mahk_webstah

Explain

1st week of Feb could be special for all of that happens. This pattern change has been slow up here but progressing. Perhaps our growing snowpack will provide marginal help to SNE in a gradient.

What would it take, and do we think it is in the cards, to get some real arctic air here?

My God! Ullr take the wheel!

You are that 12.4?

Flirting with the line here yikes! Hopefully not the trend for 12z

Agree, awesome vibe. Feels like deep winter. Steely blue sky.

No change

Higher

Genug es nicht Shoyn!

You were right about the 30 hours of snow by the way. And now we have a break of about 30 hours lol

Some of you SNE folks should pick a cool pub in the Monads and go up for lunch and then a snow hike one afternoon. It’s not far away and if you go during a storm could be awesome.

Yesterday won’t melt much so coup easily be a pack of 15-20 by Thursday dark. And maybe a little bullet proofing.

If that’s mostly front end I approve. Could be 8 in 8 hours

You are still in the game for a quick thump man!

It is pretty juicy so could be a nice thump where a band sets up for a few hours. Really could be awesome up here by end of day Thursday with cold coming.

Seems the front end is where to invest even up here, as if it runs inside the coast like WPC has it, we can dry slot to drizzle.

And they hint at this possibly slipping a bit s and e, and their discussion implies a zone of heavier wolf. I bet we see more orange in the next map.

Nice overnight trends for CNE and far western SNE: WPC Recent 00Z guidance has shown a little stronger confluence over Quebec than previous runs that is limiting the northerly extent of the precipitation field. Guidance does maintain a potent upper trough over the Mid-South on approach, but the aforementioned confluent flow is forcing the trough to remain more positively-tilted in the 500mb layers by 06-12Z Monday. This is leading to the best frontogenetical forcing and strongest vertical ascent beneath the right-entrance region of the 250mb jet streak to become positioned more offshore rather than over central New England, rather than a more robust, intense FGEN setup over northern New England. Think the latest PWSSI is showing a reasonable swath of >40% probabilities of Moderate impacts from the Catskills and southern Adirondacks to the Green and White Mountains of VT and NH respectively, and across central ME. These areas can still witness some banding on the northern flank of the 850mb low as it tracks south of Long Island and off the Massachusetts Capes by early Monday morning. GYX The keys to this forecast, especially the rain/snow line, will be pinning down the track of the low- and mid-level circulations amid only a marginally-supportive air mass for snow. Ensemble consensus brings the surface low SW to NE across Cape Cod or just beyond it before deepening over the Gulf of Maine; tracks closer to the coast introduce warmer air through the low levels... although it would be an outlier solution to come close enough to the coast to jeopardize snow accumulation over the interior, especially when considering the 21.00Z solutions flowing in this morning trending southward. Thus fairly strong confidence exists for interior zones to remain all-snow, except in the warm Merrimack Valley and toward the Mass border as a whole. Even slightly more southern tracks bring snow to the Maine coast with more favorable northerly drainage flow reinforcing sub-freezing conditions in the low-levels. Latest ensemble solutions also favor a near- or just-south-of- the coast track for the mid-level circulation... leaving the coast-ward half of the forecast area in a favorable region for classic deformation/FGEN forcing... most pronounced over central/southern Maine, where the amplifying low over the Gulf of Maine will increase forcing overhead. Regardless of the circulation`s track... UVVs are likely to be concentrated in the mid-levels with a fair amount of DGZ overlap before snow falls through a deep isothermal layer...likely to be right around freezing closer to the parent circulation. Latest ENS/GEFS solutions show about a 50-70% chance of keeping this layer below freezing at the coast; while I don`t think this is enough to include the Midcoast in the watch just yet, this would be the area to look at for trends favoring a more southern low track, which may allow strongest forcing to tap into cooler air and produce strong snowfall rates on Monday.

we sliver.

not as much as you'd think.

The thing is, with these kind of systems it sucks when SNE isn't in the game because many of you lose your enthusiasm. But when SNE is in the game, then we often get fringed up here!

I've put 25K on the table but reserving 50 for Wednesday

dilf storm?

good for CNE, and maybe western SNE? From WPC snow discussion just out an hour ago: ..Northeast... Day 3... The previously noted upper low moving east of the central Rockies tonight is forecast to lift northeast and phase with a northern stream trough digging across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday. This will result in a highly-amplified trough moving east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday evening. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop along the right-entrance region of a strong upper jet and track north and strengthen along the Mid Atlantic to Northeast coast Sunday night. Additional strengthening is expected as the low moves along the New England coast into Atlantic Canada on Monday. The potential for heavy snow with this system remains high, however confidence in its placement is still limited by model spread and run-to-run discontinuities. The general trend of the 12Z guidance was toward a more a more easterly track -- supporting lighter QPF and a lesser threat for heavy snow from western to far northern New York and far northern New England. At this point, even with the more easterly track this still appears to a mostly to all rain event for the I-95 corridor up through Boston. Probabilities for snow accumulations of 8 inches or more are currently highest from the Adirondacks through interior northern New England, however with the shifting track, anticipate some changes of this axis of higher probabilities as well