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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    HUGE shift in the AK ridge from 6z to 12z (we want it more east. This is not the typical run to run shifts, but a bigger one. 12z 6z
  2. Terpeast
    Its gonna take a lot more shifting to make this one a hit. Not saying we’re out, but more of a long shot
  3. Terpeast
    Looks like a CAD event for our sub if the cold air holds like the 6z eps has trended towards as CAPE said above
  4. Terpeast
    Around 50% snowcover now. It was a good run.
  5. Terpeast
    Everybody is expecting the eagles to feed barkley and for him to run for 200+ yards. What if, just maybe, commanders stop barkley and hold him to less than 120 yards and pull out an upset over the eagles? Before saying that’ll never happen, remember what people were saying before the lions game.
  6. Terpeast
    With such big changes, its obvious the models are flip flopping. Weeklies don’t look all that great, but with the boundary closeby and the PV on our side of the globe, it doesn’t take big changes to bring us enough cold for snow. Best to watch trends over 4-8 model cycles than the shifts of each cycle.
  7. Terpeast
    Western ridging trending stronger at 360 va previous runs. Still need to keep an eye on the AK ridge and how that also trends. Looks to me the SE ridge end of run is more transient for now
  8. Terpeast
    Just took a quick look at the ens, it looks like we’ll have a NN week up to Jan 31, but dry. Then a mild first week of Feb, and then likely cold again after feb 6-7 when things might get interesting. By the first week of feb we should be tracking something.
  9. Terpeast
    FIFY. Not a fan of ice storms, but that’s me.
  10. Terpeast
    Low of 14, now 25. High clouds
  11. Terpeast
    Feels like the winters of my childhood years. I’m at around 60% of climo so far with roughly halfway to go
  12. Terpeast
    I remember that storm. 5 inches of cold smoke. Loved it
  13. Terpeast
    The snow got its sparkle back. I guess bitter cold temps does that. And the creek behind my house is frozen solid. Probably safe to skate on (not that I’ll actually do it)
  14. Terpeast
    Low of 2.8
  15. Terpeast
    I wasn’t here for 2014 (got back in late 2015 for almost a year till I went overseas for a while), so the last time for me here was 2004 I think. Not a lot of snowfall, but it was cold and icy. Kept the pack for a long time.
  16. Terpeast
    8 at 10 pm in ashburn
  17. Terpeast
    Might even make a run at 3 consecutive weeks with snow cover. Day 17 now
  18. Terpeast
    I’m not sure our friends in SoCal are going to like this.
  19. Terpeast
    Down to under 10 already. 9.9
  20. Terpeast
    21.8 for the high, real temp probably 20 if calibrated. Waiting for another month of data to do it properly. Lowest wind chill was -3 though Now 13
  21. Terpeast
    I was just thinking about this when bluewave kept mentioning the stronger pac jet. We saw the same last year when the pac jet verified stronger than forecast, and that actually hurt us in a nino by flooding the continent with mild pacific air almost the whole winter. Only when it relaxed a bit did we get a snowy week in Jan here. Now this time, the stronger pac jet is helping us because were not in a nino (cold enso/weak nina). In the long range, the models keep trying to weaken the jet and bring the PNA ridge west towards the aleutians. Then it all shifts east as it gets closer in time.
  22. Terpeast
    Recorded a wind chill of -1 as well
  23. Terpeast
    Paste bomb verbatim, yes. Let’s see how the temps trend if the wave holds as it gets closer.
  24. Terpeast
    Maybe it’s a mental thing or the air is thinner up there, but 20-30 doesn’t feel that cold in the rockies or sierras. But here, its freezing. One time in steamboat springs, we were swimming in the hot springs when it was 17 degrees out.
  25. Terpeast
    And 16th straight day of snow cover. Pleased with this January when expectations for this winter was super low.
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