mahk_webstah

thats not a pack destroyer, for sure. Nighttime lows, and I bet many low dewpoints. Hell, we had a few low 40s days since the 25" in 6 day period and what the pack does is melts a bit, but really consolidates and then solidifies. I still have 15-18+ in the woods and a foot in much of the fields. Resilient up here at this time of the year, unless we get heavy rain and high dews.

Both the simplicity and the end result of the Euro appeal to me. Maybe GFS still gettin its shite together

So that is Friday night-Sunday? Before, some models were Thurs-Friday, and I think the Euro was Sunday. So now we are sort of in-between, and consolidated to one system?

That should be rounded to -20 Gene, for posterity.

lol on the parrots. Maybe the lantern bugs in PA and NJ will be stalled a bit. Or maybe a diminishing of the emerald ash borer for a year. We need to go into a cold cycle. Global warming or not, we can still get a decadal cycle or something, that is more consistently on the cold side. Something short of the end of the gulf stream I hope.

That seems right to me. It is a question of what is on the map that would push this in one direction or another. For example if there was blocking or confluence possibly in place, we would look at colder and further east as a distinct possibility. I know yesterday Will mentioned a high building in as the storm developed to our sw. That seems like a good option. I also notice that the 10-day has consistently for 3 days shown the temps cooling significantly from Friday to Sunday. Also notice that day 7 WPC now has some snow probs (slight, but new) from northern mass up into NNE.

Hopefully there’s some invasive bugs in species that are being held back by this, particularly in southern New England, were there isn’t snow-covered to protect

The difference from here at -15 and sne is not significant. And there’s a deep snowpack here. What is impressive to me is that we’ve been teens below zero for about 10 hours so far.

I hope the dog dropped a few, and quickly

Was outside for 3 minutes. Yikes. Dog seemed okay though

Bye bye peaches

Sounds like WPC is leaning to a slower evolution late week. Two general forecast scenarios seem to exist in guidance with recent GFS/Canadian runs showing run to run stream separation leading to an upper low closing off in the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday-Wednesday that is stronger then slower to eject downstream through the east-central U.S. next week compared to the ECMWF/UKMET. Ensemble members by and large showed similar progression trends as their parent models with the GEFS/Canadian/NAEFS ensemble means less progressive than the ECMWF ensemble mean. This remains a difficult emerging split flow forecast with low predictability, but still suspect that a solution on the less progressive side of the full envelope of guidance makes more sense given much guidance does develop a separated southern stream system of which often are on the slow side to eject.

This is a quite a phenomenon we get to experience, falling from 12 at sunrise to -5 at sunset. That is very rare. I'm glad it doesn't last long, but it will help the people who like to get out on the lakes and ponds for entertainment, and it holds the snow on the trails for the folks who've been out on sleds the last couple weeks. Just staying inside until the gym calls later, and getting work done. Looking forward to nice walks later on Saturday and particularly Sunday, on top of a very solid, consolidated 10-15" snowpack.

Lol, not up here.

dropped earlier this morn then level for a couple hours...now dropping quickly again. When is the secondary front that gives the next push down? Closest below 0 I see is Gene's area near Plymouth.

3 waves involved here? In past winters if there were a progression of 3 waves over a 4-6 day period, I would assume the middle one is more likely to be something bigger. Please no big storm on Super Bowl Sunday.

I think the mid feb warmup will be fast and dramatic, like a January thaw. But I’m convinced we then turn cold and snowy to end, with some Atlantic help. Maybe we final melt out mid March.

If we get a snow or 2 before it will be great.

Bummer that could be fun. A few years ago both Brian and I got hit by what I thought was a squall but it sort of was a streamer. Very rare, he got 7 inches. I got about five. I don’t know if the air behind the front will be connected to any water source.

Squalls?

exactly my living situation. perfetto.

They’re not playing up the idea of squalls too much up here but you have to take a situation like this. Bring some heavy ones

I use revisions in New Hampshire and I can tell you it was one of the best investments we’ve made. Sorry to hear of others’ problems but everyone I know is very pleased with theirs’

Is that the same EPS that showed us with like 3 to 5 feet of snow at the end of its runs month ago?

I’d welcome it too. A couple of more snow events to bump up the pack, a mid month heatwave to melt out and then maybe one more nice period of winter, get the -nao done by april, and then summer!