We just need that secondary to pop early enough according to GYX, to keep us mostly snow up here. Says those features don’t show themselves till closer to the event. But wpc does have secondary at 992 just south of LI while 988 over ne pa
9.7 is the exact number my wunderground page for Boscawen NH is showing. It is like 4 or 5 days in a row now that I've had between 8 and 11 inches forecast for Sunday night and Monday.
sure it does. 6-8 hour thump and then the warming aloft coincides with the dry slot. Think SWFE coming from the south into a very cold antecedent airmass.
take the average of the 6z eps and 12zgefs and lean it west towards the UK and GGEM and that is our new status quo. The Euro then gets to decide the 12Z average outcome, and then onto 18Z. Still a ways to go and to trends.
This map shows what I am trying to communicate. The big deform far west, but then the band over south central NH which would be the 6 hour qpf bomb followed by some pivoting while the area towards Ray dryslots.
I am used to big defom bands in VT and NYS. That seems inevitable with this one. But still, if it trends east a bit more and head over the Cape, I would think the big nw to se very heavy band that Chris describes will start to pivot/rotate while areas s and e will dry slot. Is that scenario reasonably possible?
Depending upon the ultimate track, somebody will get the thumpity dumpity, but then also a pivot while those to the s and e get slotted. And then there will be deformation way way n and w. the 12+ will in the pivot I would think, yes?
What I really mean is that to assess the current status quo we compromise gefs and eps with a lean towards other model output. Every 6 or 12 we shift the status quo using these guidelines.