mahk_webstah

Stronger. It gets me from like 10:30-4. I usually have this dream that I wake up and it is sunny and there’s no snow on the ground and I keep having to remind myself that isn’t real and then I finally let myself wake up.I can’t stop looking out the window and then going downstairs and deciding that of course the dog has to go out and of course I have to go with her….

Will u b awake? I have to take a sleeping pill or I’ll be up every hour

JGW!!!!

50th percentile eh? I think you do get a decent thump there

Anybody want to over/under on my highest snowpack for this season (which probably included the whole of March? So far 21". Today, 10-12 in sunny open areas and 15-20 in the woods. Similar to Dendrite's. I say the O/U is 30.

GYX likes your area.

I'll take that and up you 2" on the lollies.

isn't that simply because winds stayed up? I mean are the 850s off significantly? Most will wetbulb and the storm comes in at night.

Jeff also warned of such. As did Legro.

Define we

You are way way better at this than man, since you actually know some of the science. The reason I think 8-12 with lollies to 15 is the 3 days of consistency with snow total at that level and sometimes even higher. You are probably right, but I'm hopeful. When it comes to these sorts of storms getting to double digits though, it usually involves at least some midlevel goodies. Still time though.

Thank you! We had a beautiful pivot in the January storm. I watched on the radar and I could see what was happening, and during the pivot we had snowfall rates of like 2 inch an hour.

I’m trying to understand the role of mid-level lows because what got us are 16 inches in mid January were the track of the mid-level lows in the resulting deformation. Is this about the mid-level lows not being closed off because the main short wave is deamplifying? Sorry I know so little.

Interesting blurb from Legro. Something to watch at least for us further north, as the next couple of model cycles come out. After 12z Sat forcing starts to weaken and/or move into the Gulf of ME. This makes sense given that the parent S/WV trof is deamplifying as it moves into the region and we begin losing jet support. I feel that guidance may be too high on QPF in the 04.12z to 05.00z time period because of this. I think a continuation of light snow is likely...but the majority of accumulation will occur before mid morning. If guidance can trend towards keeping forcing strong and nearby into the afternoon...we can start to anticipate a more widespread area of 12 or more inches. Otherwise I tried to limit 1 foot totals to the juxtaposition of best WAA forcing and within the inverted trof axis Sat.

I noticed that GYX hinted that most of our snow will be from the initial band. This means the midlevel lows are tracking further north? or does it mean they don't close off?

he's still upset about that earlier storm when they had 8 and some got 18. i hope this isn't the reverse scenario...but those numbers look like most of the model runs last 2 days.

I've been thinking 8-12 with lollies to 15, which is a little less than these qpf maps would imply, assuming we have at least one period of higher ratio snow during the storm.

can't stay at the in-laws Friday night?

With practically every model shift, the area from nw mass, svt, s and c nh, over to Jeff does well. That is a good sign for us who are in that general strip. Would be a complete failure of every model family if there wasn't at least a 6-12 stripe across that area. I think the chance for lollies of 15-18 is very much on the table, depending on midlevel deformation perhaps?

ended up with 3.5 new very quickly. ran the snowblower up and down the driveway to get it ready for Friday night-Saturday. Now fog and mist.

My perspective is just the dialogue about the euro and gfs. But you bringin receipts. Also perspective influenced for me and others by the MBY factor. But gfs was more right than euro today

I think the gfs has been the steady model consistently showing heavy snow NOP. It has come a bit towards the euro on the southerly extent, but the euro has caved 75% to the GFS. Fortunately up here has been in the 8+ the whole time.

GYX has 6-12+ in the zones already but no watch yet.

I expected we would lose a bit of snow pack from yesterday until the storm Friday night due to rain and 40°. At least in the woods this will end up being a net gain I would think it may be everywhere if we don’t change over

Well, most of the going forecasts, including GYX or for less than an inch, with a predominance of mixed precept. We’ve gone from dumping with huge flakes, an eighth of a mile, visibility to dumping with small to medium flakes in less than a quarter mile visibility right now. Temperatures are on the border line so it’s some point it will probably switch over but while the intensity is high looks like we could pile up a few inches we’ve got at least two if not more now