pasnownut

+1 with both of you and trainer. Only caveat is that we have -NAO and that throws a flag up for the "inevitable" tick north to me. Would probably be easy to find periods of -NAO in the last 20yrs and see what percentage jogged north vs got shunted south.

Yeah I know, but if you look at the "blocking" for next week, there's not much when we need it (LSV anyway) and our thermals are marginally ok (as of 12z's). Not sure i feel confident we are safe down here. Seeing CMC AND EURO come north scares me as were still 5 days out. We needed them to hold for another day or so for me to be able to sleep well wrt this event.

Shortened the abbreviation. -NO

and to further understand my concern. Full disclosure this is a known GFS bias, so not totally surprised, but wrt DEC event, we had days and days of consensus. Yes, a touchdown is still a possibility, and I'm not sure its a hail mary that is necessary, but the team needs to get their sh!t together soon. GFS looks like shredmaggedon or suppression city for next 10 days. Not even worried about the cutter it shows beyond that range.

Bingo.......doesn't inspire alot of hope/comfort as consensus still lags inside 7 days. Fortunately every model cycle seems to have one or 2 ways to snow, but goalposts are boucing all around and Canderson is too afraid to step on the field to kick da ball.

and 12hrs later Point I'm trying to drive home is that players are on the field, but not sure who is qb (should be NAO- but his passer rating is not so good), and who is punter (we have several of them vying for said position. Thats quite the shift in 6 hours. GFS just went to "lost mode". Is a storm coming....I think so, but as much as we follow this stuff, I cant say w/ too much confidence. Euro stays on point, yeah that'll help, but it too had us snowing this week only 7 days ago.

I'm betting we see less than 10 flakes here in Lanco. Getting good at waiting. I'll tell ya, it has been niice for the northern locals, as theyve had snow OTG for a month now, and keep getting refreshers every coupld days. Thats what I was hoping would happen down here. All we've been able to do is retain snow piles :(. lol its all good.

We’ve not pinned down a threat since mid Dec. and yeah I’m a bit snakebit and until todays nooners finally showing some continuity, the players have been on the field, but we’ve got to get some first downs, not fumbles if we’re going to score. Hoping tonight moves the chains forwards.

Yeah Mag the nooners were looking like a few chances at scoring with the block doing what it should and forcing systems under us. Need NAO to stay west based or systems might cut to friggin Idaho. This propensity for systems to try and cut just rattles the nerves. If we can see more consensus build in the next few runs I’m going to get excited. As crazy as it is the euro is far enough south that we could have suppression depression for the Mon Tues system. As a result The next 2 might have a chance to gain latitude and get us in the goods. If that’s not enough we all remember how excited we were a week ago for this week and the snow shredder NAO tore em up. As the MA forum often complains ...many ways to fail. I’m not Debbyin just trying to keep it real in here. I want blizz’s maps to work as much as anyone here....and my snowmobiles...want it more.

hehe... it was fun, but what an easy target. Nut is quietly lurkin and was thinking the Op runs might belly under the nice NAO and was thinking it didnt make sense. I'm glad todays runs brought some looks as to what I/we should expect with such blocking, but am not overly confident in much anymore. One can only see so many good looks "vaporize" to rattle logic and what one thought one understood about weather/physics..... and the cutter thing....it really is annoying....and concerning at the same time as I fear it may be part of the warming base state and what the models/analogs are struggling to recognize. ie. just because you once saw this....doesnt mean what it once did. All that said, it still looks like a fun few weeks coming up. Not looking much further for sanity's sake.

So now we wont get cut, but NAO is a shredder. Upslope and lake snow folk approve, but its just a meat grinder verbatim. Just need some southern energy to get involved and we'd be seeing lots of little pieces of overrunning IMO.

agreed and not a far fetched solution.

Typical bias. It will “let go” of it in a few runs.

lol....howd that work for ya...? I've been filling my time w/ keeping active during these boring times....and as of today trolling the hell outta Ji in the MA thread. For a dude that really knows his sh!t, he really needs to learn to keep it wound up tighter...

actually it can only change 32-34 (start time dependent).... just having fun.... Para says buckle up....its gonna be a fun ride in search of the promise land. Vorts every couple days.

