Somebody gets a very heavy band for a few hours. I don’t think that’s as far north as me, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was near the New Hampshire border.
Given this, 12z should reflect a more clear outcome, because the short waves are now fully sampled. If there’s going to be any significant north trend, it should happen this afternoon on the models.
You loves those 300 hr op runs especially when they’re warm. Maybe this is one step in the middle of a pattern progression but do you think this is really how it’s going to play out on a larger scale?
There are a whole lot of members back to the west and north along the coast but I don’t know if that’s an indication that they’re going to track closer to the coast or just that they’re slower. Would be great to find a solution that finally gives SNE a real storm all the way to the coast, but also manages to snow on most of us.
day 5-6 is usually when storms modelled as significant sort of disappear or get unclear. Then they get sampled (when does this one get sampled?). And then at day 4 (tomorrow morning) the direction gets clearer.
This is established weenie wisdom