mahk_webstah

Virga

Did you stay in a holiday inn express? just do it. Snow approaching rapidly here but dry air to overcome. Wunderground been bumping up all afternoon now predicting 14 with a range of 11-17.

The radar looks great with the first thump band and then all that moisture feeding up from the lower mid Atlantic

If it’s canceled, look for a flight to Manchester!

Hurry!!!!!!!!

Lol very. All it takes is one old fashioned and a wsw

One run is a trend?

Stronger. It gets me from like 10:30-4. I usually have this dream that I wake up and it is sunny and there’s no snow on the ground and I keep having to remind myself that isn’t real and then I finally let myself wake up.I can’t stop looking out the window and then going downstairs and deciding that of course the dog has to go out and of course I have to go with her….

Will u b awake? I have to take a sleeping pill or I’ll be up every hour

JGW!!!!

50th percentile eh? I think you do get a decent thump there

Anybody want to over/under on my highest snowpack for this season (which probably included the whole of March? So far 21". Today, 10-12 in sunny open areas and 15-20 in the woods. Similar to Dendrite's. I say the O/U is 30.

GYX likes your area.

I'll take that and up you 2" on the lollies.

isn't that simply because winds stayed up? I mean are the 850s off significantly? Most will wetbulb and the storm comes in at night.

Jeff also warned of such. As did Legro.

Define we

You are way way better at this than man, since you actually know some of the science. The reason I think 8-12 with lollies to 15 is the 3 days of consistency with snow total at that level and sometimes even higher. You are probably right, but I'm hopeful. When it comes to these sorts of storms getting to double digits though, it usually involves at least some midlevel goodies. Still time though.

Thank you! We had a beautiful pivot in the January storm. I watched on the radar and I could see what was happening, and during the pivot we had snowfall rates of like 2 inch an hour.

I’m trying to understand the role of mid-level lows because what got us are 16 inches in mid January were the track of the mid-level lows in the resulting deformation. Is this about the mid-level lows not being closed off because the main short wave is deamplifying? Sorry I know so little.

Interesting blurb from Legro. Something to watch at least for us further north, as the next couple of model cycles come out. After 12z Sat forcing starts to weaken and/or move into the Gulf of ME. This makes sense given that the parent S/WV trof is deamplifying as it moves into the region and we begin losing jet support. I feel that guidance may be too high on QPF in the 04.12z to 05.00z time period because of this. I think a continuation of light snow is likely...but the majority of accumulation will occur before mid morning. If guidance can trend towards keeping forcing strong and nearby into the afternoon...we can start to anticipate a more widespread area of 12 or more inches. Otherwise I tried to limit 1 foot totals to the juxtaposition of best WAA forcing and within the inverted trof axis Sat.

I noticed that GYX hinted that most of our snow will be from the initial band. This means the midlevel lows are tracking further north? or does it mean they don't close off?

he's still upset about that earlier storm when they had 8 and some got 18. i hope this isn't the reverse scenario...but those numbers look like most of the model runs last 2 days.

I've been thinking 8-12 with lollies to 15, which is a little less than these qpf maps would imply, assuming we have at least one period of higher ratio snow during the storm.

can't stay at the in-laws Friday night?