mahk_webstah

The region in general should invest in Tuesday, though some may reap a reward on Sunday.

My moneys on that one

Wpc is more on the Tuesday deal

it was funny.

I support this melt....

This is a long period of blocking we are in. Wouldn't be surprised to see it end with a bang.

I don't know...I've seen the NAM often be the canary in the coal mine with storms at this point, and be the first to show a big shift. It seems this pattern is one where a number of the mets and serious hobbyists like yourself, have said that big shifts will happen quickly as more data is assimilated. Not every time, but it happens a lot. I guess we'll see where we are by about 1pm.

I will humbly accept my 30.

Kinda thinking that Friday overperforms up here. I'm thinking 3-5 more than 1-3. Don't know why I feel this will happen but I do for some reason.

You can always tell when Chris does the GYX discussion. Great discussion, to the point and detailed. Nice analysis! Oh, and we should be optimistic too.

what you DO fear and what you SHOULD fear are 2 different things...

Hey maybe the models are doing what they sometimes do....they see potential for a big storm and it comes and goes on runs, but then at some point it comes back but maybe a couple days later than planned. The model sees the potential but has a hard time narrowing in on the details given the fast flow and blocking.

Ok, now we focus on Friday and Tuesday, and Tuesday hedges towards colder due to the set up. All still within 7 days. Any signs for what happens next? Still going into deep arctic chill?

Why not a fast mover that gets out quickly on Sunday evening, and then something Tuesday? I mean, if we are going to ask Mother Nature to make a schedule change for us, why not be greedy?

"It could happen"

He has an advanced degree in weenieology!

Heathuh and tip sittin in a tree...

Maybe Friday gets a little bit better for some, Sunday goes out to see and then the Monday Tuesday deal is realMaybe Friday gets a little bit better for some, Sunday goes out to see and then the Monday Tuesday deal is real

snow here that has gotten moderate. I've been on a call for 2 hours so I'm not sure what impact it had in terms of accum.

I’m glad to see that given the euro is a hugger. They’ll probably move towards each other a bit.

I don’t know, looking at the radar it looks to me that it is an expanding precipitation field and it’ll get us eventually. My wunder ground app is predicting 1 to 3 inches. It’s surprising to me how often there’s no forecasts are very accurate so we’ll see. But I bet we get into some steady or snow this afternoon

I figure Friday is a no big deal, but it might help solidify the pack a bit and then I am hopeful for Sunday Monday as well. Seems like a good signal, that we might be walking the line a bit it’s a risk I’d rather take than having something go out to sea

Would be nice to have a Miller A not screw us up here. They are simpler to forecast too, kinda like swfe

I had about 6. Denser than I thought. Good base pack for the rest of the winter given the extended forecast. Oddly, I didn’t feel angry or jealous or frustrated even though we only got 6 inches in the storm. I’m glad all the others got it and I’m kind of happy to have something that I can walk in. And it’s really beautiful, the way it’s stuck to everything in the trees in the woods

The overnight from WPC seems like a good way to think about the next 10 days. Here are some snippets: Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 211 AM EST Tue Feb 02 2021 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 05 2021 - 12Z Tue Feb 09 2021 ...Major Arctic Outbreak for the Central and Eastern U.S... The latest medium range models and ensembles offer reasonably well clustered mid-larger scale guidance. The upper pattern will highlight an amplified ridge over the eastern Pacific/Alaska and an amplified longwave trough over central North America. A series shortwaves will dig to the lee of the ridge to reinforce the mean trough position. This will allow for a significant intrusion of Arctic air to overspread and hold a firm grip on much of the central and eastern U.S.. Shortwave details often prove difficult to pinpoint at medium range time scales, but offer multiple opportunities to induce frontal waves and swaths of wintry precipitation in the widespread cold airmass. This energy and subsequent systems will dive into an amplified central U.S. upper trough position this weekend into next week and produce periodic swaths of snows. This will correspond with two main surges of a frigid arctic airmass with much below normal temperatures with some record values fully southward through the central then eastern U.S.. Trough and cold air reinforcement will interact with the lingering wavy front over the Southeast/East to favor Piedmont/coastal rains and inland snows from the OH Valley/Appalachians to the Northeast, though there is much uncertainty with possible coastal storm development from the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast late in the weekend to early next week, but the ingredients seem present.