michsnowfreak

Bamwx is going warm for Feb? That's almost as shocking as JB calling for snow and cold. I actually think February will probably end up pretty decent for those North of I 80. Most long range models have been hitting at a relatively short warm up in early February before seasonable to cold weather for the remainder of the month. Strong signal for above avg precip in the sub. Of course any long range or monthly/weekly needs to be taken with a grain of salt past week 2.

Weatherbell has all the model runs and ensemble runs it's only like $25 a month. A great investment for a weather geek. You can also get a yearly subscription for a slight discount, but I will probably cancel during the boring months and then renew in the fall lol

Weatherbell!

fantastic euro run but it can stop moving north lol

At least not officially.

Last 6"+ snowstorm Detroit- Jan 18, 2020 - Chicago- Nov 26, 2018 Last 8"+ snowstorm Detroit- Nov 11, 2019 - Chicago- Nov 26, 2018 Last 10"+ snowstorm Detroit- Feb 9, 2018 - Chicago- Nov 21, 2015 Last 12"+ snowstorm Detroit- Feb 1, 2015 - Chicago- Feb 1, 2015

There are a few non event members but I would not say "so many". You have to remember that the reason that the heaviest stripe of snow is not crazy on the mean is because the individual members are still all over the place, which includes a few that would totally miss Chicago and Detroit to the North.

This is me. Next time it sounds like I may give you a hard time over your rant, just remember we are basically twins.

They do have a version of winter wonderland.

I've always been interested in the weather since I was a kid, my mom instilled it into me although Im much more into it than she is lol. Always loved snow, been measuring every snowfall since the fall of 1995 when I was 12. I live a 2 minute drive from my childhood home so really doesn't affect location for my snow records either lol. That means this is my 26 consecutive Winter of measuring snow in my own backyard.. Weather stats/history interest me more than forecasting. I became a co-op observer for the NWS in 2004 so my daily precip/snow has officially been logged since then. My actual 9-5, or should I say 8-4 lol, is I'm an injury adjuster for an insurance company. Working from home now which is why I want a lot of snow to enjoy.

it definitely bumped nw in Michigan. looks like the mean took on a SLIGHT more sw to ne orientation rather than w to e

I am no forecasting expert but some of the those who are have already mentioned that the block itself is what's preventing this from being a warm rainy cutter.

A lot of strong members but the mean is kept in check because there are such varying placements of the snow swath. Still a few duds but not many.

I do remember the ice failing, I thought you were just talking about snow. As for December 2nd are you thinking of the storm that went to Eastern Ohio and hit the Eastern part of the sub? Or something different? That pounded Cleveland with almost 10" and was actually my biggest snow of the season so far with 4.3" on the Western edge. Of course model placement always sucks more than a few days out lol. Hopefully this one delivers.

I want a glacier too! Mother nature knows how to push my buttons lol. I expected snow to melt today, we only had an inch of powder on the ground so of course that's when you get low 40s with very low humidity. Still a few scraps of snow left in the shade from a measly fluffy inch. However 3 other times this season we get a 3-4" snowpack with more water, we managed to warm up with dewpoints near 40 justtt long enough to melt the snow before it gets colder.

Not a bad look on the euro weeklies. Above avg precip for many and other than a mild week 3, temps look pretty seasonal for the most part with several bouts of below average temps north of i80.

Please refresh my memory lol because I do not remember any big storms 2 days out that fizzled. Last Winter I do remember that the November 11th snowstorm over performed, the January 18th thump performed as expected and I do not remember what was forecast for the February 26th snow although looks like that was your last legit big dog mirage.

What does this mean in translation lol? (I cant believe I'm asking someone to extrapolate the nam )

I wonder if this will be one of the storms where You see a model start North then head South and correct back North again. Or watch it be one of those where models flip their position, the North go South and the South go North

Just a bit left in the shade here. Of course this is like the 3rd Sunny day in the last 2 months so has to come when theres powder snow on the ground lol.

80s whammies were funnier lol

It was a nice snowfall on February 26, 5.7" here, but honestly I don't remember any of the hype surrounding it? Was it a storm that went farther south than anticipated or was not as strong?

My favorite storm. 16.7" at Detroit, 18" on the ground...Nice deep snowpack was put in place for the record cold month that would follow.

The grinch storm temp gradient was insane. Christmas was our coldest day of this mild winter (upper teens/low 20s and 3.6" snow)...frost in Florida...60s in Maine.

gfs is especially bad for a lot of the lake effect/lake enhanced events we get in Michigan. it will show a generic blob of precip and good luck even getting an idea where the best bands are (hi res is better but not fool proof)