mahk_webstah

it hasn't been so bad up here....decently cold and some snow. But 50 miles to my south it is another story.

Well no Scott and no Will and no post for 2 hours. That says it all. I will say though that WPC does have all of NE down to Philly in the low end risk for frozen precip over .25 on Sunday but I think that is ana frontal and will go away on the next update.

Now we're talking! thats the torch you referred to earlier. If that ends up as the mean for that period, every single met I've read is wrong about the pattern over the last month, and where it was headed. And those are the educated ones! The weenies, well.... But I should add that how could anyone have foreseen this progression given what the analogs and models of all kinds have been putting out?

It is good to know if you are positive. It could affect when you decide to get a booster.

Congrats Quebec City! For those of you who haven't been there, it is the best place for a winter vacation on this continent. Lots of snow, very old city with all sorts of monumnents to wars on this contintent over the last 400 years. Feels like Europe, with French spoken, but very friendly with English speakers. Amazing food and great charm and walking. Winter carnival at start of February last for 2 weeks and is well worth it. I think the USD is still strong against the CD. Go and your weenie needs will be met. Romantic as hell so bring the significant other and that last sentece will have multiple meanings.

so we just need to get the airmass refreshed behind the first wave? What is the timing on these if you don't mind?

would the first or 2nd wave help with the antecendent airmass? I was reading that that was the main problem for the weekend and early next week.

It usually doesn't happen, but stuff has been changing around alot these days even insider of 4-5 days. Maybe something will shift for the weekend/early next week.

it is the 6.5" of really thick meaty snowpack up here that makes this tolerable. But if we don't get at least 6" of powder on top of this in the next week or 10 days, it will become a PITA. Up here we are on the edge but still optimistic. Deep winter look outside this morning on the walk.

I was ready to cancel on Xmas last year when my 28.5 inches melted off in 7 days.

3 or 4 degrees above normal is a torch in the 50s? I'm probably misinterpreting the map.

Winnuh winnuh chicken dinnuh

We like the cold air source nearby especially when there is a SE ridge that pushes he storm track up our way. You don’t like where you sit in that gradient? It’s not a Miller A party but that is swfe and Miller b city

To me that looks good and would that not produce regular snowfall events across New England so perhaps not large ones unless we get something to dig in phase Miller b

But with blocking don’t we see a trend south or something towards redevelopment along the coast that helps out many or at least some?

Love that you did that. Brian and I live above 600 ft which makes a real difference to even the level at 93 along the river. He’s a few miles north of me though so he usually has slightly more snow but I think there’s a good 6 inches on the ground and it is definitely meaty. I’m hoping the week will be additive and then will get a big storm at some point

On my ride back home. Graupelly light snow here in SW CT at 36 degrees

It’s generally good, although when we have a full PNA and a strong 50-50 we get screwed over. But you’re right in this situation we have a nice wintery landscape and maybe a great base if we don’t haw too much

And another 1-2 tonight? A bit more mixed Thursday? And then a question mark but probably at least somewhat frozen as the new year starts? That’s a solid pack that one 6-10 inch storm makes very nice

I think 12/17/08 Give me about 5 inches, followed by about 12 inches on the 19th and another 14 inches on the 21st

From WPC overnight: A blocky and amplified ridge/upper high anchored over the northern Pacific should finally begin to break down and weaken next weekend. Before that though, renewed troughing (and chilly weather) will continue across the Western U.S., including a southern stream closed low near southern California Thursday-Friday. An initial northern stream shortwave will send one system across the Great Lakes/Northeast late this week, but by the weekend a stronger system (and northern Pacific ridge weakening) should finally allow for a pattern shift as amplified troughing shifts into the central U.S. and the East

Button pushet

And HRRR maybe 2. Not much of anything in the zones though but these are 18z

Wow if that happens that would be great! I would really hate to come home to the condition of my driveway and walkway looks like right now. Do you really think we might get a few inches overnight? I haven’t seen any forecast of that but I would trust what you have to say more than most.Wow if that happens that would be great!

I think we can make a distinction between a Direct cause and a relevant factor. Certainly climate change by itself isn’t causing any particular winter weather event or not. But there are thousands and millions of factors and forces that create the weather and climate changes influencing those, so why there’s no direct causation there’s certainly an influence on our weather all the time when conditions are changing. It doesn’t need to be an either or a conversation I shouldn’t be in my opinion