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IUsedToHateCold

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Everything posted by IUsedToHateCold

  1. IUsedToHateCold
    The problem with comparing maps, indices, and analog years is that even if the anomalies are very similar, they are usually not exactly the same. Those tiny differences matter. Don’t stick a fork in it.
  2. IUsedToHateCold
    Another 3 inches per radar. I’ve now got a leak in my roof. Can I send this rain somewhere else!?
  3. IUsedToHateCold
    The cold pool in the GOA is definitely a difference, even if the rest is a good match. 50-51 was a lackluster year for Baltimore. 6.2 inches for the season.
  4. IUsedToHateCold
    72 degrees and humid out. Light to moderate rain at times.
  5. IUsedToHateCold
    The eyes of doom are set on me
  6. IUsedToHateCold
    The trend I see in Nina years for our area is small to moderate events. They're mostly suppressed and clip our area from the S/E, favoring areas east of the fall line but not packing a huge amount of punch in terms of totals. We also see plenty of cutters and systems impacting PA. We seem to be lacking big epic storms like 2016 in these years, but we can nickle-and-dime ourselves to around climo (slightly below or above)
  7. IUsedToHateCold
    Yeah, pretty hard. Beyond ENSO, what kind of ENSO (where exactly are the hot/cold anomalies situated)? There's also all the other teleconnections: QBO, PDO, IOD, etc... These may very well be the tip of the iceberg as well, for if this were truly easy, then with the powerful computers and tools available we would have solved forecasting seasonal anomalies already and this discussion would be moot. Even if this season is mostly a bust in terms of a shutout pattern, the other thing to remember is that the transition periods between pattern regimes may provide chances which have to be factored into consideration. When those transitions will happen is anybody's guess. That's why I keep saying there is a considerable luck factor involved.
  8. IUsedToHateCold
    I hold out some hope for this winter. There are just so many factors involved it’s hard to predict. Then there is always dumb luck. We will see how things look in November.
  9. IUsedToHateCold
    Deluge down here in the swamp.
  10. IUsedToHateCold
    Mix of sun and clouds here. My area has done quite well for severe this year between the tornado and the microburst a couple of weeks ago, so I'm kind of expecting something. Let's hope this run comes without any power outages.
  11. IUsedToHateCold
    To make a totally unscientific guess, the predominant Nina state over the past 22 years (11 out of 22 years) is a global feedback mechanism to cool the globe in response to climate change. I wouldn't be surprised at all if there is a 4th Nina after this one, or that the next 7 out of 10 winters are Nina winters. If right, it will make winter forecasts easier in one way.
  12. IUsedToHateCold
    Tendency for suppression during Ninas. There have been two major snowstorms in NC in December in the past 12 years: 2010 and 2018, 2010 was a Nina year.
  13. IUsedToHateCold
    Nope. Just an ordinary T-storm.
  14. IUsedToHateCold
    I’m not thrilled by the idea of a front loaded winter, especially if the Niña holds. I think we would see a couple of small events in December with the possibility of a massive storm for NC. Better chances for a bigger event would be in late Feb or March. We could roll lucky though. We can always roll lucky.
  15. IUsedToHateCold
    If rain is what you want then come down here east of the fall line. You will never need to worry about rain again
  16. IUsedToHateCold
    ENSO plays a role in the storm track. We’ve been flip flopping between cutters and suppression a lot during our La Niña winters. There have been a number of smaller or medium events some years that sometimes give us a decent winter, but a lack of epic storms directly hitting us (last was 2016) If this is another Niña winter I’d expect the same.
  17. IUsedToHateCold
    Massive damage in my neighborhood too, lots of trees and power lines down. Haven’t seen anything like this since the derecho
  18. IUsedToHateCold
    It definitely delivered. At least 50mph gusts (maybe more) , pea sized hail, and no power.
  19. IUsedToHateCold
  20. IUsedToHateCold
    I was literally 3 miles away and I didn't see it. :(. I just saw wall cloud and some wind.
  21. IUsedToHateCold
    I’ll make sure to keep the trophy on my wall . On to next winter
  22. IUsedToHateCold
    Woohoo! Never thought I'd ever have a chance of winning this thing.
  23. IUsedToHateCold
    All snow now, sticking to grass in Bowie. 33 degrees
  24. IUsedToHateCold
    And just like that, I’ve gone to a rain/sleet/snow mix here in Bowie. Fast changeover.
  25. IUsedToHateCold
    Rain here in Bowie. 36 degrees
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