mahk_webstah

Maybe our hope lies and the lack of stability in the guidance

I’ll bring the salt

Depends on who you ask I spose. Walt Drag seems enthusiastic

Wow. That’s a helluva statement.

Lots of different interpretations. WPC looks less snowy and icy until we’ll into NNE. GYX though looks pretty cold with snow and freezing rain for their areas with warm air not getting until the storm passes. They mention the possibility of a secondary forming off SNE. Maybe it is so far west with the primary that we can really warm much. Certainly not atmospheric river of high dews here.

If you move it will mostly be 1s and 2s muthafukkas

Best Lindsey buckingham.... https://youtu.be/qxfxcEH8_Co Snow fell deep and pulled me in... Pattern changed and Christmas in the bin I melted down one time i melted down 2 times Oo hoo never gonna melt again. you don’t know what it means to have drifts to your chin, and then to see it disappear agin melted down one time melted down two times Oo hoo never gonna melt again.

Wouldn’t we want to Northern Stream to get out ahead and then amplify more than forecast to create some confluence and force the second southern shortwave to come up a little more south and east?

As we know this model is helpful in sniffing out certain macro level trends

“It’s not happening James”

And with the pattern in general for weeks.

DT video on his Twitter feed is a good overview. Kinda simple for the Mets but easy to understand

How much middle ground would there be? It’s one or the other in this set up no? If we get a shift it would be substantial yes? Or there won’t be a shift. I would wait for more of the biggies to come on board or perhaps the next couple of nam runs give a clue

We’ve had really weird modeling for the last several years. Tip has spoken to this. I think we’re in the sorting out process to a new pattern and it’s gonna take a while before anything really gets clear. I think I’m gonna have significant snow by January 5

I don’t respond to this stuff much anymore but I will here. Personal attacks, though we have the right to make them in certain ways, don’t ever really work as far as I can tell. Most of us can probably agree that there’s been a lot of irresponsible behavior over the last nine months that hascaused deaths that really would’ve been unnecessary. That seems true and sad. On the other hand, people have to make their own decisions and as long as they consider their impact beyond themselves, the risk to other people, and minimize that, then that is morally acceptable. Regarding climate, I think most of us can agree that the climate is changing and the globe is warming. It’s hard to point to a specific storm and blame climate change but certainly climate change is affecting weather. I’m not sure how it could be otherwise though it’s extremely difficult to say with any degree of certainty how. Maybe we can stop the personal attacks since they don’t work anyhow and focus on the large areas of agreement and then try to have discussions in the appropriate forums about what’s truly arguable. Happy holidays everyone

Happys to everyone. Had a nice long walk across the snow fields and through the woods today so I could be with the pack. We start again soon.

