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Everything posted by michsnowfreak
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Unusually impressive diurnal ranges the past week here. Forecast to go to 80-82 today. DTW high / low 05-07: 76 / 48 05-08: 58 / 40 05-09: 66 / 36 05-10: 80 / 45 05-11: 67 / 46 05-12: ?? / 44
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Hopefully you get some rain soon, dont need those beautiful northwoods to burn! Im a lover of all things northern trees lol; my backyard has 2 balsam firs (1 is massive), 1 douglas fir, a white paper birch tree, a white pine, a norway spruce & an autumn blaze maple.
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Crazy to see 96° at International Falls, MN today. The icebox of the nation. Detroit has never officially hit 96° in May! Very pleasant Mother's Day here. Lows in the mid 40s, highs mid 60s and going back to the 40s tonight.
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I couldn't agree more. Although many years seems like we go from AC September to heat October.
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Had the heat on off and on so far in May. I do NOT want to go right to AC lol.
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Higher summer mins seem to be the most notable aspect here. There's obviously nuances to everything, but LONGTERM, winter here really hasn't changed much outside of a Dec temp increase and Jan-Feb snow increase.
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Mine would be July 2012. Just gross.
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Even if it was in the 30s at legit stations, it doesnt take away from the heat that that summer was known for, which was your point in bringing up that brief but potent cold snap. The most deadly heatwave in history, 1936, was in a summer that had cool snaps. Some more stagnant summers can come up with a higher mean temp despite never having any single impressive max temp. And I won't even get started on who's "wrong" about things lol.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Thank you -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
My birthday is May 8th so the weather can be very variable this time of year, but by a mile 2020 was my coldest birthday. I wore a turtleneck sweater that day. It flurried all day in a brisk breeze then we got to a record low of 27F the next morning, one of the coldest May temps on record. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
May 8 - 12, 2020 saw snow reported 5 straight days at Detroit (T, T, 0.5, T, T). Five consecutive days of May snow has never happened before in the entire climate record. Today was likely the last frost of the season...with the first only 4.5-5 months away! -
Frosty May morning in SE MI. Detroit officially got to 36F, with some rural areas dipping below freezing.
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Frost advisory for most of southern MI tonight. With the summer-like warmth next week, even though not long-lasting, this should be the last frost until late September or early October.
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Good memory! Record low of 46F at DTW on July 2, 2001.
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To this day, summer 1988 holds the record for the most 90F+ days on record at Detroit (39). With a widespread drought going on, I assume the humidity was unusually low. I was only 5 but Ill never forget seeing a grass fire ignite before my eyes. There was indeed a brief but potent (for the season) cold snap to start July. In fact, DTW had a record low of 48F on July 1st, sandwiched between a sea of record highs in June & July. That summer saw 5 days of 100F+, which is 2nd only to 1936 with 8. Nevertheless, its an absolute joke to take an alleged 32F reading at a random coop station with a very possibly faulty thermometer in an extremely rural area, in one of the last months that station kept records....and just say "hey it was 32 this day, youd never see that today". BTW the official low at Pittsburgh that day was 49F. Lmao do you know some of the insane readings that come from some of the cold spots in rural Michigan during the summer?
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Hes excellent at cherry picking the most random things from xmacis. A random coop station in a middle of nowhere town with a population under 2K that is full of missing data and hasnt reported since 1988. If that isnt accuracy, I dont know what is.
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An unusual day today in that high temps in Michigan ranged from the 80s in the western U.P. to the 50s in southeast MI.
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Its very odd to pick one random day. I guess I could say I remember as a kid it was spring by mid-late April and now we almost always get a snowfall. Its a huge generalization. July 4th is a hot summer day most of the time. If a cold front happens upon the area in that timeframe, so be it. But to assert that you would wear a hoodie as a kid and now its always 70+ is a stretch. Pittsburgh was 100F on July 4, 1911. The warmest July 4th low at Pittsburgh airport was actually 74F in 1999.
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My memory of the 1990s is that summers were about the same, springs/falls were cooler, and winters were milder and less snowy than the 21st century. Without a doubt the most sour aspect of the 1990s for me was winters.
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The models have been and will be wrong about a lot of things. The outlandish predictions of how much 90F+ (and 100F+) days will increase in northern locations has been a massive fail.
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Oh, but you mustve missed this: Really though, it gets tiresome so I limit myself in these discussions. If you are discussing a cold and or snowy aspect of the weather that doesnt follow a straight warmer/less snowy path, you often get a lecture on some unrelated aspect of CC. Im not debating the warming of the earth. I will be 42 Thursday and my mom is 67 (a good weather memory)....there is nothing drastically different about our weather/seasons now than at any point in our lives here in Michigan. I was questioning Bluewaves talking points because, intentional or not, they come across as to where someone my age living in NYC would have now experienced both the snowiest decade and the biggest snow drought of the entire climate record, with the snow drought currently at the point of no return barring some miracle. Its like a slideshow of different climates in a 20-year span after remaining rather steady the previous 150 years in one spot. Just seemed off to me.
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Extreme heat is definitely nothing here like it used to be. More days in the 80s and warmer summer nights increase summer mean temps. So I have a hard time seeing any wild uptick In 90s here either.
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I like march but yeah April sucks.
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Got 1.13" of rain yesterday. Seasonable May day today.
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Chicago (and Cleveland) lakeshore would have more of a difference year-round than Detroit. Its my understanding the entire reason the NWS (or formerly Weather Bureau) moved stations is for more uniformity due to increasing influences at a station site. DTW airport absolutely has seen increasing UHI since the 1980s due to so much expanding concrete. They were a radiational cooling magnet in the 1960s-70s and that changed drastically starting in the 1990s. Detroit city airport is no longer a first-order station, but it does have a thermometer so to compare, the first 20 years DTW became the official site, DTW averaged 1.7F cooler than DET. The last 20 years DTW has averaged just 0.3F cooler. Regardless of the site locations, we dont know all the warming influences (or lackthereof) at any given time. There is no way a big city full of dirt roads in the 1870s would have the same temperature readings as that same spot would have as a concrete jungle in the 2020s. That chart, "since 1970". THAT has also been discussed multiple times now. This unusual starting date is used frequently, and it is soley to make warming look as extreme as possible. Starting a chart in 1970 ahead of the coldest winters on record will give you the biggest regression line. And as we move farther away from 1970, why cling onto using that starting point? Its now 55 years, so far more than the 30-year periods commonly used, that you wonder why not go longterm? Its because to do that, youd have to include the much milder winters of the 1930s-1950s which would really tone down that regression line. So youd have to go back to 1870 to make it a bit better. You will never, EVER see a regression line chart start in 1930. And whats funny is that that would make a lot more sense than 1970 as we are nearing the 100-year mark. Yes Ann Arbor winters have warmed 3.9F since 1970....and theyve warmed 1.4F since 1930. Regardless of the amount of warming or any discussion on temps, site changes, etc...the lower Great Lakes are not seeing any notable adjustments to their snowfall or snowcover climo other than normal decade to decade noise, although erring on the side of INCREASING somewhat rather than decreasing. So this brings me back to my original point, how is it that suddenly NYC is seeing this erratic rubber band from snowiest decade on record to a snow drought from which they supposedly may never recover?