michsnowfreak

Aren't you near Chicago? Last January and February were both colder than average, February 2021 was way colder than avg with near record snow depth in Chicago, and of course who can forget the record cold snap in 2019. It just seems like when we go through a real shitty time like now, some memories are a little unfair to previous winters lol.

Im staying in Bear Paw (near L'anse) Feb 16-20. How close is that to you or any of those locations?

The only thing I can think of is Marquettes official data is kept in the neighboring city of Negaunee, and Negaunee has less than 10,000 people

Last January was not bad here. Snowfall ended up slightly below avg but it was also much colder than avg. It was absolutely a winter month, unlike this year. And then yes Feb did her usual thing.

It only uses cities with 10,000+ people. But I can't figure out where Marquette is. Sault Ste. Marie has been the snowiest city in the U.S. over the last 30 years, according to the data compiled by the 230-year-old publication. “One of the oldest French settlements in North America, Sault Ste. Marie is located near the bank of a river which connects Lake Huron and Lake Superior,” the publication reads. “With lake-effect snow, it’s no surprise that it’s one of the snowiest places in the United States". Muskegon, a popular summer tourism destination, checked in at No. 7 on the list. “A winter wonderland, Muskegon is situated between Lake Michigan to the west and Muskegon Lake to the north, receiving heavy lake-effect snow from Lake Michigan during winter time, totaling 79.3 inches annually,” the publication reads.”Midwesterners flock to Muskegon in the winter for luging, ice skating, and wintry fun.” The Almanac also notes that Michigan has many snowy cities, including Grand Rapids (74.6 inches), Flint (49.9) and Detroit (43).

December. Will return by February.

Actually, 1991 to 2020 normals are I believe the highest 30 year normal snowfall for both Detroit (45.0") and Flint (52.1").

We pretty much know a milder than average pattern is locked in til the 20-25th or so, but if it remains active there should still be some snow threats. All the longrange guidance that goes past 16 days (euro weeklies, cfs, gfs extended) have a much colder look in late Jan into February.

Summer to winter is comparing apples to oranges. Temp departures in summer are not as extreme. In winter you often need temp departures of 25-30° to have a record high or low. In summer you often need 15° or even less.

Agree. The dead of Winter is late January to early February, but really anytime from early January to late February you don't need blues on the temp map to support snows.

Today is one month since the last Sunny day here

It used to be DTW. Funny. I remember all these winters when all it did was snow snow snow, but some found any problem with things "gfs had more" or "it's not a big dog" etc. What I wouldn't give to go back to that.

He said he was thinking Winter would be over after the December cold but now is changing his mind with the MJO. Also says the NPAC is as close to 2013-14 as you can get lol.

There's been many examples. I just pulled the most recent one. There's also examples of cold patterns that produce below average snow. There no set rhyme or reason, its just obvious that when you get closer to the dead of Winter, milder than average weather is much more workable to still yield snow. Will there be more Winter weather this year? Absolutely. How much? No idea. I hate bringing this up but it's the truth. I'll continue to look the other way until it is March or April and it has happened, but Detroit is definitely due for some trash snow seasons. The 2010s were the snowiest decade on record and the 2000s were also snowier than average. And by trash Winter, I don't mean periods of suck but then we still get a snow blitz that brings us to average snowfall. I mean a true well below average snow season once its done in April, something which we have had very very few of recently. Average isn't average if it's never below.

From Larry Cosgrove: Let us go a little more in-depth about the upcoming sudden stratospheric warming event. With an add-on of how the Madden-Julian Oscillation could be an influence in getting a winter re-start in North America in the second half of the month. I realize with the rather boring temperature display in the USA and Canada, that any talk of an Arctic intrusion may be (mildly putting it....) triggering smirks from people enjoying the (predicted) January Thaw. But for about a week now, all four of the numerical model forecasts for the 10MB level have consistently shown a warming in the stratosphere over Russia that culminates in a (relatively) warm bubble aloft over Alaska, British Columbia and the Yukon Territory after January 15. When you see an SSW episode, look at the general flow, the position of the circumpolar vortex, and the extent of snow and ice cover. Upon doing this, you realize that a "Siberian Express" with cross-polar flow option could occur between January 15 and February 1. This configuration looks much stronger and longer-lived than the December cold surge and Great Lakes storm. Of course things could change. But when I look at the rather inert Madden-Julian Oscillation, and see the various guidance pulsing the core to southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and a linkage to the now disconnected polar westerlies, you can put together a "trouble brewing" scenario. I have seen similar cases of upper atmospheric disturbances and interplay, and will be looking for one of the northern stream impulses to dig through the southern tier of the U.S., then deepen as it heads up along and/off of the Eastern Seaboard. If the intensification occurs with great surface divergence and upper air convergence, the "Thaw" will leave town in a hurry.

