mahk_webstah

after steady but very light snow all morning, with no radar returns, the radar shows lift arriving, precip starting to shot up on radar, and I'd say we are now a moderate snow with small flakes. With 5-15 on the ground, even if we only get an inch it will feel like a snowstorm today. Radar says to me that we overachieve our "less than an inch" forecast. The forcing from the clipper is just getting here, it is 11 degrees and I bet the ratios are very high. Brian will know.

I'm thinking 5 is the O/U up here. There has been a 2-3 day fairly regular signal of a band of a bit heavier snow that has gone from wne to svt across cnh to sw me. Probably dicier for me than svt or nw mass/ct, but there is a bit of a signal.

GYX seems to agree. Has it both rain and snow up here. A significant snow is still on the table, but it gets iffy in and south of the foothills. The way things have been this year, and this last several days suggests that we have a ways to go, and that the evolution of the next system will probably tell us something about 4th. For up here, we dont' need much of a nudge to have a snowstorm, but dicier for SNE. Also those GEFS and EPS ensemble probs for 6+ snow were quite far south last night.

1/2” last eve with snow on snow a good scene. Healthy looking shortwave near Ottawa maybe high ratio overperfomer?

You have to assume the GFS caves starting at 18 Z. If not, then it’s quite a battle and a changing and complicated pattern with blocking building in.

The tree it is again. From wne thru cnh over into Maine

in a couple of runs with the Euro yesterday, frequently on the GFS, and here on this RDPS, there is a consistent strip of higher qpf that keeps showing up for western merrimack county and over to Lewiston. I noticed that in the days leading up to Dec 17 2020, a higher strip in similar areas up my way. I take that to mean that we have a chance to maximize accumulation up here. I'm sure Brian and Jeff will have a thought about this. Often we see just the opposite up here in coastal storms where the big bands are off to the east and west of the Merr. River Valley, and we know that is a sign of a local minimum probably related to downsloping in the valley. Perhaps the signal on the current storm reflects long easterly flow running into the hill immediately west of the Merrimack river?

but snow probs for 4+ are pretty high and qpf for that period is .5-.75 for many.

but what it shows about a shortwave early in the run is relevant.

truly strange times

No change.

Shorter thinner and cut

If it really goes this way, then for the next week or two, the only model we should look at is the euro

heavier blue echoes about to move in so who knows...

Wrong!!! I was on the deck with my face in the light sleet.

you got a camera in my house biatch/.

The only precip within 400 miles of New England is on the northern border heading east. I can’t imagine we get anything tonight. where will the projected precip come from, out of thin air? Well maybe actually.

7 day qpf from wpc updated. Looks good given it’s mostly all from Mon Tuesday

Yes, in the big storm up here in late January is proof of that.

NMJp but solid all of the region

4.5" here. That includes the 1/2" that has faller in the last 4 hours. That's just an absurd observation.

Still a good storm up here. 6-10 maybe in the end. I like it and maybe we don’t see the continuing trend s and e with the whole system. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if we could good trends for the next day or two. The good solutions at six and seven days often come back at least partly.

Well given the growing skepticism the 12z and 18z should be interesting.

Then why does the EPS mean have a bend north and west (this trended at 6Z). GEFS often go S and E.

Keep coming back!