mahk_webstah

Snowing pretty hard out here. I’m kind of surprised to be frank. And the radar Returns that are blowing up over North Central Massachusetts and starting to move north are really really impressive. Quite a dynamic storm with lots of wind now maybe two or 3 inches here

Hopefully about 90 miles north. Decent snow here. Might be 2"

gyx not enthusiastic on snow for Friday, but it was not much of a discussion today

just a little swirley whirley huh?

is that curl in SJersey the coastal low, or a meso low?

can you post it?

God its taking forever to get started up here, but its on schedule. Just feel like I've been looking at observations for 24 hours and nothing yet imby. That is a really solid band of precip slowing building north.

I'll let you know when it gets up here to exit 17

radar says you are snowing and I'm about to start. snowing there?

Epicosity inbound?

Yes but why would we be forecasted for 6-8 on a 1"+ qpf. What I don't understand in the snow hole in Merrimack county with more to our immediate east and our immediate west. We don't get shadowed or down sloped in east flow, but do in nne flow. sorry for another question. GYX: Starting first with the main band...later today into tomorrow morning, upper level jet dynamics will phase well with mid-level mesoscale forcing along a warm frontal axis sailing north over the region...producing a band of moderate to heavy snowfall. This band crosses the Mass border into southern NH by this evening with heavy snowfall (rates of 1-2"/hr) and impacts to the evening commute. The band will track north through the area overnight, reaching the international border by mid-day Tuesday. The strongest forcing and thus highest snowfall totals with this band will be over southern zones and along the coast, closest to the mid- level circulation near the Mid- Atlantic coast. Hires model guidance gives 1-1.5" of QPF for these areas... with snow ratios around the climatological norm, this produces up to around a foot of snow for southern New Hampshire into southwest Maine with 6-8" a good bet elsewhere.

I can understand if we get substantially lower amounts once the coastal banding starts to crank But I’m not sure why Merrimack County would get lower amounts from the initial warm advection band coming straight from the south. That should be fairly uniform and GYX is saying 1 to 1.25 in that band. Why would we do worse on a van moving straight up from the south?

Not sure why this set up in particular is so extreme with the qpf hole from nut to you.

1st run of anything in a while that hasn’t had a qpf hole for Brian Gene and I

Translate? That would hurt us no?

That's exactly how I've been thinking, mostly because of the lower qpf in Merrimack county on most models for 3-4 days. clear signal from most models just like banding signals for us for a few days before dec16 17. Also zones say north winds her not NE, and that's not good. Could be boxing day sand. Euro qpf overnight was better tho so maybe we luck our way to a foot.

Thank you. The deform back west doesn’t fully show up on the snow map but I’ve seen it many times. I won’t complain about 6-8 but would for 2-4

Ok I finally have to ask...,Is that area of lower snow totals in the western half of Merrimack County New Hampshire, from Concord west and north a real thing? I have to guess it is because it is showing up on almost every piece of guidance. Perhaps it’s a shadowing on a northeast wind from mountains? But that should only happen on the north northeast wind.

You have to think if there is room to come north then it will. Isn't that what usually happens?

Even so the euro gave 4+ for many in s and c nh . I hope that is the floor. Maybe the ceiling is 12

Also GYX mentions strength of Canadian highre ens sensitivity. I know that’s a part of the confluence along with today’s ULL

What is that

As long as there is no clear strong feature to continue the s and e trend, I will go with climo n and w trends and better baroclinity further north.

As long as the hook is modelled I have hope, because then small adjustments north and west have big impacts, and the location of a deformation band gets interesting. Is it still a big wide h5 with expansive precipq?

The runs this day will give us some answers. I think everything is onshore today and we are 72 hours out. I have no clue but am anticipating3-6 here