't go house hunting this year though, I've never seen snow depths so low there in midwinter. The area only has between 2 and 8" of snow on the ground right now, they should have several feet. The deepest snow this winter was the last week of October. We've had several snowfalls but they each lasted like only 3-4 days on the ground.. youd think it was Denver not Detroit. Thank God the pattern change is imminent.

That's a nice picture. My brother doesn't look to have nearly that much, I think hes a what's considered Lincoln Park?

What was funny about the much maligned Winter of 2011-12, is had it not been for Morch I think it would have just blended in as run of the mill mild Winter and not everyone's least favorite Winter in their memory lol. We actually had 2 snowfalls, January 20th & February 11th, where we got several inches of snow with temperatures in the mid teens. Legit deep Winter conditions. The problem is you would think we were Denver because it vanished 3 days later.

lol. yes I was. and we quickly learned this is no normal nina. its not at all behaving how I expected. I expected extreme temp swings, instead its been stagnant with barely moving temps. I did say it would be not a great snowcover year due to the swings. but I didn't think it'd be like this. Biggest surprise is i thought It would feature way above avg precip, I would have thought it was imminent. Through January it is well below avg. in fact as annoying as it has been, most of the precip we HAVE seen has been snow, very wet snow, and of course new years ice. We have actually seen very little plain rain since before Thanksgiving. I thought February was the big wildcard in a Nina but others said it was typically torch. Lucky for us, that appears to be unlikely too. really thinking February is our best month. Some of the recent cfs runs would give Feb 2015 a run for its money. of course the cfs is a joke overall but its interesting that its not defaulting to its usual warmth.

We had freezing fog here this morning as well.

I was actually considering Houghton or calumet this year but considering its a farther drive I want to see how much snow there will be. Kind of want to save that for a good or even average snow year. we are still talking a month away and with a pattern change imminent.

Good points. It's pretty much unanimous that colder air is on the way. Add in the fact that talk of this cold/pattern change happened before models even showed it, then of course once models started showing it they rushed it as always, and you have some just saying over and over it's always 10 days away, it's never going to happen, and things like that. When there's not cold air it can still snow. We had average snowfall in Detroit in December with above average snowfall in Cleveland, all pretty much with no "cold" air to be had. The coldest days we had seemed to be products of the fresh snow that just fell. The flip side of this is when there is cold there is no guarantee of some big snow fest. However it certainly increases the chances for snow activity in the Great Lakes region and with or without a big storm we can at least have a period of actual "deep Winter" . As for skeptics of the actual cold coming? The extent of cold that we will see here is unknown, but when you are seeing unanimous support for colder than average anomalies in the dead of Winter, I think it's a safe bet the pattern is changing. Biggest place to look is western Canada. They are going from extreme warm anomalies to extreme cold anomalies in the coming change. If this somehow does not materialize you might as well just disable all weather models and start sticking your fingers out the window to see which way the wind is blowing.

I have not looked at forecasts but I have heard of the record cold going on in Russia

Screw Spring lol. Let's have a rockin February lol. Which we just might. Latest long-term trends show a much colder February then they were, but models can't get tmrw right so who knows. They are still keeping with a wet look too. So that's a good combo if it can come to fruition. the lack of cold has been insane. The coldest temp at Detroit has been 19 and that was during a snowstorm on Christmas. Then again it hasn't been warm either. A few scattered days in the 40s would make the original warmistas who coined the term "torch" snicker. I guess that's what non stop overcast will do. I cannot recall such a low temp swing over the course of a winter like this one so far. The only thing that's pretty certain is that a much colder air mass definitely seems to be coming. How much snow it produces, who gets the most snow, and how cold it gets are all questions we can't answer. But hopefully this shakes up the atmosphere and we can start having a little more fun.

Picked up 0.1" of slushy snow earlier. It was a November or April like rain snow kitchen sink. Narrow band of around 2" between Jackson and ann arbor but even that is rapidly melting. I'm at 15.0" on the season but 11.9" of that fell between November 30th and December 29th.