mahk_webstah

That’s gotten shittier up here, now I see why Brian is closing shades

Sounds right. An Airbnb cabin in a spot that does well in nor’easters . And with a good hiking trail and cute town nearby. Hell you could even go to New Hope or Lambertville and be able to walk around

It could trend North a little bit more and that would help a lot of us except for maybe James. In my view anything over 5”is a win up here. Gonna be a blast for you guys

Did it trend north?

I am more hopeful about that than usual. That is the weenie pattern recognition I mentioned yesterday. The weenies don’t always have the deep scientific knowledge but we follow these things so closely that we have a sense of what usually happens.

We patienting

I was in the jackpot in 79. I grew up in Dover Delaware and we got 25 inches and a pretty awesome 5 in./h. And drifting. It was awesome awesome awesome. And it came after the blizzard of 78 the year before so I was about 15 years old I was totally hookedI

I’ve been feeling this way for 2 days, just based on weenie pattern recognition. But I think we’ll know in the morning or maybe 12z. That being said I over under number is 5 inches. Anything over 5 inches is a win in anything under sucks

I appreciate that you are using reasoning in your thought processes. I just feel like I’ve seen so many of these situations over the year particularly this far out, that it just starts to trend a little bit then a little more further north. Unless there is an overriding truly dominant feature to shove everything east. It doesn’t seem to me that there’s enough going on up north to shove this east but the short wave sampling later tonight will tell us a lot because in order for it to come norththe sw does have to be strong it would seem

Even with the 5050

I will only cave when I see 12z tomorrow

from Walt Drag in the NYC forum re the NAM (his comments bolded at bottom): Report post Posted 21 minutes ago Absolutely! The questions continue going forward, will it hold? I took a look at the 500MB pattern at 84 hours...modeling a 140 kt jet up over Quebec Wednesday evening and plenty of sw flow back to OHIO at 500MB. I'm pretty sure this says northern solution.

seems like a reasonable answer

I dunno, but it doesn't seem like overwhelming blocking. 1035 in Quebec is strong but.... Seems like the keys for us up here are: 1. strong shortwave will tend to try to tuck and will be muscular pushing north. wasn't there a 1050 high on top of '78? 2. if things are on the slower side, more time for the 50-50 to move since it isn't a stuck feature. I don't think a 1035 without a stationery 50-50 and a strong GL block is enough to just shove it out. However, I am weeniologist...

That is what it feels like. We’ll probably know when we wake up tomorrow, though some of will know as they sit on the can at 2am, spouses seeing the weenie cell phone glow from under the bathroom door.

And god knows you’ll find a way to get some far NW deformation band followed by upslope and then 4 inches of powder from a moose fart. but it seems there is a real chance for further north action. I have 5 inches as my over under right now.

It’s all about trading PFs Fanny for James’s

We’ve got probably the best collection of ne snowfall expertise on this forum, anywhere, and it is concentrated in the New England sub forum. And then we’ve also got the best weenieologists

I really like reading g Chris’s discussions: of the attention in the forecast period remains on Wed night into Thu. The pattern continues to look very favorable for a period of heavy precip across the Northeast as a strong S/WV trof makes a run at strong high pressure anchored N of New England. That is a recipe for strong frontogenesis in the WAA ahead of the S/WV. The question locally will be just how far N does that forcing make it. Ensemble guidance continues to show the majority of the spread N of the storm track...suggesting that members are struggling with the influence of high pressure to the N. Indeed ensemble sensitivity products show that the GEFS pressures on the N side of the system are sensitive to both the S/WV itself but also the confluent flow at H5 supporting the high pressure. I am not ready to make strong commitments one way or another at this time...as the S/WV in question will just be moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest later this evening. As sounding network gets a better sample of the height fields tonight confidence in model guidance can start to grow a bit. The 13.00z GEFS took a big step back from significant QPF locally...but still has around a third of the members will some measurable accumulation. The 13.00z ECMWF EPS remains robust with QPF for much of the area. With that in mind I will continue to blend in some high PoP to the baseline NBM forecast...especially for Srn zones. The real tough part of the forecast will be on the Nrn edge of the precip shield...which undoubtedly will be located somewhere in the forecast area. Forecast soundings show a nice dry wedge of air in the mid levels. This will hang tough given the location of high pressure...and I expect some evaporation to eat away at that Nrn edge of precip. I could foresee some sharp gradients on the N side...but at this time it is too early to worry about exact snowfall amounts in that detail.

Wpc has slowly shifted south with the highest snow probabilities. Looks like there’s still a shot at something decent up here but the probabilities are really high for the far north and west suburbs of Washington Philadelphia New York and then over into southern New England. And their projected QPF numbers for esne are high as well, somewhere between one and a half and 2 inches over the next seven days. I still think this might trend north just a little bit but that’s probably just wishful thinking.

what is the trend since their last run? will be interesting to see if any trends develop this afternoon, given a pretty consistent look across models so far.

Lotta time left for tics

Going to be on the line up here. Seems like there’s probably an historical tendency to nudge this northwest a little bit, especially since it seems to be more of an interior job down towards Philly. I guess it’s the strength and position of the position of the block and how strong it is against analogs. Happy to see Chris at GYX leaning towards Northwest nudges. I see the boxing day storm is a classic occluded nudge east northeast the mountains to screw us over up here

One of our friends at gym thinks north trend anchored to our N...current deterministic runs just brush the forecast area with stronger forcing and resulting QPF. Given the antecedent air mass in place...this is looking like an all snow scenario. Much like yesterday the ensemble system all have significant spread...and this spread is mainly on the Nrn side of the storm track. With the offending S/WV trof still over the Pacific Ocean...and more robust sampling of the upper features not expected until Sun at the earliest...I expect run to run shifts in track to continue. Based on the spread pattern...I do expect some of these shifts to be farther NW and bring more QPF to the local area. I have once again opted for a 10 to as high as 20 percent increase over NBM PoP in Srn zones with the anticipation of poleward shifts with time. It would not take too much movement to bring the strongest forcing into extreme Srn zones...so this will be one to watch over the weekend.

WPC map for three days has had probabilities for snowfall that went well up into northern New England. I don’t think they have seen this as a southeast slider, Can you guys keep talking about the mid levels which always excites me