mahk_webstah

When does the arctic sw get sampled?

I don't have the links but I thought they were significantly different a week or so back. The Euro had a big ridge in the east, and I think was holding a decent -EPO.

So Euro wins the long range battle that was shaping up a week or so ago. Chris at GYX talks about robust qpf signal for late next week. Maybe a Rainer that accelerates the melt. But this week will only dent that pack up here. Still a lot of snow.

Off with their pack! Let them eat mud.

I detest ene motion, though I loved it as a kid in Delaware.

Will is like EF Hutton for me. When he talks, I listen.

That’s a special superpower you have. Must use it selectively.

Not happening James

Wow with weak returns that is something. Can't see what's happening at my place on the Nest. Too dark.

Ground truth better than radar. Also the forecast for mixing and changeover but is that really going to be able to happen

The Stark difference between the GFS and the EPS ensembles argues for a delayed pattern change. Maybe we make it through the 25th? I don’t know with a Canadian ensembles say

I guess the upside could be pretty high because the heavier it precip the more likely it is to stay snow. If we have light rates tomorrow it’ll probably quite mixed

The forecast seem to have gone lower and accumulations and more in rain. What’s the best case scenario in your view? I’m in London again so I’ll miss this but it’s always nice to return to fresh snow

Isn't it ironic, don't ya think The mid levels are finally cool enough north and west But the qpf beefs east where the warm air holds tough isn't it ironic, don't ya think? It's the blizzard of '78 while Jer's in Californiay, It's a 20 hour death band in Wilmington after Ray's moved away. Isn't it ironic, don't ya think? A little too ironic....

how far n and w does the torching go, if you don't mind.?

very Tip-like. I love the part about the son born 9 months later.

Overall a really a big disappointment but I look outside and something is falling and the still good pack is reinforced and cleaned. Can’t complain. Winter in rural New Hampshire.

some of us will get in on this batch in npa and eny that is well seen on the Albany radar. Maybe midlevels cool enough for all snow. we'll know soon enough

Wunderground has showed me as all snow since 8am lol

That thing isn’t moving. Chickens and Eagles in the same boat.

So freaking close!

Thank you no that is literally me just writing that in the moment. I've certainly thought about it a lot.

How do we get that radar that Brian shows, that shows the mix line? I want to see when we go back to snow.

Some suggestions for how to boundglobal warming conversations in pattern threads: The earth is warming and it is unprecedented for at least a few thousand years. This I don't think is scientifically deniable. Also, the warming is being driven largely by human activity. I don't think this is scientifically deniable. What we do from a public policy perspective is very debatable, and that is a political conversation and not for pattern threads. Climate change is overused as an explanation for what are fairly normal shifts, for example decadal changes in things like the NAO or the EPO. These sorts of shifts would be happening regardless regardless of global warming. A particularly severe individual hurricane, for example, shouldn't be explained as being because of climate change. Climate change can't be used to explain everything in weather. Pretending that it isn't really happening is at least as ignorant. The impact of a warming climate on baseline climate norms and how that could affect forecasts, for example the ever-growing Hadley Cell that threatens to take over the world, is relevant to pattern discussion. The notion that hurricanes have more heat energy to work with and thus the hurricane season might be longer and feature more severe hurricanes is relevant, because the warming oceans have more heat content with which to feed hurricanes. TThis last bullet point represents the kind of content I think we should include in the pattern threads when warranted. The prior 4 bullets just provoke political polarization.

The Eagle will fly again!!!