mahk_webstah

There is still more to come for Jeff after this I think.

1.25 although I'll be watching online from a hotel in London or somewhere else they fly me to. Maybe I can get into JFK, rent a car and take the route up 91 and the back way home through Keene. Won't be a blizzard there.

There was a fairly persistent modeled band across northern Merrimack County that went near and just north of me over to Brian. That was in the models for a few days but didn't make the forecast. I thought it was signal though, just like the low qpf spots that are often persistently modeled.

We pack. CFS ftw

A storm that has been projected to be so deep for a week now is likely to end up on the west end of the model projections I think. Historic maybe all-time for some spots.

Sometimes the big early looks come back

The king is risen and now all the little models will fall in line

Ur in the game for 30

Looks like it’s coming into the golf me and not slipping east and south

I wonder what is causing the CMC and UK to go off more e and s? For many days looked like a hooking into the GOM

I don't think that is political, and I imagine it helps manage the ups and downs of model whiplash

One of the red taggers yesterday I think kept mentioned the intense inflow that would push the moisture further n and w and modelled. Is that no longer on the table? Or some sort of deformation out further n and w?

I just try to be present What is time anyhow.

Well, there are no other options unfortunately. It is not a matter of wind, it is only a matter as to whether Logan will have runways clear. My hope is to get in the air and if we can't land to divert and then I'll rent a car and drive home. I thought the models had slowed some though. I am hoping the worst conditions will be more than 2-8pm. Maybe depends on where the stall and capture happens.

5 hours a head of you all, over here in London. My God I went to bed after the 18Z came out and I thought it was seriously game on. Then woke up this morning to the 0Z and felt the deflation in my bits, just back from my work and now it looks better. Jeez. It is Thursday morn and there are still 2.5 model cycles to see a significant push west, before the risk of messenger ticks. When we first started tracking this, it was a beast. In the last few days it has gone up and down. Sometimes the coarser resolution of the long range early takes actually come back to be close to the truth in the end. Seems possible here given that every mini-trend to move it east has been countered. A strong storm = more chance to create ridging, tuck in and stall. If that happens we all win, and I think its a real possibility.

sojmetimes the weenies know when its going to shite. its like a deep emotional pattern recognition that a model analysis can't capture. Euro surely surely goes east, or else has a way to solve that PV problem

I wonder if the ensemble sensitivity shifts from the NS sw to the PV pressing down. What drives the pressing down of the PV? Is it something over the North Atlantic?

the confluence Brian was talking about

I will be in a plane Saturday and let you know how it is working out at 5K.

Chris seems to think it is more about the NS

For most it would be difficult to accept 10" gracefully.

I will not accept 4-6 gracefully. I'll have a mean and nasty melt and say bad words.

they didn't. it's getting worse?

Apparently WPC didn't get the memo on strong inflow pushing qpf far north and west. Their .75+ line only catches a little bit of SE NH and maybe 1/3 of Mass and half of CT. Ray and Boston are 1-1.25 but the SE MA folks get the 1.5+

? that looks really east, well east of BM. Well, woof Hazey