mahk_webstah

Suppression is mediated by more than just the arctic oscillation. Like the position of the PNA ridge. Or if there’s an active southern stream and split flow. And the positioning of high-pressure around Greenland.

could mean it favors the interior via Miller Bs that shoot out of the southern stream and are forced to redevelop?

No Changes?!? Uh oh, I might owe someone an apology... But I don't believe it. Full on ahead to our new pattern! Even if it doesn't come in as even and coordinated as planned.

Be careful who you get drunk with...

The stress of the season is turning so many of us into different people. Or is it bring out the repressed parts of who we really are??!! Ray, care to comment?

Jesus it’s a week away and you people are flopping all over the place with every run. good god it’s the start of pattern change and the models are trying to sort it out.

Average temps are good for us

You found it! I’m so proudah you.

Be safe

This makes sense to me. A more interior storm before the blocking sets in too strong. Snow breaks out on Monday the 12th

Nah that blocking looks stout. Buckle up buttercup

A couple of questions if you don’t mind: Besides, a phased, coastal storm, what other kinds of events might this pattern produce? Will 50-50 be suppressive? Is there a possibility of Clipper Miller Bs in this pattern? thanks

Remember when we thought this might retrograde towards us? It was a brief thought, but here are some WebCams from Sydney Nova Scotia. https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/north-sydney-nova-scotia-ca

I understand what you are saying, and we’ve been burned a lot the last couple of years. It just doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of Contra indications right now. If there were the qanon omega and Papi would be posting those 300 hour plus operational charts. The sense I get from reading the meteorologists is that the large scale forces that are creating the upcoming pattern set up to force a good pattern. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of wiggle room. The pattern progression globally in other words, is leading us in this good direction. First snow is popping up on my weather underground app for the 11th 12/13.

Look we have a real good pattern setting up. The threats will start to show themselves in a few days. For now maybe signals? But all that matters is the larger scale setup and how stable the pattern looks. Looks like there will be be threats unless there is suppression. I don’t expect to see anything serious until maybe Tuesday or Wednesday, perhaps for the 12th?

You and across to Delaware got that early morn heavy wwa but we caught up in the afternoon.

PD 1 was the greatest snowstorm of my childhood in Dover DE. 25” with 5” an hour rates. It followed 16” in the ‘78 storm and I was hooked! But it set the expectations high. PD2 in center city Philly. 18” and a lot sleet at the end. Great storm but a lot of sand and small flakes. im all in for PD 3.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we swing back to some real and even severe winter for several weeks. I know Ray wants to cut it off soon, but we are living in a time of extreme. It seems and I kind of expect us to get the cold snowy side that at some point.

I am sad to hear this. I was hoping you might challenge him to a duel.

Honestly I’ve been figuring that we won’t go more than two weeks between precipitation so if I had to bet, I would say something comes in sooner than Valentine’s Day. even if it is a cutter or SWFE

Couldn’t you find the least one that was warm at least, or at somehow connected to Southeast Atlantic Ridge to the Nao Ridge? come on man…

Watch out for the tree avalanches! My husband calls them travalanches

Exchange rate with a dollar I think it’s quite strong and the first two weeks of February are their winter carnival, which is spectacular

If you going to waste one of your 5 posts, why not use it for something additive? We already know odds are low for anything before Feb 12. What do you think is going happen mid-month? And how long do you think it will last? Is the another "No Changes" or is it "No. Changes." Think of a continuum, with "total troll" at one end, and "contribution of value" at the other end. Where is this post along the continuum? And how might we shift more towards the "value" end of our continuum?

When blocking is strong, and not transient, does it not tend to lock in for a bit? My worry is suppression if the 50-50 and NAO block are too far south. But even then we'd probably get a storm up here as the pattern sets in and one as it leaves and maybe something in the pulses.