Ops are still just not buying into the Ens runs, but I look forward to them correcting in the coming days.....we'll we hope anyway.

Just remember that a while back, LR guidance suggested this big cutter would reshuffle the deck to a good look, and that seems to be on track. And yes, if this is the January thaw....I'd be giddy if this is as bad as it gets before we go deep winter..... Seeing the effects of the SSW coupled w/ the NAO/AO, it is rather exciting to see the players coming back to the field after a long hiatus.

Yeah, you've been sniffin out the upcoming period and it is great to see a ridge bridge straight from the hinterlands of the north. Been a while since we've seen that on the maps and it was nice to see yesterday. -pna isnt scary w/ a stout -nao as progged so bowling balls across the conus is fine w/ me. A little help w/ WAR is also fine as it feeds the machine to the north, but its a scary ask as it's cooked us oh so many times and seems to rule the weather roost here in the east. Gonna need that a bit as the STJ is pretty far south IMO. It's just really refreshing to not be in a shut out winter, and yeah, seeing chances starting to pop up is pretty cool. I also saw the coastal pop for this weekend, and said something in the MA forum about it yesterday. Looks a tad late for most, but maybe a little in the E/NE regions as it gets cranking. Pocono ski resorts will approve. Yeah Blizz....you better clean out your cache....cause you may be filling it up w/ snow maps in the coming weeks. IMO its a frequent small/med kinda period, but maybe we can score a notable even as well. Any snow is welcome to me....so its all good.

the fast flow on most guidance seems to really be the problem, we can get anything to lock in and work in conjunction w/ each other (like normal long wave stable patterns that snow lovers dream of). That said, its likely a timing thing and something may sneak up in short/med term guidance. While Im bummed, it still feels like winter, so I'm ok w/ it. Was in Phillipsburg this past weekend and they had a rather solid/dense snowpack that is going NOWHERE. Lots of walking through the woods and quite a few times had snow up to my knee. Just wish we had some down here, but it's all good. My son was up north and said he saw more snowmobile activity than he's ever seen. I'm happy for the businesses that typically struggle, and hope this helps a bit, as this year, I'm sure they are far below in cash reserves due to the mess of the last year. I don't envy them.

can only hope to get clipped w/ NS being predominant player, and hopefully we'll be surprised by one of 2. Like I said the other week, at least areas w/ snow wont lose it. Would be nice to get some before pattern breaks down. NOTHING is harder to bear than going through a cold dry period, only to have snow to rain event, as pattern relaxes and warms up. I hate that.

nah...next week still has time, and 12z's keep it close enough. just like for this weekends non event, pay attention to the NE. IF we can get a little more relaxing, that will help to get us the lattitude we need for this thing to come up and visit. My gut says it can happen. at 500, you can see it lifting out a bit. CMC show how it stays south. Looknig at the CMC, it looks simialr to ULL issue we have for this weekend. Hope that goes poof in upcoming runs. Bear in mind, that as NAO relaxes, you may lose thermal boundaries. Soo many ways to fail it seems.

Morning and TGIF! Takeaway from overnights and early morning runs suggest we have a shot at next weeks event. GEPS more bullish on getting southern/eastern crew into some action. GEFS also improved, but still not as excited. That said, they both came north, so thats a small victory, and we need the north trend to continue, because this one has some work to do, but I still feel better about our chances....not great...but better.

was on the road today....glad i was, as I'da spent waayyy too much time tracking NOTHING. poop is right. Happy hour at least shows that there is a storm once again, so there's that.

Yeah I also have an affinity for dark winter days, but they are far better when the landscape is white.

Please ........NO. There can be enough debby'in when we are gettin pooped on by the snow gods. And from what I can tell....you prob couldn't be like that if you tried...but please don't try to prove me wrong....lol I'm just happy for it to be looking and feeling like winter (even if its only snowpiles down here - normalish for piedmont areas)