when the days get longer the cold gets stronger

New from CPC and not encouraging, although the 8-14 day sounds more encouraging with systems moving into some troughing over the central and eastt: US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST December 23 2020 Synopsis: The forecast circulation during Week-2 continues to feature mid-level high pressure near the West Coast that extends northward through mainland Alaska, with mid-level low pressure over the Great Lakes and Bering Sea. Another area of mid-level high pressure is forecast south of Greenland. Surface low pressure is forecast to be intensifying near the Great Lakes at the start of the period, before shifting east of North America. During the middle to late portion of the forecast enhanced moisture from the Pacific may take aim at parts of the West Coast. Hazards Slight risk of heavy precipitation for much of the eastern U.S., Thu, Dec 31. Slight risk of high winds shifting eastward with time from the Northern and Central Plains through the Northeast, Thu-Fri, Dec 31-Jan 1. Slight risk of heavy precipitation (mostly rain, with high-elevation snow) for portions of the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and the Sierra-Nevadas, Sat-Wed, Jan 2-6. Slight risk of high winds for portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, Sat-Wed, Jan 2-6. Detailed Summary For Saturday December 26 - Wednesday December 30: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards For Thursday December 31 - Wednesday January 06: Both the tropics and extratropics are likely to have a role in shaping precipitation over North America during Week-2. La Nina continues to dominate the observed circulation and conditions over the Pacific, with the Week-2 mean 500-hPa height anomalies showing a robust positive Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern among the various ensemble suites. This supports extension of the jet across the Pacific, bringing heavy precipitation and high wind concerns to parts of the West. Over the Atlantic, the 500-hPa height anomalies project strongly onto the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. A blocking ridge is forecast in the full-field 500-hPa heights south of Greenland, which would historically help lock in colder air upstream over eastern Canada and the Northeast. Despite this favorable pattern, limited cold air appears built up over the higher latitudes of North America, much to the dismay of snow-lovers along the East Coast. At the beginning of Week-2 model guidance shows a deepening surface cyclone likely to be lifting northeastward from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes downstream of a mid-level trough. Earlier in the week there were some indications this system could redevelop off the Carolinas as a "Miller-B" nor'easter, although models have backed off this solution and are instead keeping the disturbance away from the coastal baroclinic zone. Despite the lessened concern from a system remaining over land while impacting the U.S., the origins of the disturbance fairly far south should help the feature tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This yields a slight risk for heavy precipitation (generally rain, outside of the highest elevations and portions of the Northeast) for much of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on New Year's Eve. With a tightening pressure gradient forecast on the back side of the surface low, an eastward shifting slight risk for high winds is posted on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day from the Northern and Central Plains eastward through the Northeast. Sustained winds could exceed 30 mph, while also triggering reduced visibility due to blowing snow for areas that saw frozen precipitation from the system. The positive PNA projection is likely to help advect Pacific moisture into the Pacific Northwest during the middle to end of Week-2. This results in a slight risk of heavy precipitation (generally rain, with snow for higher elevations of the Cascades and Sierra-Nevadas) during January 2-6. This is supported by calibrated reforecast guidance from both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a better than 20% of the 85th climatological percentile of precipitation being exceeded. Similar probabilities exist for at least 2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation along the immediate coast and windward facing slopes of the higher terrain during this period. The GEFS is the more bullish of the two models in terms of atmospheric river potential and coverage, with highest chances on the 3rd through 5th (generally poleward of the Oregon/California border). The ECMWF has a firmer boundary for atmospheric river chances south of this region, with its overall probabilities more muted. Since atmospheric river events historically are tied to much of the high wind hazards across the west, and additional support from reforecast guidance, an accompanying slight risk for high winds is posted on January 2-6 for coastal portions of Northern California, Oregon, and Washington state. Southerly flow is forecast across Alaska, resulting in above-normal temperatures favored for the state during Week-2. Reforecast tools show mixed wet and dry signals over southern portions of the state, although the probabilities for enhanced precipitation are fairly muted when present. Models show periodic disturbances over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska during the forecast period, although these features are often displaced in time and space from run-to-run and model-to model. Given the poor predictability, no associated precipitation or wind hazards are noted at this time. Forecaster: Daniel Harnos 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 31, 2020 - JAN 06, 2021 The week-2 500-hPa geopotential height pattern looks to feature eastward propagation, with weak troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. Near to below normal heights are forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the exception of Northern New England. Troughing is forecast to persist across the Bering Sea and western Mainland Alaska, favoring negative height anomalies for Alaska. Weak ridging favors near to slightly above normal heights over the western CONUS. With the troughing in place over much of the CONUS, the week-2 temperature forecast favors near to below normal probabilities across the southern tier of the U.S. However, there is some uncertainty over the Southwest, where the reforecast guidance is warmer than the uncalibrated guidance. Probabilities of above normal temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the CONUS, consistent with the above normal 500-hPa heights. Ridging along the West favors increased probabilities of above normal temperatures for coastal areas of the Pacific. Persistent troughing over the Bering Sea favors a continuation of southerly flow and increased above normal temperature probabilities over much of Alaska. Mean troughing over the central and eastern CONUS favors periodic shortwave disturbances propagating through the mean flow, bringing increased precipitation chances over the eastern CONUS. Below normal precipitation probabilities are increased for the Southwest, Rockies, Great Plains and western Great Lakes, behind the mean trough axis and underneath anomalous northwesterly mid-level flow. Precipitation chances are forecast to increase across the Pacific Northwest, as depicted in the GEFS reforecast tool. Troughing across the western Gulf of Alaska favors increased near to above normal precipitation probabilities across southeastern Mainland Alaska and the Panhandle, with ridging favoring increased odds of below normal precipitation across central and western parts of the Mainland. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Yesterday's 12z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to increasing uncertainty in the mid-level height pattern in the week-2 period, combined with weak and conflicting temperature and precipitation signals in the guidance. FORECASTER: Qin Z

Was walking all over the fields and into the woods today. Basically open exposed-to-sun fields have 8-12, less sunny fields 10-14, woods probably 12-16. It isn't the fluff it once was, very compressed and dense now. I expect the sunny parts of the fields to be green/brown by Friday afternoon but to retain snow elsewhere. Will be happy to see our 1500' driveway which goes up a hill, be clear. I was feelling very envious reading the zones from MSP Erie and Western NY. but of course I have nothing to complain about...

should we maybe wait and see how this plays out over the next couple weeks?

When it all goes to shite, there's a point at which I let go of expectations and just focus on other things. Fortunately, it is the holiday season so it is much easier to focus on other things. I think there is a good chance we get back on track soon. For the sledders sake, lets hope the base on the trails in the woods stays and solidifies, and then they'll have a fun winter and I'll get some good walks.

lol just saw this after I commented same.

Tip are you this week's Pope? At least you'll stay in the thread...

An artistic, comedic, and rhetorical masterpiece

30 is the new foot