mahk_webstah

Kinda sad about the ice. I was hoping to enjoy another week or two of snow. Oh well, we’ll see how it trends today. Don’t have much hopefully, when those warming temperature aloft start showing up on guidance they usually come even if the service verifies colder.

Didn’t think this one would go to shite but so it may be.

basically my wunderground has been between 12 and 18 for about 5 days. My over under is 15. Euro looks like WPCs qpf numbers.

the gulf is open for bidness

I clearly have not been following that one closely enough. But yeah we know those types of changeover scenarios...a nice heavy thump then a big of sleet and drizzle.

I would think this would trend a bit colder no? We'll see about the pellets, but anyhow should be 2 warning level events. I've been watching the WPC Qpf all week and it has been trending upwards. I want to enjoy a few days of deep pack before spring comes.

Man the new WPC QPF is getting higher for NNE. For Dendrite-land it looks like maybe .75 for the Monday Tuesday deal and then 1.25 for the Thurs Fri deal. With any help on ratios, which we might get, that is 2 feet in about 4 days.

Gyx not impressed with far rain up here and has us all snow. But even euro and gfs mean 6" snow then ice then warning level snow 36 hours later...flowing one warning into another for days and days

What were the rough totals for the week? I didn't see any of it

Also I just wouldn’t expect this pattern to Collapse completely. I would expect an echo pattern for a few weeks before it totally leaves

God doesn’t really give a crap about this. You should pray to ULLR

As Brian said yesterday we are happy to flirt with the warmth up here for a little while. I’d love to get another week and a half or two of winter and then have it warm up. But there’s been signs for a while that we would go back into the cold with the NAO. Even if a model or two shifts for a day or two, quite often we go back to the prior output as we all know very well.

Remember it very well as it was my first winter in Webster New Hampshire. On the Wednesday we had about 5 inches and then a total of 26 more inches from the Friday and Sunday storms. 31 inches total in five days. I thought it was going to be like that every winter LOL. We have a real shot at it this week and I think it’s good that we are flirting a bit with the snow mix line for the late week. Good for Jeff.

Well Abraham, Sarah, Moses and the like would have something to say. And my grandmother? Oy vey I also should say that I’m very glad Judaism doesn’t involve confession.

Ahhhhhh good luck with that. God’s Forecast System?

Now it’s Monday? This pattern seems hard to forecast. It could snow anytime, or not

what is the popecast for this coming week? Do I have to take communion to see it because that would be a problem.

why are we worried about the old GFS 6 days out?

Legro knows snows

Chris gave good guidance on Sunday. A minor event but he thinks it will snow. I'm bullish on the whole week next week. Could be epic. 6-10 in the fields here and 8-14 in the woods. Could have 2' solid snowpack by next weekend with no big melt in sight.

This is a great track for all of us, let’s see what other guidance says but the gfs being south doesn’t concern me at this point

Good discussion by Chris at GYX. You can always tell when he or Ekster write it. Forecast Details: Ensemble guidance continues to show strong support for a high PoP/low QPF event Sun night. S/WV trof will traverse the Srn edge an anomalously deep upper low over Srn Canada. Confluent flow over the Northeast will tend to inhibit further strengthening of the wave...and as a result lighter QPF is anticipated. This is also leading to higher chances for snow in S and W zones before forcing tends to weaken. I feel like model PoP is too low however despite low QPF output. So I have increased PoP in the aforementioned zones to low likely. It is beyond Sun that things become more interesting. Flow starts becoming more amplified as a series of S/WV trofs carves out the longwave pattern deeper and deeper. As these eject out of the trof and head NEwe they will offer our chances for snow. 11.00z ensemble guidance is really beginning to consolidate around Tue night/Wed system. There is yet another robust but more variance for a system Fri or Sat. As for the midweek potential...strong high pressure anchored N of New England would favor colder temps and likely predominately snow scenario. 11.00z EPS has a large majority of moderate to heavy snow members...while the GEFS runs the gamut from null events to moderate to heavy. Regardless...NBM PoP was low chance to slight chance and I feel this is way too low given the ensemble support for the last couple of days. I have increased PoP closer to 50 percent for most of the forecast area. This is both higher than climatology but not so high that I am completely discounting the drier GEFS. The end of the week potential carries much more uncertainty given that it is 7 or 8 days away. In a reversal the GEFS is actually more robust with this event than the EPS...but the NBM PoP between 30 and 40 percent seemed reasonable given how far out this is.

Looks like that does get much of New England not just the southern part, yesLooks like that does get much of New England not just the southern part, yes

Or could they be separate events where a military comes up the coast and then it’s wake us swfe follows

Does this suggest the possibility of a sort of Miller a Miller b hybrid? The northern stream one coming along with like a swfe but then re-developing into something that comes up the coast?