I mean many times we've done fine with mil. February 2020 we had 15" with temperatures over 2ﾟ above average.

Weeklies torch week one, mild week 2 and 3, then normal to colder than normal week 4 through 6. Mild is workable if it's active, so not a terrible look.

Highlights each month of 2022. Very hard most months due to a boring year lol. Jan- back to back clippers Jan 23-24 dropped nearly 6" ahead of bitter cold Feb- Yet another snowy February. A two wave storm Feb 2/3 still dropped 9" despite overall bust; whiteout LES Feb 13; winter storm on Feb 17-18 ends up being the biggest precip maker of the entire year with 1.39" precip, 6.8" snow. Mar- morning snow (1.4") with temps in teens saw temp skyrocket to mid 40s in a few hours Apr- largest flakes I ever saw on Apr 3. Like feathers. Mesolow dropped a quick 2"; for the 3rd year in a row a scenic late Apr snow (2.4" on Apr 18) May- 1st 90 of year on May 31 Jun- low of 49 on 19th gave way to 96° on 21st Jul- majority of July had comfortable humidity Aug- heavy tstorm Aug 21 (1.10") was literally the first downpour all summer Sep- last day of summer high 89, first day of fall high 65 Oct- Beautiful color season with peak color mid to late October; moderate burst of wet snow Oct 20 Nov- arctic front on Nov 19 dropped a quick 1.8" of snow with below zero wind chills Dec- blizzard conditions Dec 22 with arctic front, wind chills -30, very drifty 2.4" snowfall; Woke up to a fresh surprise 2" of snow Christmas morning.

It was neat to see but that kind of cold is brutal. It was hard to breathe. When I went out to clear my driveway I had ice on my face.

I'm not sure how far Windsor's records go back, but I do know that a huge warm spell hit the region from December 31, 1875 to January 2, 1876. It was the definition of irony in that 1875 was and still stands as by far the coldest year on record. It was unusually cold the entire year, then we get some crazy warm up on the last day of the year. My guess is that 19.4C (67°) at Windsor was Jan 1, 1876. Detroit hit 65 on December 31st, January 1st and 62 on January 2nd. Detroit's warmest January temperature is also 67ﾟ, but that was set to January 25, 1950. Ann Arbor recorded 72 on that day. If anyone in Canada managed to hit 20C it would likely have been Jan 25, 1950.

December is typically our cloudiest month in Detroit, but this December was even cloudier than normal. It's actually hard to get a cloudier month than this. The average sky cover at DTW was better than 9.3 out of 10.

Lol thanks. We all like different aspects of the weather. Just have to appreciate that other people like different things. Even if someone who lives in the cold Midwest prefers tropical weather all the time, I can appreciate that, just not if their sole purpose is to troll. (Wonder who I'm talking about lol). Honestly, the actual conditions last week were downright brutal and from a weather perspective you would have enjoyed it. Then a fresh surprise blanket of Christmas snow. Now after a week of deep winter it's GROSS outside. I would have easily sacrificed all the up-and-down active weather for just mundane run of the mill constant snow. January snow 2002 15.0 2003 13.9 2004 14.0 2005 26.9 2006 5.0 2007 6.4 2008 13.8 2009 25.2 2010 8.9 2011 17.9 2012 9.3 2013 10.0 2014 39.1 2015 14.2 2016 8.4 2017 11.8 2018 9.2 2019 14.2 2020 9.7 2021 6.4 2022 8.8

I always forget when you moved to Southeast Michigan.

January 2014 was the snowiest Jan on record with 39.1". However we actually finished with normal to above normal snowfall in January 2015, 2017, and 2019. But a majority of the time a lot of the activity comes the 2nd half of January. Below is the total snowfall at Detroit from January 15th through February 28th for the past 20 years. The average snowfall in that time frame is around 15", and actually the long term average is closer to 14". 2002- 19.1" 2003- 24.6" 2004- 7.1" 2005- 27.2" 2006- 8.0" 2007- 20.3" 2008- 32.2" 2009- 20.6" 2010- 27.8" 2011- 39.8" 2012- 16.0" 2013- 32.9" 2014- 40.0" 2015- 31.2" 2016- 11.6" 2017- 9.4" 2018- 26.6" 2019- 21.3" 2020- 22.0" 2021- 26.8" 2022- 26.4"

Don't forget Christmas 2020, it was like a postcard!