mahk_webstah

WPC (yeah baby) shows a Miller B with a 996 coastal taking over inside the benchmark and strengthening.

please define central new hampshire

The modelling suggests this season will end up as an A as my snow pack will go back up over 20 inches soon for the second time this year and I’ll probably end up with a minimum of eight weeks 6 inch plus snow pack and I will probably exceed my seasonal average of about 70 inches. Right on the edge, but this is turning into quite a good winter up here. Hopefully all y’all to the south to get in on this real soon starting with today’s storm.

I like the WPC take this afternoon: Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 159 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2023 Valid 12Z Fri Mar 03 2023 - 12Z Tue Mar 07 2023 ***Major storm system is expected to produce widespread heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from the interior Gulf Coast states to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, as well as snow for the Great Lakes and New England late this week*** Latest guidance from the 00Z/06Z cycles was reasonably wellclustered for the system affecting the eastern U.S.Friday-Saturday, with the 00Z CMC and especially UKMET initiallysomewhat south/slower than the GFS-ECMWF and the three mainensemble means. The new 12Z cycle has added to the spread though,with the GFS/GEFS mean trending faster but the UKMET/CMC stillsouth as of early Friday. By Saturday the 12Z GFS/GEFS is stillfairly extreme on the fast side with the Atlantic wave while theUKMET/CMC catch up to the ECMWF/ECMWF mean. The storm system that is currently affecting California is proggedwill likely reach near Arkansas/Missouri by Friday morning with anexpansive area of moderate to heavy rainfall extending east acrossmuch of the Ohio Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms are agood possibility across portions of the Deep South and extendingto the southeast U.S. coast on Friday where favorable kinematicand instability parameters will exist in the warm sector. Checkthe latest Storm Prediction Center products for more informationon the severe weather threats. Farther north, expect anotherround of impactful snow from the southern Great Lakes into partsof the Northeast, with some locations possibly getting over a footof snow accumulation by Saturday. There may also be a transitionzone of wintry mix between the rain/snow areas east of the GreatLakes. The expected strength of the surface low will make strongwinds another factor to contend with, especially across much ofthe Midwest and Ohio Valley. Guidance expects the upper patternover eastern Canada and the Atlantic to become more blocky withtime, as ridging builds back across southern Greenland and anupper low settles over or near the Canadian Maritimes.

10 hour sample with compaction should mean I'm over 5, not including the 1/2" that's fallen in the last half hour. Your pack is about what is in my woods. What a walk today up a hill to a clear view se in moderately falling snow.

Had another burst of moderate for about 1/2 hour while I was talking a walk with the dog in the woods. Probably while you were driving. I don't have a clear area but I'd say I'm over 5 by now. Was pretty mod- heavy snow between 10-12:30. Curious what your measurement is, as there's been a bit of compaction as the temp rose.

Don't know how long it will maintain, but this is 1" an hour <1/4 mile stuff. Although the temp is inching up to about 28 now.

About an hour ago we got some good echoes over us, the radar filled in and it has been moderate-heavy. Starting to pile up. This should translate nicely over into Maine.

Radar Collin in here so that is good for you. 26 with light-moderate snow small flakes but accumulating. 1.75

Strange. Radar is shredded with a huge hole opening up on top of my area into our west, but the snow growth is better in the snow rate is increasing.

Gym didn’t sound too excited re qpf. .5-1 or so. Also not excited about intensity. Maybe a 5-10er up here if all goes well.

Hubby says a couple. How are you feeling about later? Merrimack. VAlley effect screw us? GYX hinted.

How much in nfield? Haven’t been outside to measure

Do t really trust this evolution, snow is light and uneven with only an inch or two overnight. I know a lull was forecast but don’t feel confident about later.

Do we want an obs thread? I could do a Yiddish one for good luck.

Radar looks great

Is “everyone “. SNE?

If it looks like 12+ he should do it. Philly might be easier and its not a bad train ride.

Fly somewhere else and then drive or train home. Do not miss the storm! Flying to New York or Philly hop on the train, it’s not that long of a train ride. Do not miss a big storm. I repeat, do not miss a big storm.

I like using wunderground to see trends and today I notice a small increase for tomorrow's storm, less liquid for Thursday, and now about 10" for Saturday. Everything trending a little better.

39 points woulda been good...

better to be heading in the right direction. My O/U was 5" and I think 6 is a good bet now.

Its been a good 2nd half here; I'm happy to share the love and not be the jackpot if it reduces suffering.

interesting to see if GYX expands warnings. If we believe NAM this is a 6-10 for most.

well in new hampshire we did well from north of Manchester without any blocking and I believe phase 7. I don't see why this would go further north than the GFS shows (which reflects the seasonal gradient basically), but what do I know.